Phoenix Suns vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction & Best Bets (Friday, January 23rd, 2026)
The Phoenix Suns travel to Georgia to battle the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, where DraftKings has them as mild 2.5-point favorites.
Phoenix comes in at 27-17 with a strong defense and no serious health issues, but are just 13-12 away from home. They are in good form, however, as they’ve won their last three games and are 7-3 over their last 10.
Atlanta is still trying to find their way in the Eastern Conference at 21-25, as they are settled into the 10th seed at the moment. Their main hope at this point is to get into the NBA Play-In tourney, but losing any number of games would work against that plan.
So, are the Suns an easy bet despite their road struggles, or should bettors back Jalen Johnson and the Hawks? I’ll look at the latest odds and key matchups to find the best bets for this game, while capping things off with a final Suns vs. Hawks prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Phoenix Suns (27-17) vs. Atlanta Hawks (21-25)
- Date & Time: Friday, January 23rd, at 6:30 pm (7:30 pm ET)
- Venue: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA
- How to Watch: Arizona’s Family 3TV, FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, NBA League Pass and Suns Live
Early Season Performance & Trends
Phoenix Suns
The Suns traded Kevin Durant before the season and haven’t gotten much out of the guy they acquired (Jalen Green) due to injury. Most would assume Phoenix would be struggling, but a transformation into a gritty defensive unit has saved the franchise.
Devin Booker still headlines a capable offense that can burn you from deep, but a well-coached team that takes no prisoners on defense is the driving force behind a 27-17 start.
It remains to be seen if the Suns have enough to make a deep playoff push in the ultra-competitive Western Conference, but they still have an outside shot at winning their division and earning a top seed.
Heading into this particular matchup, they are in strong form, but a troubling road record raises an eyebrow for bettors.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks finally moved on from superstar guard Trae Young, but only time will tell if fully embracing Jalen Johnson as the team’s franchise cornerstone was the right call.
Early signs indicate yes, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. Atlanta remains a tough team to trust on defense, while their offensive output can be sporadic. They haven’t been on top of their game with a 4-6 mark of their last 10 contests, either.
Despite being a team somewhat in transition, the Hawks are competitive and are within striking distance of making the NBA playoffs. They could use a big home win against a superior opponent to boost their overall confidence as well.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Suns and Hawks don’t play in the same conference, but they’ve still faced each other 141 times. Phoenix holds the all-time edge at 77-64, but it’s been all Atlanta lately.
The Hawks won the only meeting this year in a wild 124-122 shootout, while they also won 122-117 last year. Phoenix stole the other meeting last season (123-115), showcasing a trend of shootouts when these two sides go to battle.
Overall, the Hawks are 5-2 in this series over the last seven games, but they are weirdly just 1-3 in the last four games at home against the Suns.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Devin Booker isn’t forcing it as much as he has in the past on offense, and it’s led to a more cohesive system. He’s still a top usage guy within the Suns offense, of course, and he paces the team with 25.3 points per game.
Phoenix spreads things out and lets it fly from long range, which helps Booker average 6.4 dimes per game. He gets plenty of help with a balanced attack featuring Grayson Allen (16.2 ppg) and Dillon Brooks (20.4 ppg), while Royce O’Neale, Mark Williams, Collin Gillespie, and Jalen Green all average more than 10 points per game.
Gillespie has been a mild revelation for the team, as he sets up the offense well and can pick apart defenses. Together, this band of misfits ranks just 21st in scoring, but are lights out from long range (11th) and takes the 7th most three-pointers in the NBA.
Phoenix is also elite at converting at the charity stripe, and they offer an efficient scoring offense from the perimeter overall. The downside is a lack of stability with their interior scoring and their infrequent trips to the free-throw line.
Atlanta is adjusting to permanent life without Trae Young, who obviously puts a ding in their offense, considering he was averaging 19.3 points and 8.9 assists per game before his exit.
Jalen Johnson has taken over and appears ready for superstardom; however, he’s putting up over 23 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. The offense flows through him (7.9 assists per game), and he is a walking triple-double threat, while ATL gets help from Onyeka Okongwu (16.1 ppg) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.4 ppg).
NAW’s breakout would be the story of this Hawks offense if it weren’t for the emerging Johnson, but the two could form a dynamic duo for years to come. Atlanta has forced their way into the top-10 in scoring, and they do an excellent job in transition (5th) and are the top assist offense in the NBA.
Atlanta is another team that struggles to get free points, but they are very dangerous on the outside and just as deadly inside the paint. Their inside/outside attack makes them a threat against anyone, although they can also struggle with turnovers due to reckless play.
