Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction & Top Picks (December 25, 2025)
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will face off on the NBA’s Christmas Day slate, giving us a fun battle between two Western Conference teams inside the top-5.
This doubles as a Northwest Division showdown, as these teams have very similar records and are still vying for second place behind the mighty Oklahoma City Thunder. Catching up with OKC is perhaps a pipedream at this point, but these teams have had a lot of success lately and will still try to lock up the best seed they possibly can.
Denver enters with the better record at 21-8, and they presently sit two slots ahead of Minnesota. The Timberwolves come into this contest at 20-10, but are the hotter team with three straight wins and an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games.
It’s an intense showdown between Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokic, but with Denver likely still without two of their best on-ball defenders, it’s worth wondering if they can gut this one out.
Let’s inspect the latest odds and key matchups to locate the best bets for this game, and I’ll wrap things up with my final Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves (20-10) vs. Denver Nuggets (21-8)
- Date & Time: Thursday, December 25th at 9:30 pm (10:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Ball Arena in Denver, CO
- How to Watch: ABC, and ESPN
Early Season Performance & Trends
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are currently in third place in the Northwest Division despite a shaky 2-3 start to the season. They’ve been in terrific form of late, winning three in a row and eight of their last 10.
Minnesota continues to lean on superstar swingman Anthony Edwards, and he has not disappointed. He’s fresh off of a huge 38-point scoring output that helped down the New York Knicks and inched the T’Wolves closer to overtaking Denver for second place behind OKC in the division.
The Timberwolves offer quality balance with a top-12 offense and the 8th-best scoring defense, and are the healthiest right now that they’ve been all year.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are struggling with their health at the moment, as key defensive pieces Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun continue to miss time. Jamal Murray has stepped up his game with a litany of big performances lately; however, while big man Nikola Jokic continues to put up MVP-worthy numbers.
Denver sits in second place in the Northwest Division and owns the third seed in the Western Conference. Thanks to Oklahoma City tumbling lately, storming the castle for the top spot in the division isn’t quite as impossible as it once seemed.
The Nuggets are in fine form as of late, too. They did lose their most recent game against the Dallas Mavericks in a wild 131-130 thriller, but they’ve been rock solid, going 7-3 over their last 10 games.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
As division rivals, these two teams have met each other quite a bit, playing 151 regular-season games in their history. Denver has the upper hand so far, going 91-60 in such clashes.
The Nuggets have been the aggressor so far to start the 2025-26 NBA season, winning the first two games by more than 10 points. That makes this third meeting a big one for Minnesota, as a loss would hand Denver the season series and a clear edge when it comes to division standing and seeding.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Minnesota has a rock-solid offense, as they score 118.5 points per game, ranking 12th in the NBA. This is a very efficient offense, too, as the Wolves rank 8th in effective FG% and 8th in overall offensive efficiency.
This is largely thanks to Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert getting easy scoring opportunities inside, as well as the elite inside/outside game of superstar guard Anthony Edwards (28.3 ppg).
Randle (22.4 ppg) is having an excellent season and plays off of Edwards brilliantly, while Minnesota is getting terrific support from role players such as Jaden McDaniels (15 ppg) and Donte DiVincenzo (14 ppg) as well.
Minnesota excels in the halfcourt, as they spread the ball out beyond ANT’s usage, hit on decent volume from long range, and get to the free-throw line and convert with regularity. It’s a layered and balanced offense that can hurt defenses from deep or inside, making them a tough matchup for anyone.
Denver currently owns the league’s top scoring offense and runs through Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Joker remains an MVP candidate thanks to a staggering 28-12-10 stat line, and the Nuggets’ offense largely flows through him.
Murray will pick his spots and take over as needed, and he’s elevated his game in recent weeks. His 24.8 points per game make him an excellent Robin to Jokic’s Batman, while he’s also dishing out 6.5 assists per game.
Denver is missing two key perimeter scorers in Godon and Braun, but they’re still getting some offense out of new additions Cam Johnson (11.8 ppg) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (12.3 ppg), but everyone knows where most of the production is coming from.
Despite that being the case, the Nuggets rank third in assists, are top-10 in transition scoring, top-10 in points inside the paint, #1 in effective FG%, #1 in three-point shooting, and 8th in free throws made per game.
This is an aggressive, hot-shooting, and unselfish offense that isn’t at full strength at the moment, but can still dice up any defense so long as Jokic and Murray are on the floor.
