Super Bowl MVP Odds with Top Picks & Prediction

Super Bowl 60 is less than two weeks away. Betting on the Big Game is a tradition unlike any other, and predicting who will win the Super Bowl MVP award goes right into that.

Except, this is usually one of the safest bets you can place on the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks almost always win Super Bowl MVP, so the only thing you really need to do is decide which team will win.

The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will square off in the 2026 Super Bowl, meaning all eyes will be on quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Drake Maye. While history suggests one of them will win the Super Bowl MVP, bettors need to either decide which one, or bet on something crazy happening.

To dive into it, let’s look at the latest Super Bowl MVP odds. Who is the Super Bowl MVP favorite, the top contenders, and some sleeper bets? I’ll go over it all, point you to the best bets for the market, and cap things off with a final Super Bowl MVP prediction.

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds for 2026

These are the top 10 players in terms of Super Bowl 60 MVP odds. They are the best bets to win the award, but that definitely doesn’t mean bettors should stop here.

Still, quarterbacks almost always win the Super Bowl MVP, so starting with Sam Darnold vs. Drake Maye is wise. Looking back, a quarterback has claimed the hardware from the winning side in each of the last three seasons and eight times since 2015.

It's been NINE consecutive years that we've seen a QB or WR win Super Bowl MVP – Is another position destined to win it in Super Bowl LX? 👀 pic.twitter.com/LAVBTBf3TD

— theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) January 27, 2026

It is not necessarily as much of a “quarterback award” as the regular-season NFL MVP award tends to be, but if the quarterback has a good game and his team wins, he will most likely be the winner.

However, where value can arise is when there is a potential defensive battle and/or if there are skill position players with huge performances. This game offers paths to both of those, meaning while Darnold and Maye stand out as the top picks, they’re not the only players worth betting on.

I’ll go over the most viable Super Bowl MVP betting candidates, but first, let’s break down why Sam Darnold is the favorite for this year.

Why is Sam Darnold the Super Bowl MVP Favorite?

The easiest answer for this question is that Darnold is the quarterback for the team currently favored to win Super Bowl XL.

Darnold has a really strong narrative backing him, even besides that, though, as he’s had an amazing season. Even more important, of course, is his label as a former draft bust.

The New York Jets made Darnold the top pick in the NFL Draft back in 2018, and things did not work out with the franchise. Darnold then bounced around the league and seemed to be on his way out before resurrecting his career last year with the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota tossed him aside, and he was forced to once again start over with Seattle. Luckily for him, he churned out his second straight stellar campaign and is now in a position to complete a full 180 on his NFL career.

Needless to say, it will be extremely hard for the Super Bowl MVP voters to bypass him if his team wins and he has even a small hand in it.

Should Darnold play well and Seattle emerge victorious, it would be a shock if he didn’t get the award. In fact, it would probably require an outlier performance by someone else on his team, and/or a very weak statistical output from him.

That is not impossible, however, which is why anyone looking to bet on the Super Bowl MVP winner needs to turn over every stone.

Is Darnold the rightful favorite? Yes. He’s also a stellar value, all things considered, but let’s consider all options before dropping a Super Bowl MVP prediction.

Top Super Bowl MVP Contenders

• Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (+235)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (+550)
• Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks (+650)

Sam Darnold is the favorite to win the 2026 Super Bowl MVP award, but not by much. Right behind him is Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is following in Tom Brady’s footsteps.

There’s also JSN and Kenneth Walker III, two players on the favored Seahawks who have displayed explosive upside. If they outshine Darnold in a win, they could easily get the nod.

These are your main Super Bowl XL MVP contenders, and they’re the only players coming in below +1000. Here’s a breakdown of each and why they can win the MVP award:

Why Drake Maye Can Win Super Bowl MVP

Maye can make even more interesting history, as a win would make him the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback in NFL history. Adding the MVP trophy would be a nice bonus, and at +235, he looks like a legitimate threat to do so.

What needs to happen? First, the Pats need to beat the Seahawks. Second, Maye probably needs to be the reason why New England wins. Making that happen could actually be more difficult than expected, too. Not only are the Patriots running into an elite Seattle defense, but Maye will need to have one of the best games of his life despite not being 100%.

