Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien Prediction – Australian Open (Saturday, January 24th, 2026)
The fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open may cause some people to do a double-take. Tennis fans get an epic rematch ahead of the quarter-finals, as a Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien showdown is going down for the second year in a row.
Tien got the last laugh in this matchup last time out, as he knocked off Medvedev in round two in an intense five-set match that lasted a whopping five hours. They’ll probably hope this one doesn’t drain them quite as much, but tennis fans are still in for a slugfest.
Medvedev got her on the heels of an insane comeback, as he went down 0-2 against Fabian Marozsan and battled back to win 6-7, 4-6, 7-5, 6-0, 6-3. He will seek revenge against Tien, while a win would even up their overall series (Tien leads, 2-1).
Tien’s trip to the fourth round of the Australian Open wasn’t dripping with theatrics. His tilt with Nuno Borges was much more straightforward, as he outlasted him in the first set (7-6) and then coasted (6-4, 6-2) to the win.
This will be a much-hyped rematch, particularly due to the previous matchup between these two, but also due to what is at stake. Think Tien is a lock to stay dominant in this series, or feel Medvedev will get his revenge? I’ll help you pick a side as I comb through the odds and key matchup angles en route to a Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien prediction.
Match Details
- Matchup: Daniil Medvedev (#11) vs. Learner Tien (#25)
- Date: Saturday, January 24
- Venue: Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
- Tournament: Australian Open
- Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
- Surface: Hard court (specifically GreenSet, a cushioned acrylic)
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien odds over at FanDuel:
- Daniil Medvedev: -230
- Learner Tien: +188
- Medvedev Games Won: Over 20.5 (-115) | Under 20.5 (-120)
- Tien Games Won: Over 18.5 (-120) | Under 18.5 (-120)
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds indicate a win for Daniil Medvedev. The odds favor him to get 21 wins and win this match, while the best odds also favor him sweeping this rematch 3:0 (+215).
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Daniil Medvedev
The 29-year old Medvedev has done well at the Australian Open. He reached the final here in 2024, 2022, and 2021, and if it wasn’t for Tien, perhaps he’d have made another run last year.
Tien has been a thorn in his side in a small sample size, but Medvedev is in his physical prime and is the more experienced tennis player. He only has one grand slam title to his name, but he has excelled in this tournament, and it could be just a matter of time before he finally catches the trophy.
Getting past his new nemesis would mean a trip to the quarter-finals at the very least, and his recent form indicates it’s plenty possible. He’s definitely battle-tested after a hard-fought win to get to this point, while he had been displaying stellar form in 2025 thanks to a trip to the Indian Wells final and his first win in over two years at the Almaty Open.
That win didn’t just end his tournament-winning drought, but it marked improvement after making a tough coaching change. He parlayed his 2025 success into an early win to kick off the 2026 season, as he just got done taking down the 2025 Brisbane title.
Medvedev looks like a player reborn at the moment, making him tough to bet against as he prepares to get revenge on a familiar foe.
Learner Tien
Tien hasn’t had as difficult a road to this point in the Australian Open, and he has the 2-1 series edge on his opponent. Right away, the 20-year-old is a pretty compelling upset pick at his fun +182 price.
That said, he has not been a very dominant player in his career. He only has 42 professional tennis wins to his name, and he’s only claimed one tournament title. He’s also failed to reach a single final in any grand slam event, while this fourth round match equals his best run at the Australian Open – same as last year.
Tien could be working his way to a dream run, of course, and knocking out a guy he’s beaten twice already could elevate him to his best finish yet in this event.
There’s no denying that Tien built a case for positive momentum coming into the Australian Open. Last year was his best on the professional tennis circuit, as he secured his first ATP title at the Moselle Open. Last year also saw him down 2-seeded Alexander Zverev in a tournament.
Head-to-Head Record
| Daniil Medvedev | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 1 | 2 |
Losses | 2 | 1 |
Total Wins | 425 | 42 |
Grand Slams | 1 | 0 |
These guys have faced off three times now. Despite having a grand slam title win and way more experience, Medvedev has failed to win two out of three times.
Experience isn’t going to be enough in this one. Tien is clearly on the rise and has been a problem that Medvedev needs to find a way to solve to advance.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Let’s investigate the key Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien matchup favors to decide who will win and how you need to bet:
- Baseline battle: Medvedev loves to play deep. If he accomplishes that, he holds a defensive edge. If not, Tien could dominate baseline territory and draw Daniil in.
- Serve + rally: Medvedev has an excellent serve that can be overpowering. The key will come how Tien performs in rallies. He has an edge in the serve game, but Tien can end rallies early due to his athleticism. Maintaining composure and making sound decisions – and extending rallies – is key to Medvedev outlasting Tien.
- Sustained consistency: Medvedev is at his best when he plays controlled and avoids silly mistakes. Tien is going to push the pace, but if Daniil can stay back and keep the game in front of him, he slows things down and maintains control.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien picks at the 2026 Australian Open:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Daniil Medvedev ML (-230) | Good rivalries need wins from both sides. Tien has the leg up and won an instant classic last time out, but it was extremely close. Look for Daniil to learn from that game and find a way to get the job done. | 7/10 |
Tien Over 18.5 Games Won (-120) | A nice hedge is to also bet on Tien to win 19 games. It is very possible we get a repeat of what we saw in this same matchup last year. Men’s tennis is best of five, so if these sets are close, I can see Tien getting to 19 wins even in defeat. And if he flat-out beats Medvedev, then we have a nice hedge to lean on. | 6/10 |
Set Betting – Medvedev 3:2 (+400) | Here’s to betting on another classic. I do think Medvedev will bounce back and even this series up at 2-2, but Tien won’t make it easy on him. Tien is very good at finishing points early, and he can fly around the court. His athleticism and ability to apply pressure should keep this very competitive. | 6/10 |
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Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong in tennis betting. Here’s how my Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien bets could miss the mark:
- No Rivalry: There’s certainly a world where Medvedev simply doesn’t figure Tien out. If that happens, we could get a close match, but one that ultimately goes to the underdog.
- Dominance: Even if Daniil wins, like I think he will, he could be out for revenge and seek to destroy Tien. That could lead to a lopsided affair and Tien failing to get 19 wins.
- No Doubt: In addition, if Medvedev comes out with a vengeance and executes too well, it’s definitely possible we don’t get a repeat of what we saw last year. A fast start could pave the way for a 3-1 or 3-0 win, and our last bet would fail.
The Bottom Line: Medvedev Gets Revenge, Reaches QF
Tien is definitely a problem for Medvedev, and you can make the case that he is stylistically a total mismatch. The fact that he is left-handed, dominates the baseline, can win from all over the court, and also applies so much pressure – all of that is absolutely problematic for Medvedev.
That said, Medvedev still has a lethal serve, he counters well, and he has the ability to extend rallies to the point of exhaustion for his opponent. If he can do that and be consistent, the best Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien prediction is that the Russian gets the win.
Based on narrative alone, I think Medvedev is a really good bet. You can hedge slightly with Tien at 19 games won, and I like the idea of this thing going the distance, but all roads lead back to Daniil evening this series up and pushing on at the 2026 Australian Open.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Daniiel Medvedev -230 | Confidence: 7/10
- Games Won – Tien Over 18.5 (-120) | Confidence 6/10
- Set Betting – Medvedev 3:2 +400| Confidence: 6/10