The Timberwolves are the faster-paced team in this matchup, as they rank 9th on the year. Denver is much slower (29th), so the contrast of styles will be interesting. So far, that’s leaned Denver’s way, as they’re up 2-0 in the season series.
Defensively, the edge goes to the Timberwolves. They rank 4th in defensive efficiency, 8th in defensive scoring, and do a solid job defending the three-point line. Denver (18th) is not very efficient defensively and ranks just 17th in defensive scoring.
- Rudy Gobert vs. Nikola Jokic: Gobert has the size to impact the boards and potentially limit Jokic’s scoring and playmaking ceiling in the paint. It doesn’t always play out like that, however, because Jokic is virtually unstoppable most nights.
- Denver’s 3-point shooting vs. Minnesota’s perimeter defense: The Nuggets are the best three-point shooting team in the league. They’re without two key offensive weapons at the moment, however, so it will be interesting to see if they can still thrive against a Minny defense that allows the 4th fewest made threes per game.
- Anthony Edwards vs. Denver’s interior defense: The Nuggets do not have a scary defense in the paint, so ANT could very well live in there if he so chooses. Edwards can be very effective when he’s aggressive, and stoppers like Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are not expected to be available on Christmas Day.
The Nuggets are very likely going to be without top two-way players, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun. This should negatively impact their overall defense and spot-up shooting from long range.
Denver may also be without another viable outside shooter, as Cameron Johnson sprained his right knee in the team’s most recent game. It’s unclear if he’ll be active versus Minnesota, but losing him would take away another reliable perimeter threat.
Minnesota could be without two-way player Jaden McDaniels as well. He sat out Tuesday’s win over the Knicks and it’s unclear if he’ll be back for the Christmas Day game.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Timberwolves vs. Nuggets betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Timberwolves | +2.5 (-108) | +120 | Over 239.5 (-110) |
Nuggets | -2.5 (-112) | -142 | Under 239.5 (-110) |
Minnesota is a bigger underdog than expected. They’re on the road and going up against the best offense in the NBA, but the Timberwolves are healthier and sport the superior defense.
The game total is spot on, as Denver puts up 125 points per game. Minnesota also has the 12th-best scoring defense and pushes the pace, giving us a potential shootout in Denver.
From a Bettor’s Lens
This spread is a bit thicker than you’d expect, but it’s worth noting Denver is up 2-0 in the season series, and neither of the first two games were all that close.
The game total isn’t very light, but that has everything to do with Denver’s offensive ceiling and Minnesota’s pace of play. The Over is very much in play.
Situational Considerations
This will be the second game ever for Anthony Edwards on Christmas Day. He thrived in this setting last year, scoring 26 points in a win over the Dallas Mavericks.
Denver is a rock-solid 9-5 at home this year, but they are weirdly better (12-3) on the road. Minnesota comes in with a stout 8-5 road record, while they won both meetings in Denver last year.
The Nuggets have been solid against the spread (17-12) on the year, and are 8-6 ATS at home and 15-11 ATS when favored. Minnesota has not been nearly as good (12-18) against the spread, while they are 5-8 ATS on the road and 3-3 ATS as the underdog.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 239.5 (-110) | Denver puts up 125 points per game all on their own. Add Minnesota’s offense and fast pace, and this game is going to be lit. Brace for all of the points. | 8/10 |
Minnesota Timberwolves ATS +2.5 (-108) | Denver is solid at home, but the T’Wolves play well on the road. They also need to win this game after dropping to 0-2 in the regular season series, so I expect ANT and co. to show up on Christmas Day. | 7/10 |
Denver Nuggets ML (-142) | The urgency will be there for Minnesota, but Denver has had their number this year. I think we get a tight, high-scoring game in the third meeting, but the Nuggets come out on top at home. | 7/10 |
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds can move quickly on Christmas Day — monitor every line shift, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before tip-off at our trusted sportsbooks.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Nuggets 125, Timberwolves 122
My main Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction is that we get a fire fight that leads us to the Over. Denver is a highly efficient offense that has two studs wrecking on a nightly basis, while the Timberwolves are highly capable of increasing the offensive output with their own star power and fast pace.
A lot of points will be scored, so the other big question will be whether Minnesota can keep it close. They have not been able to do that yet this year, but given Denver’s injuries and the stage on Christmas Day, I think Anthony Edwards shines in a fun back-and-forth showdown.
Denver is still the better play on the ML. Minnesota offers more value as the underdog, but Denver’s offense is more cohesive, and betting against The Joker in general isn’t very profitable.
