Duke vs. North Carolina CBB Prediction (February 7th, 2026)
One of the greatest college basketball rivalries picks back up on Saturday night, where DraftKings has the Duke Blue Devils as 5.5-point favorites to take down the rival North Carolina Tar Heels.
This classic ACC battle never gets old, while both teams being ranked inside the Top 25 certainly doesn’t hurt.
Duke enters at a stout 21-1 overall and undefeated (10-0) inside the ACC, while they are red hot after winning each of their last 10 games. North Carolina will try to snap that winning streak, of course, as they are a perfect 13-0 at home and desperately need a win to stay alive in the loaded ACC.
The Tar Heels are a strong 18-4 overall, but at 6-3 inside the conference, a loss could kill any shot of winning the regular-season conference title. This figures to be a huge game either way, as there is bad blood involved and high stakes in play.
Will the 4th-ranked Blue Devils live up to their billing as the betting favorites, or can #14 North Carolina defend their home court and stage the upset? I’ll comb through the latest odds and highlight the best bets for this game, while wrapping things up with a final Duke vs. North Carolina prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Duke Blue Devils (21-1) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (18-4)
- Date & Time: Saturday, February 7th, 2026, at 5:30 pm (6:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Early Season Performance & Trends
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils have been as good as advertised this year, racing out to a 10- record in the ACC and an elite 21-1 showing overall. This team is red hot at the moment, winning each of their last 10 games.
Duke has been unstoppable (7-0) on the road, and they’re not very far from home in this one. They’re taking on a familiar foe, while big man Cameron Boozer has been perhaps the best player in the country with 23.3 points and 9.9 rebounds per game.
The Blue Devils get sporadic contributions outside of their star forward, but they generate elite offense (84.1 points per game) and boast the 6th-best scoring defense in all of college basketball.
Duke’s elite balance and star power have allowed them to edge out some tough opponents, but more than anything, they’ve been dominant. They haven’t been truly tested since beating SMU 82-75, while their lone loss was an 82-81 thriller against a solid Texas Tech squad.
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have not been as good as the Blue Devils, but they’re far from bad. They’re also on fire at the moment with four straight wins, and enter this rivalry clash at a solid 18-4.
North Carolina has yet to fully find their footing in the ACC (6-3), but they have yet to lose (13-0) on their home court. The Tar Heels have the offense to match wits with Duke, but have had some serious lapses on the defensive side of the ball.
The Tar Heels boast their own freshman sensation, as star forward Caleb Wilson is churning out 20 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, and should match up with Boozer down low.
North Carolina can stomach a loss to a top-5 rival, but not if they want to win the conference. That may be a pipedream at this point, but there’s no doubt they’ll be motivated to get a big win at home.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
Few college basketball teams have a richer history than Duke and North Carolina, as this is arguably the greatest CBB rivalry of all time.
These two teams have faced off a remarkable 154 times in school history, with North Carolina holding an 85-69 all-time series lead. Duke is just 21-40 on the road in this particular matchup, but they’ve won three games in a row against the Tar Heels.
That hot run included a tense 74-71 win in a thriller last March, but the previous two wins were more one-sided. This will be the first meeting of the year between these two ACC foes, with the winner getting the ultimate bragging rights until they meet again.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Boozer leads the way for Duke’s offense, as he’s a good bet to crack 20 points no matter the matchup. He’s easily the top option for the Blue Devils, but he does get help from guard Isaiah Evans (14.1 ppg) and fellow big man Patrick Ngongba II (11 ppg).
Duke needs that trio to show up in big moments, as Caleb Foster (8.7 ppg) is the only other high-impact scorer in the rotation. Despite being top-heavy on offense, the Blue Devils rank 29th in scoring and are 5th in point differential.
The Blue Devils are highly efficient, as they own the country’s 15th-best Effective FG percentage (57.4%) and are very tough to stop inside the paint. They get to the free-throw line at a decent rate, but do not convert well when they get there.
Duke is an interior-based offense, as they rank 82nd in three-pointers attempted per game and shoot just 33.8% from long range (191st). They share the ball extremely well (36th in assists per game) and execute their offense at a high level.
The Tar Heels are very similar to Duke, as they are not a high-volume offense from the perimeter and do most of their damage inside. Caleb Wilson is the driving force for an offense that is about as productive as Duke (39th in scoring), and also shares the ball (33rd in assists) well.
North Carolina is a bit deeper than the Blue Devils, while they also rely on an efficient and methodical attack. They’re impossibly worse than Duke at converting at the charity stripe, but they’re slightly better at getting there more frequently.