Is Drake Maye surprised by all of the conversation about his shoulder?

"I mean, it's the right shoulder of a starting quarterback of an NFL team."

He gets it pic.twitter.com/lRymXwH99l

— Nicole Menner (@NicoleMenner) January 29, 2026

Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury that until now hasn’t generated a lot of buzz. That’s another thing that aids his case. If Maye balls out, he looks even better. If he simply guts out a tough performance and his team wins a low-scoring defensive battle and nobody else shines, he’d be the MVP almost by default.

New England hasn’t looked good on offense in their playoff run. You could argue that they’ve won these games despite Maye and the offense’s performance. But if their defense stifles Seattle and Maye doesn’t shoot himself in the foot, he’d still be the likely MVP winner.

Why JSN Can Win Super Bowl MVP

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has enjoyed an insane third NFL season. The second you thought he flashed his ceiling in 2024, he blew you away with a disgusting 119-1,793-10 stat line.

The only thing JSN can do for an encore is go crush in the biggest game of his life. He just did that against the Rams in the NFC title game, where he hauled in 10 passes for 153 yards and a score.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 of 12 targets for a team-high 153 receiving yards and a TD against the Rams.

JSN caught at least one pass against six different Rams defenders in coverage, and caught all 6 targets for 105 yards when aligned out wide.#LARvsSEA | @Seahawks pic.twitter.com/28SFLsbelN

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2026

Smith-Njigba is borderline uncoverable. He has a stiff test ahead of him against Christian Gonzalez, but he has the speed and jaw-dropping route-running to gain separation even in the toughest of spots.

Wide receivers can win the Super Bowl MVP award, too. We just saw Cooper Kupp do it a few years ago with the Rams, while Julian Edelman and Deion Branch won it for the Patriots in previous seasons.

Behind quarterbacks, the wide receiver position has racked up the most MVP wins in the Super Bowl. JSN could be next.

Why Kenneth Walker III Can Win Super Bowl MVP

The other compelling Super Bowl MVP contender is Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III. It’s not necessarily about building a strong case in his favor, but more about creating a narrative in the event the award doesn’t go to a quarterback.

If the Super Bowl MVP winner isn’t one of the quarterbacks and JSN doesn’t nab it, then we could be looking at a situation where the defenses dominate or a running back goes off.

Walker has flashed special ability, as he teed off on the San Francisco 49ers (3 TDs) a few weeks ago.

KEN WALKER III LEGACY GAME:

– 22 Touches
– 145 Yards
– 3 TD’s

He looked electric today, averaging 6.1 Yards Per Carry..

Seattle’s headed to the NFC Championship after their 41-6 Win over San Francisco

Pure dominance from start to finish pic.twitter.com/riuAjbDWJf

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbott) January 18, 2026

New England’s run defense is solid, but they can still give up some production, and if Walker hits home run plays like he’s capable of, their rankings against the run could ultimately be meaningless.

Someone is going to dominate this game. If someone from the passing game doesn’t, then banking on Walker popping off for some big gains and being the catalyst for a Seahawks win is an interesting way to bet on this market.

5 Sneaky Super Bowl MVP Sleeper Picks

• Rashid Shaheed (+2800)
• Stefon Diggs (+6000)
• TreVeyon Henderson (+7500)
• Cooper Kupp (+9000)
• Christian Gonzalez (+10000)

Want to seek out even more betting value for this market? You certainly have options in front of you. But if you want a sleeper bet that makes sense, I’d start with the five guys listed above.

First, there’s Shaheed. He isn’t very involved in Seattle’s offense from a volume perspective, but he has the speed to take any touch to the house and could easily make his presence felt in the return game.

Shaheed is a very interesting Super Bowl MVP sleeper pick, although I wish he had more appealing odds.

Someone like Diggs is more interesting at a +6000 price tag. Diggs has had an up-and-down career and has changed teams a handful of times. He could finally have his shining moment on the biggest stage of his career, and if he shows out, he just might take home the hardware.

The same could be said for guys like Henderson or Kupp. Henderson is a pivot away from Kenneth Walker III. We can use that same logic and apply it to the explosive rookie back, albeit with a much more alluring price.

Kupp is a greybeard whose best days are admittedly behind him, but he has a Super Bowl MVP in his back pocket already.

