Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 Prediction (January 31st, 2026)
The UFC and Paramount+ continue their partnership with an epic kickoff schedule for 2026, as UFC 325 hopes to match what we got out of UFC 324.
That might be difficult, but the main event between Alexander Volanovski and Diego Lopes certainly qualifies as a strong attempt. The two will face off with the featherweight title on the line. Volkanovski enters as the champion after claiming the vacant title in his last bout, which was a Decision win versus Diego Lopes back at UFC 314.
Volkanovski controlled that fight to regain his featherweight title, but it is fair to wonder if the 37-year-old can fend off Lopes for a second time in a row. Lopes, meanwhile, is six years younger and is fresh off a thrilling TKO win over the explosive Jean Silva.
No matter which side you’re leaning toward, the value is exceptional. You can get the tried and true Volkanovski as a -148 favorite at DraftKings, or aim a bit higher with Lopes as a +124 underdog. Both have a compelling argument, but I’ll go over this matchup to gauge the right way to bet.
Need help betting on the Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes rematch? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll inspect the latest pricing, highlight the best bets for this fight, and cap things off with a final Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 325
- When: Saturday, January 31
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney Olympic Park Australia
- Schedule:Main Card – 9:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC 325 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Alexander Volkanovski | -142 |
Diego Lopes | +120 |
Fight Goes the Distance | Yes (+100) | No (-130) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+140) | Submission (+380) | Decision (+100) | Draw +5000 |
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds suggest Volkanovski is tentatively expected to defend his featherweight title, which is something he’s done successfully five times in the past. He is the older fighter, but he is getting credit for being the champion, as well as for his most recent win, which was over Lopes.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 is not favored to go the distance, yet the favored method of victory is a Decision. The value on that fight is the same, even though the bet availability is a bit odd.
With the fight favored to end early, a knockout by either side is the most likely result, per the pricing at DraftKings.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski is a living legend, as he’s now won the featherweight title twice, and he’s taken out some mean dudes throughout his career. He’s an elite pressure striker with exceptional takedown defense and the ability to finish fights early.
His age could be starting to show, of course, as he has just one KO win in his last six fights and has also lost three bouts during that stretch. They’ve come against top-shelf competition, however, as Ilia Topuria got him with a punch and Islam Makhachev took him out twice.
It’s pretty arguable that Diego Lopes isn’t the same type of challenge, however. This fight could be the precursor to an even bigger title fight for Volkanovski, and if he looks like he did the last time he fought, he could live up to his billing as the betting favorite.
Stylistically, Volkanovski is built to last, and he can make any fighter panic with his aggressive striking. He’s also frustrating to face due to his takedown defense and ability to manipulate angles and switch up his approach.
That all makes him the favorite, but Volkanovski’s chin has softened in recent years. He’s been KO’d three times in his career, but two of them have come since 2023. Inactivity could also be an issue for the aging star, as he has not entered the Octagon since facing Lopes last April, while Lopes got some good work in against a dangerous fighter in September.
Diego Lopes
Lopes is a fun contrast to Volkanovski, as he is an elite jiu-jitsu artist who can score quick takedowns and dominate on the ground. He is a much more versatile fighter than the guy he’s facing, and he is often open to chaotic exchanges, which can see his fights end in a hurry.
We saw that in his last bout, as he dropped a spinning back elbow on Jean Silva and got a shocking TKO victory. Lopes can be a violent fighter with his fists (11 KOs), while his ability to get the fight to the mat (12 submissions) also can’t be ignored.
Volkanovski’s elite takedown defense might be able to curb that part of Lopes’ game, seeing as he’s never been submitted in his career and managed to thwart off Diego’s attempts the last time they faced.
Lopes is also not as disciplined as Volkanovski, making this a tough matchup to gauge. Can he drop a shocking KO or surprise with a counter that turns into a submission? Of course, but based on how both of these guys fight, the most likely path to a win is a wild knockout or somehow winning on points.
Tale of the Tape
| Alexander Volkanovski | Diego Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 27-4 | 27-7 |
Height | 5’6” | 5’11” |
Reach | 71.5” | 72.5” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Style | Striker | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu |
Both fighters have strong records and plenty of experience. We’ve literally seen this battle before, too, so we know the height and reach difference is not a huge issue for Volkanovski.
