Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Best Bets – UFC 324 (January 24th, 2026)
The time has finally come to see if Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett can become a UFC champion. Pimblett has seemingly slow-played his ascension up the UFC ladder, but at UFC 324, he will be a -230 favorite to take down Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje is 37 years old now, but has wins over Rafael Fiziev (twice) and Dustin Poirier over his last four bouts, with one of those fights being a KO loss to Max Holloway. He’s getting long in the tooth, but he will take a crack at the Interim Lightweight title belt.
Pimblett has his skeptics, but could have an edge in a classic wrestler vs. striker showdown. He comes in as the clear betting favorite, while the winner would set up a title match down the road with Ilia Topuria, who relinquished this title due to personal reasons.
Wondering how to bet on this UFC 324 match? I’ll walk you through all the odds and key matchup angles, handing out some winning picks and my ultimate Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 324
- When: Saturday, January 24
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas United States
- Schedule: Main Card – 9:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC 324 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett odds over at FanDuel:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Justin Gaethje | +186 |
Paddy Pimblett | -245 |
Fight Goes the Distance | Yes (+240) | No (-330) |
Method of Victory | Gaethje: KO/TKO (+390) | Submission (+2700) | Points (+550) Pimblett: KO/TKO (+460) | Submission (+140) | Points (500) Draw: +5000 |
What the Odds Tell Us
Pimblett enters as a bigger favorite than expected, which plays into his hot streak and rise in the UFC, as well as Gaethje’s age and inconsistency.
The pricing suggests Paddy will win, while the other prop prices indicate this fight is not likely to last all five rounds. A submission win is the most likely method of victory based on the odds, which aligns with an expected Pimblett victory.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje is a monster. Few MMA fighters are scrappier and grittier. He’s scored some very impressive victories and is quite battle-tested. A KO win over Poirier in 2023 is easily one of his better moments, while he also went the distance with the explosive Michael Chandler.
In addition, he was highly explosive in his prime, taking out big names like Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone with punches. Gaethje remains a threat to get the knockout even at this stage of his career, as he has 20 KO wins and just one submission. Just five of his 26 wins have gone the distance, too, making it increasingly likely he’s getting a knockout if he wins.
He is certainly past his physical prime at age 37, though, and his fighting style may not be ideal against someone like Pimblett, who is not as likely to get into the weeds and strike, so to speak.
Gaethje is not known for elite wrestling or submission ability, either. He has just one submission victory to his name, while he’s been finished five times in his career (two via choke out).
Paddy Pimblett
Pimblett is the younger fighter by six years and is running extremely hot as a winner of his last nine fights. He may have started out as an overrated and over-hyped fighter coming out of the admittedly questionable Cage Warriors promotion, but he’s corrected that popular opinion over time.
If you weren’t a believer in The Baddy, perhaps a demolition of Michael Chandler last April would have done the trick. Chandler really never had control of that fight, as Pimblett toyed with the aggressive striker before finishing him off with elbows and punches in round three.
That was far from Pimblett’s first marquee win, of course, as he also choked out Bobby Green and has wins over Tony Ferguson, Jared Gordon, and Jordan Leavitt.
Gaethje is without a doubt Pimblett’s toughest challenge to date, but scraps with Ferguson and Chandler are similar enough that The Baddy will be prepared. Pimblett won’t want to stand and trade with someone like Gaethje, but he has youth, athleticism, and versatility on his side.
Pimblett is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist, as he can inflict damage with his fists, but has 10 submissions to his name. His defense, toughness, and ability to maintain control amidst chaos combine to give him a clear edge stylistically.
Tale of the Tape
| Justin Gaethje | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 26-5 | 23-3 |
Height | 5’11” | 5’10” |
Reach | 71” | 73” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Style | Striker | Jiu-Jitsu |
This matchup sets up poorly for Gaethje, who is a brawler but not as skilled overall as someone like Pimblett. Pimblett also sports a two-inch reach advantage, which could help him keep Gaethje’s striking at bay and allow him to more easily execute takedowns.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
These are two very gifted fighters headlining a massive event. Let’s take a close look at the key angles that could decide this one:
- Strike Early: Gaethje is older, so a full five-round fight is not in his best interest. His best bet is to strike early and often and hope he can hurt and ultimately knock Pimblett out.
- In the Scrap: Pimblett is elite at creating and countering in the midst of chaos. It’s also a zone where Gaethje can dominate. If the fight takes a wild turn, it could be anyone’s game.
- Just a Number: Gaethje’s age is starting to show a bit, as he couldn’t finish Rafael Fiziev in his last bout and got KO’d by Max Holloway the fight before that. Is he too old to trust now at 37?
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett bets at UFC 324:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Method of Victory – Submission (+140) | Pimblett is the one I think wins, and with 10 career submissions – and Gaethje having a grappling weakness – it looks like the most logical bet. We get maximum value with it being plus money, too. | 7/10 |
Paddy Pimblett ML (-245) | Pimblett is younger, quicker, and more versatile, and he has everything to gain with a win here. He will be dialed in, avoiding a brawl and focusing on the most likely path to a win. The price could be better, but it’s solid enough value. | 8/10 |
Fight to Go the Distance – No (-330) | The price isn’t good, so this is probably a bet to toss on a parlay. But we get five rounds for a striker to get a KO or an elite grappler to choke the other guy out. It seems unlikely one of those don’t happen. | 9/10 |
Gaethje vs. Pimblett odds continue to move as markets balance experience against hype — track line changes in real time and stay ahead with trusted UFC sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Gaethje vs. Pimblett picks could fail:
- No Tap Out: The biggest issue if Pimblett isn’t the winner. Not only would the first two bets fail, but a submission would become extremely unlikely. Gaethje has one career submission, so if he wins, it’s going to be via Decision or knockout.
- One Punch: Gaethje is 37, but he still packs a serious punch. There’s also a first time for everything, so he could be the guy to hand Paddy his first KO defeat. This would ruin my first two bets, but would deliver a win in my third pick.
- Boring Match: It’s also always possible that Pimblett tires Gaethje out and wins via Decision, or Gaethje opts to play a safer fight and just wins on strikes and points. If so, we could get a boring fight where someone wins via Decision. If it’s Gaethje, we’re going 0-3.
The Bottom Line: Paddy Pimblett’s Time is Now
The UFC wants Paddy Pimblett to be a thing. Paddy Pimblett wants Paddy Pimblett to be a thing, too. I will be the first to admit that I originally saw him as a Conor McGregor wannabe and borderline gimmick, but he has racked up some impressive wins.
At this point, Pimblett appears to be one of the best fighters inside the UFC, and it’s only a matter of time before he becomes champion. Gaethje is a hard-nosed striker who is not to be messed with, but he’s also getting old and isn’t great when it comes to grappling.
Pimblett has the edge in this matchup when it comes to youth, reach, athleticism, defense, and grappling. I think he takes some shots early, but rounds into form by the second round before choking out Gaethje for the win.
Final Prediction Summary
- Method of Victory – Pimblett by Submission +140| Confidence: 7/10
- Fight Winner – Paddy Pimblett -245 | Confidence: 8/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No -330| Confidence: 9/10
