Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions CBB Prediction & Best Bets (Thursday, January 22nd, 2026)
The Wisconsin Badgers will put their 5-2 Big 10 record on the line on Thursday night, when they head to Pennsylvania to battle the Penn State Nittany Lions. DraftKings has Penn State as a 5.5-point home underdog as they seek their first win in conference play this season.
Wisconsin should naturally be the aggressor here, as the Nittany Lions are just 9-9 overall and 0-7 in the Big 10. The Badgers, meanwhile, are riding a nice four-game winning streak and recently took down the Michigan Wolverines – handing them their lone loss of the year.
This sets up as a bit of a trap game for the Badgers, as a big matchup versus USC awaits them on January 25th. Penn State could take advantage of a potential lack of focus, while willing bettors could also secure some solid betting value.
Is that the best bet for this game, or should we back the favored Badgers? Join me as I analyze the latest odds, highlight the top picks, and wrap things up with my final Wisconsin vs. Penn State prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers (13-5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-9)
- Date & Time: Thursday, January 22th, at 6:30 pm (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Bryce Jordan Center in College Township, PA
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1
Early Season Performance & Trends
Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers have looked pretty sharp this year, as they stormed out of the gates with a high-flying offense. Their schedule was admittedly quite soft, but they still scored 96, 97, 86, and 94 points during a nice 4-0 start.
Wisconsin did come crashing back down to earth in a lopsided 98-70 blowout loss to a very good BYU Cougars team, but they responded by hanging 104 points on Providence. The Badgers got obliterated by Nebraska by 30 points and fell to Villanova, TCU, and Purdue, but of their five losses, three of them are against teams inside the top-13.
On top of that, Wisconsin’s explosive offense helped them knock off the Michigan Wolverines. That still stands as Michigan’s lone loss of the season, and a win against a top-3 team has Wisconsin on everyone’s radar.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions probably won’t be ranked this year, as they’re off to a shaky 9-9 start and are still searching for their first win inside the Big 10 conference.
Penn State is in 18th place in a loaded Big 10, but it hasn’t been all bad. The Nittany Lions had a promising start to the season, as they won their first five games before losing by 12 to a decent Providence squad.
The Nittany Lions bounced back with a three-game winning streak to get to 8-1, but the wheels fell off when they got trounced by Indiana. That started a three-game losing streak, while they’d only win one more game as part of a 1-8 free fall.
Penn State has really struggled defensively, while their offense is far from elite. They gave an elite Michigan team a serious fight in a 74-72 loss a few weeks back, but beyond that have been getting blown out regularly.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
These teams both operate out of the Big 10, so it’s a little surprising to see they’ve only faced each other 26 times. Wisconsin has controlled the series with a 21-5 overall record, going 10-3 on the road against Penn State.
Penn State has had the upper hand lately, as they’ve won two games in a row, including an 86-75 win last March. Wisconsin is 7-3 over the last 10 meetings, however.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Wisconsin used to run a ball control offense that relied on execution, high percentage looks, and getting to the free throw line. The Badgers have adapted with the times, however, as they now run at a fast pace and launch the 11th most three-pointers in all of college basketball.
The Badgers don’t turn that volume into a strong conversion rate, but it still leads to production, as they also rank 15th in three-point makes per game. They don’t get to the line like they used to, but they still get the job done there (77.5%), giving them the nation’s 24th-best conversion rate at the charity stripe.
Nick Boyd paces the team with 19.9 points per game, while they get a solid inside/outside presence in Nolan Winter (14.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg). Their top scorers are not always efficient from long range, but John Blackwell connects on 38.5% of his three-point looks and is second in scoring at 18.6 points per contest.
Wisconsin is a pretty easy team to peg. They are better equipped to run with just about anyone these days, but they now lack the defensive aptitude and substance they used to rely on. Put simply, if their long ball isn’t falling, they’re in trouble. But if it is, they’re tough to beat.
Penn State isn’t as flashy as the Badgers, as they rely heavily on two players to get a good amount of their production. Kayden Mingo (15.2 ppg) and Freddie Dillone V (13.6 ppg) are the two that answer the call the most, but they still don’t produce at an elite level.
The Nittany Lions are fairly balanced beyond their top two scorers, but nobody else averages double figures in scoring and just two regular contributors connect from long range at better than a 34% clip.
