Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction (Thursday, January 8th, 2026)
The Cleveland Cavaliers face the Minnesota Timberwolves in an inter-conference showdown on Thursday night, where the Cavs will be mild 2.5-point underdogs on the road.
Cleveland has battled with injuries and inconsistency all year, but they’ll take a respectable 21-17 record into Minnesota, where they’ll hope to down Anthony Edwards and the Wolves. Star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell will be back after sitting out the team’s last game due to rest, putting the Cavaliers at close to full strength.
Minnesota should also have all of their key players, as they enter this contest at 24-13 and hope to defend a strong 13-6 record at home.
This is a close one to call, but I’ve got a hard lean. Let’s analyze the latest odds and key matchups to identify the best picks for this game, as well as a final Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers (21-17) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (24-13)
- Date & Time: Thursday, January 8th at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network North, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio and NBA League Pass
Early Season Performance & Trends
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland had the best record in the Eastern Conference last year, but came up remarkably short once they got to the NBA playoffs. They’ve continued that disappointment into this season, as they’re just four games above .500, and if the season ended today, they’d be in the league’s Play-In tourney.
None of that is what the Cavs expected coming into this year, but they still have a chance to heat back up and climb up the standings. They’re far behind the Detroit Pistons in the Central Division, but they’re just four games out of second place in the conference.
The issue for the Cavs has been health and chemistry. If they can get everyone on the floor and on the same page, they still have one of the most talented rosters in the league and can push for a higher seed.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have met expectations this year, doing all they can to keep their heads above water in the hyper-competitive Western Conference. Nobody is touching the Oklahoma City Thunder, but Minnesota is just two games out of second place, posting a strong 24-13 record through their first 37 games.
Anthony Edwards leads a balanced team that is top-10 in scoring at both ends of the floor and is as deep as anyone. Minnesota has the unfortunate task of playing in the Northwest Division, so marching past OKC for the top seed is probably not in the cards.
That said, the Wolves look like a legit contender and just need to maintain their current pace. A late-season push could allow for better positioning and a deep playoff run.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Cavs and Timberwolves have faced off just 69 times in team history. Cleveland won both meetings last year, with both games being explosive, high-scoring affairs. The two teams split the season series the year prior, with one of the games going to overtime.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Cleveland’s offense continues to flow through star guard Donovan Mitchell, who averages over 29 points per game. Mitchell also helps initiate offense (5.4 assists per game), along with point guard Darius Garland.
Evan Mobley (17.8 ppg) and Jarrett Allen (12.8 ppg) round out Cleveland’s top four players, all of whom are impactful producers. If they’re not bringing their A-game, the Cavs can turn to a very deep bench, which features capable offensive pieces like Sam Merrill, Craig Porter Jr., Lonzo Ball, Jaylon Tyson, and De’Andre Hunter.
Cleveland is a perimeter-based offense, as they launch 42.6 three-pointers per game (3rd), connecting on 14.9 per contest (5th). Their efficiency is only average, while they aren’t aggressive or effective enough at getting to and finishing at the free-throw line.
Minnesota will probably always go as far as Anthony Edwards takes them. The offense runs through the Wolves’ star swingman, as he puts up 29.3 points per game and leads the team by seven points.
Julius Randle is a stellar second scoring option at 22.1 points per game, while Minnesota has a deep and balanced rotation. Donte DiVincenzo, Nazy Reid, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert all chip in as needed, averaging at least 11 points per game a piece.
The Wolves have a very assertive offense that relies on interior scoring, efficiency, ball sharing, and free points. Edwards is the driving force behind the league’s 7th most efficient offense, while Minnesota can still burn you from long range (10th) if they so choose.
Minnesota really makes their money at the free-throw line, however. They get to the line 26.7 times per game (6th), and are top-10 in free throw makes. That volume leads to a lower-than-desired conversion rate (26th), which could be holding the offense back to a certain extent.
Minnesota and Cleveland are both healthy teams in terms of pace. Cleveland is faster with a 104.2 Pace Factor per Hollinger team statistics (7th), while Minnesota is a little slower, ranking 13th at 103.2.
Defensively, Minnesota holds a clear edge. They rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 10th in defensive scoring. They also own the league’s 6th-best transition defense and are a top-10 unit against the long ball.
