Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Prediction – UFC 324 (January 24th, 2026)
UFC 324 is shaping up to be a legit banger. Paddy Pimblett and Sean O’Malley are big names demanding our attention and bets, but there are some overlooked matchups you should be willing to target.
One such showdown has Nikita Krylov coming in as a +118 underdog at FanDuel, as he prepares to take on Modestas Bukauskas. Krylov is interesting simply based off of his unorthodox and unpredictable style, which typically leads to an early finish, whether he wants it to or not.
Will his chaotic approach get him his 29th win via stoppage, or is Bukauskas an easy smash bet at -144? Let’s break down this matchup, analyze the best bets, and get to a Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 324
- When: Saturday, January 24
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas United States
- Schedule:Prelims – 7:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC 324 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas odds over at FanDuel:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Nikita Krylov | +118 |
Modestas Bukauskas | -144 |
Fight Goes the Distance | Yes (+400) | No (-650) |
Method of Victory | Krylov: KO/TKO (+280) | Submission (+550) | Points (+850) Bukauskas: KO/TKO (+145) | Submission (+750) | Points (+750) Draw: +5000 |
What the Odds Tell Us
There is only pricing out for the fighter winner odds, which might tell us that the books (and most everyone else) know where this fight is going. Given Krylov’s fighting style and the way his fights end, a finish of some sort feels quite likely.
This one boils down to Krylov’s finishing ability and his recklessness. That makes him a very light underdog, as the oddsmakers are leaning into Bukauskas and his knockout upside.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Nikita Krylov
The 33-year old Krylov is a very well-rounded fighter with elite versatility and explosiveness. He is a hunter, as he seeks out contact, is very aggressive, and looks to finish fights as early as possible. He can often do it in unpredictable ways, of course, which can leave him open to damage or even getting finished himself.
Krylov’s strategy and skill set have often equated to success in his MMA career, as he has a strong 30-11 overall record with 28 of his victories coming via stoppage. He is not an easy fighter to predict as far as the manner in which those wins can come, as he’s one 12 fights via knockout, but also has an insane 16 submissions to his name.
That approach has led to mixed results so far in the UFC, as Krylov is just 5-6 through 11 fights under the UFC banner. Things haven’t gone his way recently, as he got KO’d by both Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes. Those are two solid fighters, of course, while he was riding a nice three-fight winning streak with big wins over Ryan Spann, Volkan Oezdemir, and Alexander Gustafsson before that.
To his credit, almost all of Krylov’s losses have come against top-shelf opponents, and they are often due to his aggressive nature. His tendency to get tripped up against skilled UFC talent knows no bounds, however, as he’s been rocked (3 KOs) and has tapped out (6 submissions) in his defeats.
Modestas Bukauskas
Bukauskas is younger at age 31 and brings a more one-dimensional approach as a nasty striker who can end fights in a hurry. He brings 11 career knockouts to the table, but has apparently found the magic touch with four consecutive wins and victories in eight of his last nine matches.
He’s 6-1 inside the UFC so far and has churned out better overall production, dominating Paul Craig to close out round one in his most recent bout, and also KO-ing Raffael Cerqueira in the first round two fights ago.
Bukauskas does not have the experience, finish count, or insane resume that his opponent does, but he’s turned into a more polished fighter and at this point may be easier to trust based on his key strength.
It also appears Bukauskas has mostly turned the corner as far as preventing early knockouts. He’s been rocked four times in his career, but Vitor Petrino was the last fighter to send him home early (2023), and the first to do so since a three-fight skid against Khalil Rountree, Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Jimmy Crute.
Overall, Bukauskas is every bit as dangerous as Krylov, but less versatile and more composed.
Tale of the Tape
| Nikita Krylov | Modestas Bukauskas | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 30-11 | 19-6 |
Height | 6’3” | 6’3” |
Reach | 77.5” | 78” |
Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
Style | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Kickboxing |
Krylov has way more experience and is the more versatile fighter. He definitely lives up to the name of his stance, while he gives up a tiny bit of reach in this matchup.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Here’s a closer look at the key Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas matchup angles that could decide this fight:
- Controlled Chaos: Krylov can be a madman and a bit of a blur, even for himself. His best path to a win actually is to curb that desire to let loose, as he is facing a poised and controlled fighter who can exploit defensive lapses.
- Improved Defense: Bukauskas has an edge if he can maintain his composure, but his improved defense also curbs the risk of this fight going to the mat. It’s still a potential issue, but if he can keep the fight on the feet – and in front of him – he has an edge.
- Grappling vs. Striking: Krylov is a terror from anywhere in the Octagon, but he’s a real nightmare for Modestas if he can get ahold of him and lock him up. In addition to avoiding a KO in the midst of the chaos, Bukauskas needs to be mindful of Krylov potentially pulling back and shooting for takedowns.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas bets at UFC 324:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Bukauskas to Win (-144) | Bukauskas is red hot and the more controlled fighter. If he avoids the chaos and keeps the fight off the ground, he is a really good bet to win by volume or via a finish. | 7/10 |
Bukauskas by Knockout +145 | The most likely path to a win for Modestas comes via KO. Krylov’s chin is getting softer by the fight, and Bukauskas is the more dangerous fighter on the feet at this point. | 7/10 |
Fight to Not Go the Distance -650 | One way or another, this one is ending early. Both fighters can be vulnerable to KOs, while Krylov’s aggressiveness and versatility put a KO or submission in play. | 9/10 |
As Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas odds fluctuate, sharp bettors hunt finish value — monitor line movement closely, compare markets, and secure strong numbers at trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
MMA betting can often be tough to predict. Here’s why our Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas picks could miss the mark:
- Versatility: Krylov has 28 career finishes, and they’ve come in a multitude of different ways. It’s very possible his wider range of finishing outcomes overtakes this fight, whether it be a finish or a Decision.
- Boring Fight: Krylov could opt to throw us a curveball and scale back his aggressiveness. If he did that and turned this into a boring fight, he could try to dominate with his wrestling and win by points or submission.
- Just One Punch: Bukauskas is the better fighter to back, but it only takes one good punch to knock someone out. Krylov still has ferocious finishing ability, while Modestas has been KO’d four times in his career.
The Bottom Line: Someone is Getting KO’d
My top Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas prediction is that the fight ends early via stoppage. Krylov has 28 career finishes in 30 wins, while nine of his 11 losses have seen him KO’d or submitted. The guy simply does not back down from a challenge, for better or for worse.
Modestas Bukauskas is not the more skilled fighter, and he doesn’t have Krylov’s experience, but he’s arguably the better pure striker in this matchup. He’s also more composed than his opponent and offers legit KO upside. The two are going to combine for one heck of a fight, and one that surely ends with someone out cold.
I think Bukauskas is the safer option and the odds look good at -144, but I’d be very interested in betting on this fight failing to go the distance, as well as a KO finish, one way or another.
Final Prediction Summary
- Fight Winner – Bukauskas -155 | Confidence: 7/10
- Method of Victory – Knockout +145 | Confidence: 7/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No -650 | Confidence: 9/10