This is an interesting contrast on paper, as the Hawks play at the second-fastest pace in the league and the Suns rank just 16th in pace of play. In addition, Atlanta is dreadful defensively (17th), while Phoenix has the 5th most efficient defense in the league.
Phoenix’s bread and butter is their defense. They own the NBA’s 5th-best scoring defense, rank 4th in transition, 9th in points allowed in the paint, and 5th against the long ball. They are the exact opposite of what a team like the Hawks wants to run into.
- Atlanta’s fastbreak offense vs. Phoenix’s fastbreak defense: The Hawks push the pace, but the Suns are really good at slowing things down and forcing turnovers. Whether the Suns dictate the pace or turn the Hawks into a sloppy offense, they should have the edge here.
- Jalen Johnson vs. Phoenix’s interior defense: This might be the most important part of this matchup for the Hawks, as nothing is going to come easy in this spot. Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu will need to be super efficient against a top-10 interior defense.
- Three-Point Barrage: Both teams thrive on outside shooting, but the Suns easily have the softer matchup. Atlanta may need to overcome a brutal spot to out-shoot the Suns, especially if Jalen Johnson and co. can’t find success down low.
Phoenix really hasn’t been dominant on the road this year, as they’re just 13-12 overall away from home. They’ve been elite against the spread (16-9) on the road, but that could get tricky with this game’s spread being so tight.
Atlanta has weirdly been awful (7-13) on their home floor. The Hawks have been amazing against the spread as the underdog (15-10), however.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Suns vs. Hawks betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Suns | -3.5 (-110) | -154 | Over 233.5 (-110) |
Hawks | +3.5 (-110) | +130 | Under 233.5 (-110) |
The pricing pays respect to the Suns as the better team, but the line isn’t that thick. This plays into Phoenix’s weak road record and the Hawks being a reasonably tough offensive team to stop.
The game total is quite high. This has everything to do with the game being in Atlanta, as the Hawks stand a better chance to live up to their billing as the NBA’s 2nd fastest offense on their home floor.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Phoenix still feels like an easy click across the board. I’d definitely rather just bet their moneyline and not worry about the Hawks hanging within three points, though.
The game total is pretty tricky. The Hawks play very fast, and both teams are very tough to slow down on the perimeter. Phoenix’s slower pace and defensive aptitude make this a tough call, especially when you note the Under is 25-19 for the Suns this year.
Situational Considerations
Phoenix has no key injuries on their injury report for Friday. Jalen Green played on January 20th, and all signs point to him being on hand for this game as well, meaning the Suns are at 100% full strength.
Atlanta can’t say the same. We know veteran big man Kristaps Porzingis won’t play, while sharpshooter Zaccharie Risacher has also been ruled out. Those are pretty significant injuries, as Porzingis takes away scoring and rebounding, and Risacher removes another able-bodied perimeter shooter.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Suns ML (-154) | Phoenix has had issues on the road, but they are the far better team in every way. Atlanta’s brutal home record is just the icing on the cake, plus getting the Suns at -154 in a very winnable game feels like robbery. | 8/10 |
Over 233.5 (-110) | Phoenix could slow things down, but consider this an educated hedge. Not only can the outside shooting and Atlanta’s pace get us there, but this is probably the only way the Hawks stay in the game – with it turning into a track meet. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Jalen Johnson to Get a Double-Double (-195) | The price isn’t to die for, but it still feels like a lock. Johnson is a triple-double threat and averages 20 and 10 on the year. He’s safely hit a double-double in four of his last six games. | 8/10 |
As Suns vs. Hawks odds continue to move with action on both sides, betting value can change fast — follow line movement and secure strong prices at our trusted sportsbooks.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Suns 123, Atlanta Hawks 120
My main Suns vs. Hawks prediction is that Phoenix pulls out a big win on the road. Phoenix is at full strength, they can match Atlanta from long range, and they offer something the Suns don’t – a defense.
The only risk here is that the Suns had to travel and haven’t been very reliable away from home. However, the Hawks are just as much of a liability on their home floor for some reason, and now we get a 100% healthy Suns team that has a higher seeding and a division title to chase.
Phoenix is the way to go across the board, but I also am digging the Over. Atlanta has to find a way to push the pace and hit from outside to stay in this. If they can accomplish that even slightly, I think we get a fast-paced matchup with a lot of scoring.
Lastly, Jalen Johnson is a double-double machine. If the game gets as wild as I think it could, he will have a very clear path to delivering on this prop, while even a triple-double would be in play.