Cleveland isn’t as good, but it still ranks a solid 11th in defensive efficiency. They only have the 18th-ranked scoring defense, but rank 7th at preventing points in the paint and rank 4th against two-point shooting overall.
- Cavaliers perimeter offense vs. Timberwolves perimeter defense: Cleveland relies heavily on the long ball. They require volume to make a big impact, but Minnesota ranks 7th against the three and doesn’t allow high volume from outside.
- Minnesota’s free-throw game vs. Cleveland’s defense: The T’Wolves want to get to the line a lot, and Cleveland tends to oblige. The Cavs put their opponents on the charity stripe 25.2 times per game (23rd).
- Minnesota’s interior scoring vs. Cleveland’s interior defense: This could be a tough spot for Minnesota, especially if they’re not drawing fouls and/or hitting their free throws. The T’Wolves can be aggressive inside, but the matchup isn’t ideal with Cleveland allowing the 7th fewest points inside the paint.
Cleveland is 8-8 on the road and will be in Minnesota for this game. The Cavs also come in with a terrible 12-26 record against the spread. They’ve gone 9-19 ATS outside of their division, and they are 3-3 ATS as the underdog.
The Cavs come into this game in solid form. They beat Indiana 120-116 in their last contest and are 4-1 over their last five games.
Minnesota is a steady 13-6 at home. They’ve also struggled (16-21) against the spread, going 7-9 ATS as the home favorite and 7-7 ATS outside of the Western Conference.
The Timberwolves are in solid form at the moment. They dominated Miami in a 122-94 win in their most recent game and have won three straight, as well as four of their last five.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Cavaliers | +2.5 (-110) | +116 | Over 239.5 (-110) |
Timberwolves | -2.5 (-110) | -136 | Under 239.5 (-110) |
Cleveland enters this one as mild road underdogs. This line pays some respect to a solid Cavs squad that should enter this game at close to full strength.
This is a very high game total. Both teams are known for high-scoring games at times, but due to the defensive aptitude on both sides, it feels high at first glance.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Cleveland does offer compelling value, but Minnesota is the better team, and they play well at home. The gut reaction is to hammer the Wolves’ ML or bet on them to cover a light 2.5-point spread.
The game total is very high. These teams are certainly capable of battling to overtime or just enjoying a wild shootout, but 240 points is asking a lot. The Under instantly stands out as an appealing bet.
Situational Considerations
Both teams should be well rested and fresh, as their last game was two days ago on January 6th.
Cleveland star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell sat out the most recent game due to rest, so he should be active and at 100% for this matchup.
Anthony Edwards has been dealing with an ailment, but suited up in Minnesota’s last game and has had two days to rest.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 239.5 (-110) | The defenses are both top-10, and this should be a hard-fought game. The Over is just 17-20 in Timberwolves games this year, while it’s 17-21 for the Cavs on the year. | 7/10 |
Minnesota ML (-136) | Minnesota is the better team, and they are good (13-6) on their home floor. The matchup favors them across the board, and they should be itching to beat the Cavs after being swept in the season series last year. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Anthony Edwards Over 30+ Points (-133) | The matchup favors Minnesota, and they’re at home. Edwards is averaging nearly 30 ppg on the year and scored 44 points the last time he faced the Cavs. | 7/10 |
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves odds continue to shift as bettors react to spread flips and total movement — track every line change, compare prices, and lock in the best value before tip-off at our trusted sportsbooks.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves 119, Cleveland Cavaliers 116
This is a predicted shootout and tight game, and it still isn’t getting to that lofty 239.5 total. I fully expect a close game and a good amount of points, but we may need OT to get where this price is set.
Both teams are certainly capable of exploding offensively, but we still have top-10 defenses to worry about. Due to that, I think this game stays in check, and the Under delivers.
My actual Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves prediction in terms of a winner is Minnesota. The T’Wolves play their best ball at home; they’re a more cohesive offensive team that isn’t overly reliant on outside shooting, and they offer a stronger defense.
Additionally, Edwards is what makes them go, and the Cavs had zero answer for him the last time they ran into him. Few teams do, as he’s basically averaging tonight’s prop line. I like him to exceed that and align with my ML pick.