The contrasting styles benefited Volkanovski the first time around, but Lopes definitely had his moments. In what was ultimately a fairly close fight, Lopes needs to be seriously considered for the upset.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Check out some key Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes matchup angles for this bout:
- Embrace Chaos: Volkanovski is going to apply pressure and hold the overall striking edge, but his chin has weakened with age, and Lopes did drop him in their first matchup. If (or when) this rematch gets crazy, Lopes’ explosive nature could rise up in the midst of a chaotic exchange.
- Keep Shooting: Lopes is a strong bet to end this fight if he can get control on the mat. It’s actually getting Volkanovski to the canvas that is the problem. He did have some moments in the first fight where it looked like he could make it happen. If he can capitalize on those in the rematch, he could deliver Volkanovski’s first submission loss of his career.
- Early Barrage: Volkanovski is older, but he has a pretty deep gas tank and knows how to control fights. If this fight gets out of the third round, I’d be confident in Alexander winning in some manner. Lopes needs to rely on his youth, athleticism, and explosiveness to put pressure on the champ early. If he can get to him out of the gates, he has a chance to finish him like Topuria and Makhachev did.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes bets for this weekend:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Diego Lopes ML (+120) | Lopes was closer to taking out Volkanovski than people care to admit. He rattled him in the second round and while Alexander regrouped, I see a path to a Lopes win via KO. Anytime we have an aging fighter with a weakening chin, I’m going to consider the underdog. In this case, Lopes is the better athlete, he’s more explosive, and he has more paths to victory. | 6/10 |
Fight to Not Finish Inside the Distance (-130) | One way or another, I don’t think this one lasts five rounds. Both fighters can knock the other out, while Lopes is lethal on the mat if he can score a takedown. | 8/10 |
Method of Victory – KO (+140) | The best path for a Lopes win – and the most realistic finish for this bout – is a knockout. Volkanovski is the better pure striker and the more patient fighter, but he will leave some open spots, and he’s been KO’d twice in his last three fights. Lopes is a finishing machine and just rocked Jean Silva, too. | 7/10 |
As betting lines change for Volkanovski vs Lopes 2, bettors search for value beyond the moneyline. Monitor odds movement at trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 picks could fail:
- Patience is a Virtue: It’s possible Volkanovski just comes out and dominates. He can be very patient, decisive, and in control. If that’s the guy we get, he could just chip away for five rounds, and that would end up killing all of my Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes picks.
- One Path: Another potential issue is the fact that in this particular matchup, Diego Lopes realistically only has one path to victory. Volkanovski doesn’t get taken down, and the fight going five rounds favors his striking edge greatly. The narrow path to success could be very problematic for some ambitious bets.
- Mismatch: The glaring problem is that these guys are different stylistically. Lopes is more explosive and more versatile, but he’s not necessarily better than Volkanovski at any of the stuff he does well. His floor game is strong, but Volkanovski’s defense is better. He can knock you out, but Volkanovski is the superior striker.
The Bottom Line: Diego Lopes Shocks the World, Sends Volkanovski into Retirement
Maybe I am being overly ambitious about the retirement part. Perhaps I’m also not taking into account (enough) that this fight is in Volkanovski’s own backyard in Australia.
But he’s also 37 years old, hasn’t fought in nearly a year, and has been rocked more than anyone cares to admit lately. Specifically, Lopes got him in their first bout, and I see a path to victory if he can send him stumbling again.
Lopes is not a guy we should feel good about in this matchup if the fight goes deep. Volkanovski will unleash more volume with his fists, he will be more accurate, he will inflict damage, and he’ll keep Lopes at bay in terms of his takedown attempts.
But Lopes is not going to shy away from a scrap. He is going to meet Volkanovski’s pressure, and he will deliver some damage as well. That is where his explosiveness and youth could give him the edge, and at his price, I am willing to pounce.
I definitely agree that Volkanovski is the more polished fighter and that the path to success with Lopes is thin. But sometimes the writing is on the wall, and we need to strike while the iron is hot.
After taking a very good fighter like Jean Silva out the way Lopes did, the sky’s the limit for him. And yes, that includes the possibility of becoming the fourth fighter to get the better of Volkanovski via KO.
Final Prediction Summary
- Fight Winner – Diego Lopes +120 | Confidence: 6/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No -130 | Confidence: 8/10
- Method of Victory – Knockout +140 | Confidence: 7/10
