Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong Prediction & Best Bets – UFC 324 (January 24th, 2026)
With a massive title fight between Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes called off, a showdown between Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong instantly becomes the second most intense fight at UFC 324.
Some would argue that was the case anyway, as Suga is itching to get back on track following consecutive defeats at the hands of Merab Dvalishvili. Perhaps he’s simply done at an elite level, but the 31-year-old seems highly motivated and will enter UFC 324 as a -198 favorite to beat Song Yadong, per DraftKings.
Yadong is no chump, of course. O’Malley’s elite finishing ability puts Yadong on watch as a +164 underdog, but his own striking and toughness have allowed him to go 6-2 over his last eight bouts. At just 28, Yadong is the younger fighter and may still have some untapped upside.
But which side should bettors back? Is Yadong a viable underdog, or should we avoid getting too cute and just roll with O’Malley at a discounted price? I’ll look at the latest odds and key matchup angles to find some winning bets en route to a final Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 324
- When: Saturday, January 24
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas United States
- Schedule: Main Card – 9:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC 324 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Sean O’Malley | -205 |
Song Yadong | +170 |
Fight Goes the Distance | Yes (-200) | No (+145) |
Method of Victory | O’Malley: KO/TKO (+300) | Submission (+2200) | Decision (+110) Yadong: KO/TKO (+600) | Submission (+2200) | Decision (+300) |
Takedowns Landed (O’Malley) | Over 0.5 (+550) | Under 0.5 (-1200) |
Takedowns Landed (Song) | Over 1.5 (+120) | Under 1.5 (-165) |
What the Odds Tell Us
O’Malley enters as the clear betting favorite, but the lines are relatively tight. O’Malley is expected to win, but early odds indicate this fight is a decent bet to go the distance. If the fight ends early, the striking ability on both sides combines to make a knockout the most likely finish.
Both fighters tend to use their fists to finish fights, while O’Malley has just one submission to his name. The price for him to score just one takedown is obscene, but it doesn’t fit either fighter’s typical profile.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Sean O’Malley
O’Malley comes in at a bit of a discount. It seems like the top UFC betting sites and the betting public forgot how dangerous this guy is. Two straight losses to a world-class wrestler like Merab Dvalishvili will do that, I suppose.
In reality, O’Malley is a total dog, and he earned those title shots. They didn’t go the way he wanted them to (at all), but any guy who wants to stand and throw with him is going to be in trouble. O’Malley was in fantastic form before those two understandable losses, as he won six of seven with four knockout wins.
O’Malley is an elite striker that thrives on timing, precision, and movement. He has struggled against grapplers, but has the power, quickness, and defense to handle just about anyone on his feet.
Song Yadong
O’Malley is not a great matchup for Yadong, as both of these guys are strikers at heart. Yadong is undeniably the more well-rounded fighter between the two, but he’s the inferior striker.
While O’Malley has the edge on the feet, Yadong’s power and boxing ability keep him in play for a KO. O’Malley can leave himself open to damage, while he’s been KO’d before.
Yadong has the power and toughness to hang around in this one, while his resume speaks for itself. He just got done beating a tough fighter in Henry Cejudo, while he also has nice wins over Chris Gutierrez, Ricky Simon, Julio Arce, and Marlon Moraes. In addition, he took Petyr Yan the distance in a tough Decision loss.
That said, Yadong doesn’t match up with O’Malley perfectly. His well-rounded game isn’t dominant enough to give him a clear edge, so he’ll need to close the gap effectively and deliver on his power if he wants to get a win via stoppage.
Tale of the Tape
| Sean O’Malley | Song Yadong | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 18-3 | 22-8 |
Height | 5’11” | 5’8” |
Reach | 72” | 67” |
Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
Style | Striker | Striker |
O’Malley has the leg up across the board, which is why he is the betting favorite. He comes in with a more dominant record, he’s taller, and he’s longer.
With both of these guys being strikers, the reach advantage is going to make it tougher for Song to close the gap and deliver enough power to rock Suga.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Here’s a closer look at the key Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong matchup angles that could decide this fight:
- Range Control: O’Malley has a clear edge in reach, and he’s very quick and explosive. If he uses it to his advantage, he can keep Song at bay and win via points, or he can get to him more cleanly and more easily en route to a KO.
- Picking Spots: This could be a volume vs. damage fight. O’Malley’s length and athleticism give him an edge in a fight with more volume, but if Song can counter with selective power shots, he can gain an edge. O’Malley still needs to be careful and pick his spots wisely, as he could be one clean shot from getting knocked out.
- Fight Pace: Song needs to be consistent and constant with pressure to keep the gap tight and lessen the impact of O’Malley’s reach and athleticism. O’Malley, on the other hand, needs to avoid trading blows and be patient. He will be eager to get a KO after two straight defeats, so maintaining a steady pace and not forcing the issue is key for him.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong bets at UFC 324:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
O’Malley to Win (-205) | Just on narrative alone, O’Malley is an explosive fighter who lost two in a row to a juggernaut. He’s going to bounce back, and he’s the more talented fighter in this bout. A KO is worth chasing, but even if it has to come via Decision he’s a great bet to get the win. | 9/10 |
O’Malley by KO (+300) | O’Malley has 13 finishes with 12 coming via knockout. This fight features two strikers who will hunt the KO, and he has the reach and athleticism edge. I think he gets the job done and returns solid value at this +150 price. | 7/10 |
Fight to Not Go the Distance (+145) | O’Malley has the technical skills to land a submission, and both of these guys can knock anyone out. I don’t envision this one lasting past the second round, so someone hitting the canvas or tapping out at +125 feels like a terrific bet. | 7/10 |
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
MMA betting can often be tough to predict. Here’s why our Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong picks could miss the mark:
- No KO: I am projecting a knockout with two dangerous strikers, but it’s always possible that O’Malley is almost too patient and just racks up points. A tough battle that ends with a Decision or a surprising submission isn’t out of the question.
- Upset Special: O’Malley is the better fighter with a bit more on the line, but this is a huge fight for Song to prove he deserves bigger bouts. If O’Malley isn’t careful, he could get upset in this fight, and my bets can go down the drain with him.
- Mental Game: Another aspect that is often underrated in MMA betting is mental fatigue and a decrease in confidence. This is a fight O’Malley should win, but could recent injuries and successive losses to Merab be weighing on him? If his mental game isn’t sharp, O’Malley could struggle to put Song away – or even win at all.
The Bottom Line: O’Malley Gets Back on Track, KOs Song
Song Yadong is a very tough task, but O’Malley has faced better fighters and survived or flat-out wrecked them. I think he looks to send a message here.
Merab was a step up too far for him, as he simply is not an elite grappler or wrestler. However, O’Malley is a devastating KO specialist, and this isn’t a matchup that favors his opponent.
Yadong’s raw power and experience shouldn’t be ignored, but O’Malley has the reach advantage and will be able to pick his spots. Look for him to inflict damage for a couple of rounds before dropping Song with a knockout.
Final Prediction Summary
- Fight Winner – O’Malley -205 | Confidence: 9/10
- Method of Victory – Knockout +300| Confidence: 7/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No +145 | Confidence: 7/10
