San Antonio Spurs vs. LA Lakers Prediction (February 10th, 2026)
The Los Angeles Lakers are back in action on Tuesday night, where they will be big 8.5-point underdogs at home. DraftKings has the visiting San Antonio Spurs as -340 favorites, while the game total is a healthy 227.5.
San Antonio comes in as the second seed in the Western Conference. They’re 36-16 and just four games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs are on fire at the moment, having won four in a row and seven of their last 10.
L.A. will be tired and depleted for this one. Luka Doncic is likely to remain sidelined, while Austin Reaves is also tentatively expected to sit out after playing last night. The Lakers fell to the Thunder on Monday, but they’ve been solid (6-4) over their last 10 contests and presently cling to the 5th seed in the Western Conference.
Los Angeles is a poor bet to upset the Spurs at far less than 100%, but what is the best bet to target for this game? I’ll analyze the latest odds and highlight my favorite picks, while wrapping things up with a Spurs vs. Lakers prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: San Antonio Spurs (36-16) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (32-20)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, February 9th, at 9:30 pm (10:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southwest, NBATV, Spectrum Sports Net +, and Spectrum Sports Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs enter this game slated to be at full strength. Victor Wembanyama has been in and out of the lineup this year, but he’s healthy at the moment and has San Antonio in position to make a run for the #1 seed.
San Antonio is in strong form at the moment and will have the edge on OKC if they can close the gap and finish with the same record by year’s end. They’ll need to make sure they take care of business in winnable spots such as these, although it’s worth noting the Spurs struggle the most (16-10) on the road.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are limping into the break, as they have a solid 32-20 record, but are not at full strength at the moment. Luka Doncic powers an efficient offense, but he won’t be on hand for this one, while running mate Austin Reaves will also rest after playing last night.
L.A. should have LeBron James on hand, but even he isn’t a lock since this is the second leg of a back-to-back set. The Lakers need to find a way to steal this game, however, as they are at risk of sliding out of the top seven slots if they’re not careful.
As things stand, the Lakers are holding onto the 5th seed and will turn to a solid 14-9 home record as they try to fend off the superior Spurs.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Spurs have had the upper hand in this matchup this year, leading 2-1 so far. Both of their wins have been blowouts, while the Lakers did steal a tight 118-116 win back in November.
The all-time series has been very close. The Spurs and Lakers have battled each other 195 times in total, with Los Angeles holding a narrow 99-96 series lead.
This meeting is important for the Lakers, as a loss would hand the Spurs a commanding 3-1 series advantage for the year.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Wemby leads the charge for the Spurs with 23.7 points per game. He is far from alone, of course, as Stephon Castle is putting up 17 points and 7.1 assists per game, while De’Aaron Fox is averaging 19.4 points and 6.3 assists per game.
Castle in particular stood out in San Antonio’s last game, where he dropped an insane 40-point triple-double. The Spurs also have remarkable depth, with Devin Vassell, Justin Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, and rookie Dylan Harper all chipping in as needed.
San Antonio ranks 7th in scoring with 117.5 points per game, and they do a solid job of balancing their offensive attack. The Spurs are league average down low and at sharing the ball, while they dominate the glass, are 9th in transition, and dominate at the free throw line.
While capable from long range, the Spurs only shoot 34.9% from deep (21st) and are not overly reliant on the outside shot.
It’s tough to take the Lakers seriously in this game, as the absence of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves cuts out an insane 57+ points per game. Doncic’s style of play also creates opportunities for teammates and helps the Lakers rank 2nd in effective FG rate and first in free throw attempts per game.
L.A. will need to find offense elsewhere, but the aging LeBron James (21.8 ppg) could be on hand for this one. He may have to do some heavy-lifting as a scorer and playmaker, while the likes of Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Jake LaRavia, and newcomer Luke Kennard will be called upon much more than usual.
Los Angeles is not in an enviable spot, as most of their strengths are attached to Doncic being a huge piece to the puzzle. Without them, they may have to turn to big man Deandre Ayton for more production down low than expected, and their 19th-ranked three-point offense will need to be a bit more lively in a surprisingly favorable matchup.