One huge advantage the Tar Heels have against most teams they face is how they take care of the ball. North Carolina commits just 9.5 turnovers per game (19th fewest), making it tough for defenses to stop them when they aren’t shooting themselves in the foot.
Duke is not a fast-paced offense, as they come into this matchup ranked just 221st in pace of play. North Carolina also isn’t super fast, but they aren’t nearly as slow as Duke (135th).
Defensively, Duke is a real handful. They rank 6th in scoring with just 63.6 points allowed per game, and they also clean the glass exceptionally well (24th). They don’t commit bad fouls or let their opponent dominate at the free-throw line, either.
The Blue Devils force you to shoot from long range thanks to being a top-10 defense inside, but they close out extremely well. They give up 26.3 long ball attempts per game, but allow just a 30.8% three-point percentage (46th).
North Carolina isn’t as smothering as Duke, as they rank 74th with 70.6 points allowed per game. Their slightly faster pace plays into that to a degree, but they’re not good at defending the three. Like Duke, they are strong on the inside and are also a very good rebounding team (23rd).
- Battle of the Boards: Who wins the rebounding battle could seriously decide this game. These teams rank 24th and 23rd on the glass, so it will be quite a fight for positioning when shots go up.
- Free Throw Battle: Neither of these teams make a living at the free throw line, but they get there at a fine enough rate. Their conversion rates stink, while both teams are elite at preventing free trips to the charity stripe. It’s going to be a close call, but who can get to the line more and hit their freebies will be huge.
- Boozer vs. Wilson: Boozer has been the more prolific and more dominant player, but these two top-shelf prospects have yet to face off in college basketball. We’re getting a matchup for the ages, and whoever wins out will have a huge say in what the other side does or doesn’t do inside the paint.
The Blue Devils have been dominant, but not necessarily against the spread. They’re a decent 13-9 ATS overall, but they’re just 12-9 ATS when favored and 6-4 ATS inside the ACC.
Duke has been quite good ATS on the road (6-1), but they are just 4-4 against the spread against fellow ranked opponents.
North Carolina is 13-0 on their home floor, but they’re just 8-5 against the spread at home. The Tar Heels are also 12-10 against the spread overall and 2-2 ATS as the underdog.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Duke vs. North Carolina betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Duke | -5.5 (-105) | -230 | Over 151.5 (-112) |
North Carolina | +5.5 (-115) | +190 | Under 151.5 (-108) |
Duke is a sizable favorite despite facing a good team on the road. This spread is a bit thicker than I’d have thought, but the Blue Devils have one loss on the year and are riding a 10-game winning streak.
The game total is solid at 150.5, with DraftKings likely trying to balance two quality offenses with a very stingy Duke defense.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Duke is a pretty easy pick to win at -250, but nobody is feeling good about that price. That brings me to the point spread, which instantly has me leaning toward the Tar Heels due to their home dominance and ability to match up so well with the Blue Devils.
Duke can play elite defense, and they play slow, so I understand the total not being out of control. Given the intensity of this game – and the last meeting only totaling 145 points – the Under narrowly passes the eye test.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
North Carolina ATS +5.5 (-115) | Duke is on fire, and although North Carolina matches up well with them, I still think they’re the better team. This bet is best served as part of a parlay, or if you’re laying big money, so it’s not for everyone. | 7/10 |
Under 151.5 (-108) | Duke plays slow and can defend as well as anyone. Neither team tends to be lights out from long range, either. Look for a more methodical and gritty game that hits the Under. | 7/10 |
Duke ML (-230) | Duke is on fire, and although North Carolina matches up well with them, I still think they’re the better team. This bet is best served as part of a parlay, or if you’re laying big money, so it’s not for everyone. | 8/10 |
Odd lines are changing for Duke vs. North Carolina as bettors react to UNC’s home dominance and Duke’s win streak. Track line movement at our trusted sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Duke Blue Devils 73, North Carolina Tar Heels 70
My main Duke vs. North Carolina prediction is that the Tar Heels beat the spread. I think 5.5 points is a bit much, given these teams match up so well, and this game is in Chapel Hill.
Both teams have a superstar to lean on, but the Tar Heels also have their home crowd and are a bit more balanced. Duke can slow the game down, play elite defense, and attack inside, but the strengths and weaknesses of these two ACC rivals are so similar.
Look for it to be very close and not decided until late, but I like Duke to escape with a win, NC to beat the spread, and the Under to deliver.
