Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez Prediction & Best Bets – Tennis (Tuesday, January 13th, 2026)
The biggest men’s sporting event in New Zealand rages on this Tuesday, with the 2026 ASB Classic featuring some of the best male tennis stars in the world. One overlooked matchup has Jenson Brooksby and Sebastian Baez duking it out in the round of 16.
Brooksby enters as a mild -169 betting favorite per DraftKings, while he’ll also be the better bet to end this match in straight sets. He also comes in as a -120 favorite to top 12.5 wins in this showdown.
Brooksby prepares to battle Baez after winning in straight sets over James Watt in the previous round. Baez won a thriller over Emilio Nava to get to this point.
Neither of these tennis players have managed to win the ASB Classic yet, but they’ll be waging war for the right to advance in the tournament. The winner will play the victor of a tilt between Ben Shelton and Francisco Comesansa.
If you’re looking for value and want to know which player to bet on, I’ve got you covered. Let’s peruse the latest odds, highlight the best bets, and wrap things up with an ultimate Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez prediction.
Match Details
- Matchup: Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez
- Date & Time: Tuesday, January 13, at 5:30 pm ET
- Venue: Manuka Doctor Arena (also known as the ASB Tennis Centre) in Parnell, Auckland, New Zealand
- Event: ASB Classic
- Surface: Hard
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez odds over at DraftKings:
- Jenson Brooksby: -169
- Sebastian Baez: +138
- Set Betting
- Brooksby 2:0 (+140) | Baez 2:0 (+310)
- Brooksby 2:1 (+265) | Baez 2:1 (+350)
- Brooksby Games Won: Over 12.5 (-120) | Under 12.5 (-120)
- Baez Games Won: Over 11.5 (-165) | Under 11.5 (+110)
What the Odds Tell Us
The Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez odds are rather tight, with Brooksby expected to pull out the win. He is priced as the most likely player to win in straight sets, while he’s also a -120 favorite to win over 12 games in the match.
Brooksby is the favorite, but the pricing here indicates an extremely even matchup and one that is not a lock to be won in straight sets by either player.
Matchup Preview & Player Profiles
Jenson Brooksby
The 25-year-old Brooksby is ranked 48th in the world and has one singles title to his name. That elusive title is made all the more impressive due to wrist surgery that nearly derailed his career.
Brooksby is in fine form, however, as the openly autistic tennis star claimed the title at the 2025 US Men’s Clay Court Championships. He also reached the 2025 Eastbourne Invitational final and made it to the semifinals at the Japan Open.
Brooksby appears to be rounding into fairly stellar form now that he’s two years removed from surgery. He specializes in baseline rallies and counterplay, giving him a chance to compete with even the best of servers.
Pegged as an unorthodox player, he has a knack for anticipating where the ball is going and can both return difficult shots and also disguise them to give the opposition fits. High endurance and elite stamina add to his strong rally game, although his serve is not a major strength.
Sebastian Baez
Baez is also 25 and comes in with a career-high rank of 18th in the world. He is presently ranked #2 among Argentine male tennis players and has been in very good form.
He cracked the Top-25 early in 2024 and reached the finals of the 2025 Rio Open, successfully defending his title. That gave him consecutive victories in a very prestigious tournament, while he kept his progress going by reaching the 2025 Chile Open finals as well.
Baez hasn’t had high-level success in any grand slams, but he’s performed extremely well on clay courts in particular, and his recent success makes him a name to watch at the ASB Classic.
This is a disciplined player who is a tough matchup for Brooksby due to similar resilience in the open court. His serve is also not a major strength, setting bettors and fans alike for a pretty intense match full of rallies and returns.
Head-to-Head Record
| Jenson Brooksby | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
Wins | 0 | 0 |
Losses | 0 | 0 |
Total Wins | 66 | 108 |
Grand Slams | 0 | 0 |
These two have not yet played each other. They are also both young and in their physical prime, helping to make this a fairly even matchup. They also have similar approaches, while both play right-handed and use two hands on their backhand.
Baez does offer more experience, playing tennis professionally since 2018, while Brooksby started in 2021 and had a layoff due to injury.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
We have two very good tennis players in a tense ASB Classic matchup. Here’s what stands out heading into this matchup:
- Serve’s Up: Neither of these guys have a dominant serve. It’s a glaring weakness in other matchups, but a wash for this showdown. The player who can perform a bit better on their serves could have a huge advantage, however.
- Rally Szn: Both Brooksby and Baez are fantastic at returning action. They both tend to outwork opponents and are masters at shot disguise, angles, anticipation, and timing.
- No Clay: Baez excels on clay courts, but this match takes place on a hard court. He may not be at his best due to the surface.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez bets at the 2026 ASB Classic:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Baez to Win (+138) | This is a very even match with tight pricing. These guys play a similar game and have been in strong form. Baez gets the edge due to price and being a little more battle-tested with a more challenging opening match. | 6/10 |
Set Betting – Baez 2:1 (+350) | I am going all in on Baez. I think we get a barn burner here, but he pulls it out in the third set. If he can do that, bettors get a sweet +350 price for the risk. | 6/10 |
Coco Gauff Over 11.5 Wins(-120) | The only way Gauff misses this is if Swiatek completely dominates her in straight sets. I don’t see that as a very probable outcome, making Gauff’s Over bet very alluring at this price. | 7/10 |
Looking to wager on Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez? Explore our trusted sports betting sites to track shifting odds, find the best lines, and secure valuable bonuses ahead of the opening serve.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on tennis matches. Here are my Brooksby vs. Baez picks that could fail:
- Dominant Form: Brooksby took care of business pretty easily in his first game of this tournament. While Baez is more battle-tested, Brooksby’s form could easily be better and give him the leg up.
- Unfamiliar Foe: These guys have never faced off. Despite the value with Baez, not really knowing how to navigate this matchup perfectly could be problematic.
- Surface Level: Baez is best on clay courts, and he’ll be operating on a hard court. Not being able to play on the platform he’s best at could make this a tough match.
The Bottom Line: Baez Edges Out Similar Opponent in Brooksby
If you’re looking for a Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, my favorite way to target this thing is to roll with the value. Both tennis players do offer solid pricing, but they are evenly matched, they’re both in good form, and they also play similar styles.
With no clear edge in serving or playing surface, we are looking at a hard-fought match filled with rallies, returns, ball placement, timing, and stamina.
This is truly a match that could go either way, but when we are faced with those types of bets, I am either looking for the side that offers a visible edge, or ride with the superior value. That has me liking Baez, but this is the type of match where we can entertain some hedging, depending on the bets we land on.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Sebastian Baez +138 | Confidence: 6/10
- Baez Games Won – Over 11.5 (-165) | Confidence: 7/10
- Set Betting – Baez 2:1 (+350) | Confidence: 6/10