The Spurs play at a modest pace, ranking 14th in the NBA. L.A. could speed things up with Luka sidelined, but they are typically on the slower side (25th).
The Spurs are the much better team on the defensive end of the floor. Wemby anchors the league’s 8th-best scoring defense and third-best unit in terms of defensive efficiency. The Spurs are tough in the paint (7th), limit teams on the break, and are imposing in the shot-blocking department.
Los Angeles ranks 17th in scoring defense and 22nd in efficiency. Doncic’s absence might boost their defensive aptitude, but they don’t defend the perimeter all that well, and they are poor on the interior.
- Deandre Ayton vs. Wemby: The Lakers need to find a way to hold onto some of their efficiency and continue to get to the line. Ayton’s usage should spike, so how productive he can be in a brutal matchup down low is going to be key for L.A.
- Lakers perimeter offense vs. Spurs perimeter defense: This is L.A.’s best path to success. They aren’t an elite three-point shooting team, but it is San Antonio’s only real defensive weakness. Kennard, Hachimura, and LaRavia all can heat up from long range and may have to in order to keep this game close.
- Spurs in Transition: Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox should look to push the pace with a positive matchup in front of them. The Spurs rank 9th in fastbreak points per game, and the Lakers are not good at slower teams down on the run.
The Spurs have been solid (28-23-2) against the spread. They’re 7-2 ATS with a rest advantage and 13-12-1 ATS on the road. They’re also 17-17-2 ATS when favored.
Los Angeles are about the same (29-23) against the spread. They are 4-4 ATS on no rest, 8-13 ATS as the underdog, and 13-10 ATS at home.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Spurs vs. Lakers betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | -9 (-108) | -335 | Over 227.5 (-110) |
Lakers | +9 (-112) | +270 | Under 227.5 (-110) |
The Spurs are the rightful favorite even though they’re on the road. The Lakers will be tired after playing last night, and they are likely going to be undermanned.
This total is interesting, as the Spurs have both a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense. The Lakers don’t defend well, but not having key players could make scoring a real issue.
From a Bettor’s Lens
There is not a lot of comfortable value associated with this game. The Spurs look like a strong bet to cover, though, as the Lakers could be without two crucial players. Heck, LeBron James could even end up sitting.
There’s always a chance they let Reaves and Doncic play. If that happens, it’d shake this game up, and we’d have to go back to square one.
Situational Considerations
The Lakers have not officially submitted their injury report at the time of this writing. My best guess is that Luka and Reaves won’t play. If they do, it changes how you bet on this game drastically.
San Antonio is expected to be at full strength for this game.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Spurs ATS -9 (-108) | We need the Lakers’ injury report to have full confidence, but assuming they’re shorthanded, they’ll have a very tough time keeping pace with the Spurs. | 7/10 |
Under 227.5 (-110) | If the Lakers are missing key guys, their offense should suffer greatly. San Antonio’s defense and the Lakers’ slow pace+negatively impacted offense caters to the Over. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Luke Kennard Over 2+ Made Threes (-141) | Kennard didn’t get it done with this same prop last night, but I’m willing to go back to the well. He can crush from long range, and San Antonio’s weakness is the three-point line. | 8/10 |
As betting lines shift for Spurs vs. Lakers, bettors search for value on the spread, total, and key player props. Compare updated odds at our top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 116, Los Angeles Lakers 106
My main Spurs vs. Lakers prediction is that San Antonio wins. It’s never easy to win on the road, but the Lakers won’t be at full strength, and the Spurs have the rest advantage.
You probably shouldn’t bet on the Spurs to win, though, as their -340 moneyline is pretty gross. Instead, I like them to cover the 8.5-point spread. The Under is also a good bet, but if we’re not worried about pricing, the top Spurs vs. Lakers pick has to be Kennard to make two or more three-pointers.
Overall, this is a bad spot for a tired Lakers team that doesn’t have all the pieces it needs to give a good Spurs team a serious fight.