Naturally, Penn State has a middling offense. They generate 76.8 points per game, but that ranks 143rd in the country. They also don’t make enough shots on a consistent basis and aren’t serious threats from deep.
On the bright side, Penn State is pretty efficient inside. Forwards like Ivan Juric (56% shooting), Josh Reed (49%), and Tibor Mirtic (53%) contribute to a stable of players who can score at efficient rates.
Still, the Nittany Lions are a slow offense that lacks high-level scoring ability. If they get into shootouts, they’re often going to get left behind.
Wisconsin is not the same team Badgers fans are used to. They push the pace more (87th), and they are not as good defensively, allowing over 75 points per game. This is a team that can win in shootouts, but is a liability on defense.
Penn State isn’t any better on defense (208th), but they try to slow things down with the 287th-ranked pace in men’s college basketball.
- Badgers perimeter offense vs. Nittany Lions perimeter defense: Wisconsin just needs to make their shots. Penn State doesn’t defend the long ball well at all, so the Badgers will certainly have their opportunities to bust this game wide open.
- Penn State interior offense vs. Badgers interior defense: The best path to success for the Nittany Lions is slowing this game down and pecking away at Wisconsin inside. They do have some solid interior scoring, while the Badgers lack shot-blocking or reliable defense in the paint.
- Free Throw Battle: Wisconsin isn’t built on getting to the free-throw line anymore, and this certainly isn’t the spot for them to change their colors. Penn State ranks 13th in free throw attempts allowed per game and 27th in free throw makes. The Badgers better maintain their elite conversion rate in this matchup, as their trips to the line could be few and far between.
The Badgers are 6-1 over their last seven games and come into this game with a 2-1 mark in true road game settings.
Wisconsin has not been elite against the spread (9-9), but they are 8-6 ATS when favored, and they’re 4-3 ATS inside the Big 10.
Penn State is 1-8 over their last nine games and have yet to win a Big 10 game. They are 7-4 at home on the year.
The Nittany Lions have been worse than Wisconsin against the spread, going 7-11 on the season. They are 3-1 ATS as the home underdog, however, and 4-3 ATS inside conference play.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Wisconsin vs. Penn State betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin | -5.5 (-110) | -275 | Over 160.5 (-110) |
Penn State | +5.5 (-110) | +220 | Under 160.5 (-110) |
The odds suggest Wisconsin is very likely to win. A spread this big on the road is pretty alarming, which indicates the Badgers are the much better team and Penn State is not a reliable bet even on their home floor.
The game total plays into Wisconsin’s pace and offensive ability. Neither team plays elite defense, either, so a shootout is very possible.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The pricing is honestly about right across the board. Road games within the Big 10 can be a trap, but Wisconsin is the better team and the spread isn’t egregious. Wisconsin’s ML is the safe play, but for value bettors should target the Over or Wisconsin to cover.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 160.5 (-110) | Wisconsin plays pretty fast and puts up almost 85 points per game. Neither defense is very good, so assuming Penn State doesn’t slow this thing to a screeching halt, we should get a good amount of points. | 7/10 |
Wisconsin ATS -5.5 (-110) | Wisconsin could easily be looking ahead to their next game, but they are, without a doubt, the better team. Playing on the road against a rival can spell doom, but the Badgers will be eager to snap a two-game skid in this series. | 7/10 |
Planning to bet on Wisconsin vs. Penn State? Explore our trusted sports betting sites to track shifting odds, compare spread and total lines, and lock in the best numbers before tipoff.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers 86, Penn State Nittany Lions 79
If you want a Badgers vs. Nittany Lions prediction, the easiest call is Wisconsin to get the win. Their -250 moneyline is something you can still attack, but it’s best reserved as part of a small college basketball parlay.
Instead, I’d first start by hammering the Over, as Wisconsin plays reasonably fast and launches a lot of threes. I can see them getting hot in this spot, while the lack of reliable defense from either side also promotes a fairly high-scoring affair.
Wisconsin should win this game, but betting on the ML isn’t appealing, so we can go the extra mile and take the Badgers to cover their 5.5-point spread. It’s not a small line on the road against a rival, but Wisconsin is clearly the better team and should exert their dominance.
If the Badgers are going anywhere inside the Big 10, they can’t leave doubt in games like this against inferior opponents. Look for them to pull away late.