He also may be called upon more than you’d think, especially given New England’s elite secondary. Could the Pats go so far out of their way to slow down JSN that Kupp racks up catches and makes a huge impact? It’s not impossible.

Lastly, let Christian Gonzalez represent all of the possibilities via any defensive players in this Super Bowl. He stands out due to his price, plus the task ahead of him. If he can successfully slow down JSN in a low-scoring game, he could get the nod. He would improve his chances even more if he can nab a pick from Darnold, while a pick-6 would cement it.

Darnold is known for turning the ball over, and this game features the top two defenses in the NFL, so a defensive Super Bowl MVP winner isn’t that crazy.

Who Typically Wins the Super Bowl MVP?

As noted before, this is basically a quarterback award, and it’s been more so the case over the last 20 years.

Still, other positions can win, depending on how the game plays out. Here are things to consider when looking at game flow and expected result:

• Huge statistical performances
• Surprise x-factors
• Low-scoring defensive battles
• Momentum-swinging plays

This is actually the exact type of Super Bowl matchup where we want to consider how and why an outlier would make sense.

We have the two best scoring defenses in football, two very good units at preventing big plays, and two offenses that thrive off of splash plays. It creates a really tough environment to project, so while betting on the QBs remains the safest path, taking stabs at seemingly random bets makes a lot of sense.

Avoiding defensive players in general is still probably wise, but given the makeup of this particular matchup, you can’t completely rule it out.

That said, based on history, quarterbacks are most likely to win, followed by wide receivers and running backs. Never say never, but kickers and tight ends are a waste of your time. You can take your shots on defensive players, though.

Super Bowl MVP Betting Tips

Okay, so you’re ready to bet on who will win the Super Bowl 2026 MVP award. You should have a good amount of information to nudge you in the right direction, but consider these tips before finalizing your bets:

• Quarterbacks Usually Win
• Game Script is Everything
• WRs > RBs for Outlier Bets
• Defensive MVPs Require Chaos
• Narrative > Boxscore

Quarterbacks win this award most of the time, so plan most of your Super Bowl MVP bets accordingly. That doesn’t mean you should ignore certain context, but if a game sets up for either quarterback to have success, your main goal then becomes nailing the one who wins.

It’s not easy to predict how games will go in the NFL, but projecting things is key to identifying the right MVP pick. This is especially important for non-QB bets. If you’re betting on a specific player, ask yourself how many things need to go right in order for them to win. How much of an outlier does their performance need to be?

When going against the grain, start with the positions that make the most sense after quarterback. Based on history, that’s wide receivers, then running backs. Wide receivers have easier paths to racking up gaudy stat lines, as receptions are valued higher than rushing attempts.

The real trick – especially for a game like Super Bowl 60 – is gauging how likely it is that a defensive player could win. Then consider what their path to winning would be, and what goes into that route. Defensive stats and scores are key, while momentum-swinging plays can offer momentum to obscure players.

Lastly, don’t forget about narrative. It’s the lifeblood of sports in general, so while all players start out with a chance to win the Super Bowl MVP, a few have stronger narratives to fall back on.

For instance, Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp, and even Stefon Diggs have redemption arcs. Drake Maye could become the youngest Super Bowl-winning quarterback of all time, and on it goes.

Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners

Who Will Win the Super Bowl MVP in 2026?

You know what the likely path to the Super Bowl MVP is. Quarterback dominates this award, the winning team’s passer gets the nod, and narratives are a big deal. Due to these things, if the Seahawks live up to their status as this year’s Super Bowl favorite, I think Sam Darnold walks away with the hardware.

Darnold is a former #2 overall draft pick, and while he flamed out with the New York Jets, the talent was always there. It took a while for him to be fully tapped into, but the player we’ve seen the last two years is borderline elite.

From a talent and narrative perspective, Darnold passes the eye test. And he happens to be on the best team. He can carry Seattle if he has to, but thanks to an explosive ground game, a superstar wide receiver, and a smothering defense, that may not end up being the case.

There’s still some wiggle room for obscure players to rise up and win bettors a lot of money. But if we approach this year’s Super Bowl MVP betting market appropriately, there’s only one answer.

2026 Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Sam Darnold (+125)