Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic Prediction & Best Bets (Tuesday, January 20th, 2026)
The second round of the 2026 Australian Open gives us a pretty tight matchup, as Denis Shapovalov comes in as a very mild -132 favorite at DraftKings to beat Marin Cilic.
Cilic easily dispatched Daniel Altmaier in the first round to get here, while Denis Shapovalov had a slightly tougher time against Yunchaokete Bu. Shapovalov will also have less rest to work with, as he played on Monday and Cilic played on Sunday.
This match is tightly priced, as Denis Shapovalov comes in as the 21 seed, and Cilic comes in unranked. Still, Cilic’s talent and past production make him a threat, and he looked solid in his first-round battle.
Either way, bettors get solid value in a showdown that is priced so closely. There could be other avenues to winning bets, too. I have a Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic prediction ready to rock, but let’s walk through this matchup and identify all of the best bets worth targeting.
Match Details
- Matchup: Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic
- Date & Time: Tuesday, January 20, at 6:00 pm ET
- Venue: Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
- Tournament: Australian Open
- Round: Second round (Round of 64)
- Surface: Hard court (specifically GreenSet, a cushioned acrylic)
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic odds over at DraftKings:
- Denis Shapovalov: -132
- Marin Cilic: +104
- Shapovalov Games Won: Over 20.5 (-120) | Under 20.5 (-120)
- Cilic Games Won: Over 20.5 (-105) | Under 20.5 (-130)
What the Odds Tell Us
Shapovalov is the favorite, but barely. His first round match was still a breeze in terms of sets won, but he had a slightly more difficult time than his second round opponent.
Moreover, Shapovalov is not a top seed, and Cilic has a lot of success throughout his career. With both players in solid form, it’s a tough match to predict, and the oddsmakers have it priced as such.
That said, Shapovalov is favored to win and is priced as the better bet to win 21 games in this matchup.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov will be hoping to make it past the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, which is the furthest he’s ever gone (2022) in this grand slam event. He’s also seeking his first-ever grand slam win, but he does have four ATP singles titles to his name and is still in his physical prime at age 26.
The Canadian lefty has made it as high as 10th overall in the world, and he’s had some highlights over the past year. He won the 2025 Dallas Open, for one, and finished strong by taking down the Los Cabos Open in July of last year as well.
Shapovalov is known for his explosive, high-risk style of play, which utilizes leaping backhands, a powerful forehand, and an extremely aggressive serve. The upside is he can overwhelm his opponents and dictate games, but when his timing is off, his approach can lead to unforced errors.
Marin Cilic
Cilic is much older than his opponent, as he comes into this matchup at age 37. That said, he handled his business in the first round and has gone as far as the finals (2018) at the Australian Open.
Experience is a big deal in tournaments like this, and Cilic has Shapovalov doubled up in career wins. He’s also reached the semifinals in every grand slam and hoisted the US Open trophy back in 2014.
Cilic is certainly long in the tooth, but he has some experience against Shapovalov, winning two of five battles. That doesn’t guarantee a win, but it shows he can compete with Shapovalov.
Additionally, Cilic may be aging, but he turned back the clock a bit over the past year. He had an extremely long tournament title drought, but snapped it by claiming the 2025 Girona Challenger tourney. He wouldn’t stop there, as he also fought his way to the Lexus Nottingham Open title and later upset 4-seeded Jack Draper in at Wimbledon.
Cilic’s playing style is similar to Shapovalov’s in that he relies on a lethal serve. He also leans on heavy baseline hitting and a powerful forehand. Much like his opponent, his style can lead to a lot of errors and can cause streaky performances.
Head-to-Head Record
| Denis Shapovalov | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 3 | 2 |
Losses | 2 | 3 |
Total Wins | 233 | 597 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 1 |
Denis Shapovalov is much younger at 26 and has the slight upper hand in the series against Cilic. He has half as many career wins and far less experience, while he also hasn’t performed as well as his opponent in grand slam tournaments.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Want to know what sways the Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic odds? Let’s take a closer look at some key factors for this 2026 Australian Open battle:
- Serve Battle: Both of these guys have fantastic serving, while their opposite-handedness can throw each other off. How they perform on the serve and, alternatively, how well they return each other’s serve will be crucial to their success.
- Rally Point: Shapovalov is the younger, quicker athlete at this point, so his success with rallies all comes down to whether he makes mistakes. He should have the edge here, but if he falls into traps against a crafty veteran, he could lose the upper hand.
- Backhand Battle: This may be the most compelling part of this matchup, as Cilic has a more stable two-handed backhand. If we’re looking for consistency and reliability, he may have the ticket here. That said, Shapovalov’s one-handed backhand is more lethal when it’s on point. When it’s sloppy or rushed, his backhand game can be a negative.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic bets at the 2026 Australian Open:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Match Winner – Marin Cilic +104 | The serving is a wash, so this matchup comes down to experience and consistency. He has the edge in both, and we get a boost in value with his +104 price tag. | 7/10 |
Marin Cilic Games Won – Over 20.5 -105 | I think Cilic’s experience and consistency give him the edge, but I expect a fight from Shapovalov. That should force Cilic to get 21 wins to advance. | 6/10 |
Marin Cilic to Win 2 Sets (-200) | This is a mild hedge, but also an add-on to my original bet. It’s always possible Cilic starts hot, but loses in five sets to the younger tennis player. | 7/10 |
Betting on Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic? Use our trusted sports betting sites to track evolving odds, compare set and game markets, and secure the best numbers ahead of the opening serve.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on tennis matches. Here are my Denis Shapovalov vs. Marin Cilic picks that could fail:
- Age Isn’t Just a Number: Cilic has had a fine year, but he’s still 37 and the inferior athlete. If his age shows up in this one, he could get dominated.
- Upper Hand: Shapovalov has the edge in this series, 3-2. If that’s a sign of things to come, Cilic could be out-gunned before the first serve.
- It’s a Wash: These players have similar games when it comes to serving. If they both serve well, the edge could go to the younger player with a more dynamic backhand.
The Bottom Line: Cilic Offers Consistency, Evens the Lifetime Series
This has been a pretty good series to this point, and it’s Cilic’s most recent clash with Shapovalov that gives me confidence he can win. When they last met at the Boss Open, Cilic took care of business, winning 7-5 and 7-6.
Granted, that was forever ago back in 2021, but he’s also back in a winning groove, as he was quite sharp in 2025 and picked up where he left off with a strong first-round performance.
Cilic isn’t getting any younger, so any remaining big push in grand slam events such as the Australian Open have to come now. He has the edge in experience, consistency, serving, and I trust his two-handed backhand a bit more than Shapovalov, who can be more prone to errors and wild swings.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Marin Cilic +104| Confidence: 7/10
- Cilic Games Won – Over 20.5 (-105) | Confidence 6/10
- Cilic to Win 2 Sets – Yes -200 | Confidence: 7/10
