Texas vs. UConn Basketball Prediction & Top Bets (December 12, 2025)
The Texas Longhorns will hope to shock the world on Friday night, when they battle the 5th ranked UConn Huskies. Texas enters this showdown with a 7-3 record and is not currently ranked inside the Top 25.
UConn, on the other hand, are 13.5-point favorites to get the win in this spot, as they’re 8-1 through nine games and 5-1 at home. Texas has been very good at home, but are just 2-2 on neutral sites and haven’t been tested with a true road game yet.
The Longhorns will be up against it to even keep this one competitive, but there’s no denying that they have the offensive aptitude, rebounding, and interior scoring to give it a go.
Looking for an edge in this game? Let’s break down the latest odds and key matchups before I hand out my top picks and Texas vs. UConn prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: Texas Longhorns (7-3) vs. UConn Huskies (8-1)
- Date & Time: Friday, December 12th, at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: XL Center in Hartford, CT
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports
Early Season Performance & Trends
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns got the 2025-26 college basketball season started off on the wrong foot, dropping their opener (75-60) to a very good Duke team. They bounced back nicely with a four-game winning streak, before narrowly losing to Arizona State in a thrilling 87-86 fire fight.
Texas lost once more to Virginia in a game that was not particularly close and saw the Cavaliers light Texas up from long range.
The good news? Texas has three “good” losses so far, as two of the teams that have beaten them are ranked inside the Top 25, and the other – Arizona State – has still looked quite good through an 8-2 start.
The Longhorns have their flaws, of course. They can dominate inside and put up almost 90 points per game, but their outside shooting and overall defense can be problematic.
UConn Huskies
Everything has been gravy for the Huskies, who are just two years removed from winning back-to-back college basketball championships. They look like a legit contender to go do that again, as they’re off to a nice 8-1 start and enter Friday night’s tilt as the country’s 5th-best team.
UConn had a fairly easy schedule to open up the 2025-26 season, but things got more intense the second they took on BYU. The Cougars gave them all they could handle, but they lit it up in an 86-84 victory.
The Huskies did fall to Arizona in their very next game, but a four-point loss to the current best team in college basketball is nothing to be ashamed of. They also have wins over Florida, Kansas, and Illinois – all of which reside well within the Top 25.
Already extremely battle tested (and successfully so), the Huskies have taken on a bit of a chameleon approach, as they can adapt their game to whatever their opponent does best. That has allowed them to win in a variety of ways, often having the upper hand, whether the game turns into a shootout or is slowed down to be a defensive battle.
UConn has a capable offense that can heat up when needed, but they definitely hang their hat on elite team defense, which ranks 8th in the nation.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
These two teams don’t play in the same conference and have only met on the hardwood six times in school history. The Huskies have dominated the series, going 5-1.
UConn won the most recent game in December of last year, 76-65. This game will be played at UConn’s home area, where they are 5-1 on the year, with their only defeat coming by the hands of top-ranked Arizona.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Longhorns can certainly put the ball in the basket, as they score over 85 points per game (42nd) and operate a fairly efficient offense that can dominate inside and get to the free-throw line with relative ease.
Texas is not a consistent killer from long range, and they don’t rely on volume from deep, but star center Matas Vokietaitis (15.9 ppg) does major damage down low, and also can be a force on the defensive end (1.6 blocks per game).
He’s not all on his own, as guard Dailyn Swain is the second leading scorer for Texas (15.7 ppg), while the team also gets 12.5 points per game from Jordan Pope.
In addition to crushing inside, Texas does a great job of taking care of the basketball. They commit just 10.1 turnovers per game, which is 42nd best in the country.
The Huskies only rank 101st in scoring, but they still put up nearly 80 points per game. They play team-oriented basketball that hunts the best shot and finds open guys, naturally allowing them to dish out 17.9 dimes per game (31st).
UConn also does a fantastic job of taking care of the basketball (8th fewest turnovers) and are an overall efficient offense. The Huskies have the 38th-best overall shooting percentage in the nation and are strong on the interior.
They have a balanced attack, with guard Solomon Ball (15 ppg) leading the charge, but four players in all averaging double figures in scoring.
The Longhorns are not scary defensively. They allow 72.7 points per contest (136th) and are not stingy on the outside at all. We saw that in a big way against Virginia, as this team is allowing a 36% conversion rate from long range on the year.
Texas does have a big shot-blocking presence on the interior and ranks 11th in blocked shots per game. They are also very good on the glass, utilizing their size and positioning well to rank inside the top-40.
UConn is much better defensively as a whole. They have the country’s 8th best scoring defense (61.7 ppg), allow the second fewest assists per game, and close out on three-point shooters with the best of them. Teams aren’t getting easy buckets inside, either, but they do foul a lot and let teams get to the charity stripe too much.
In terms of pace, neither are very fast, as Texas ranks 192nd and UConn (295th) is one of the slowest teams in the country.
- Texas’ inside game vs. UConn’s interior defense: Can the Longhorns remain efficient and productive inside against the 20th-best team against two-point shooting? Due to their lack of outside shooting, they better hope so.
- Texas’ three-point shooting vs. UConn’s perimeter defense: The Longhorns do not shoot the lights out, but UConn defends the inside so well they may have to try. Of course, a stingy outside defense (26% shooting allowed) limits the paths to success for Texas.
- Free Throw Battle: This is the one bright spot for the Longhorns, as Texas is very good at getting to the line and hitting freebies, and UConn tends to oblige. If the Huskies can keep their hands to themselves, however, Texas may be in big trouble.
Texas is 1-1 against the spread as the underdog and 5-4 ATS outside of their conference. The Huskies are just 4-6 against the spread overall and just 4-6 ATS when favored. They’re also 1-5 against the spread at home.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Texas vs. UConn betting odds at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas | +13.5 (-115) | +740 | Over 146.5 (-110) |
UConn | -13.5 (-105) | -1250 | Under 146.5 (-110) |
This is a pretty hefty spread, but it’s not terribly shocking considering the Huskies have one of the best defenses in the nation and will play this one at home.
The game total is a little light for college basketball, but once again, given UConn’s defense and pace of play, it does make sense.
From a Bettor’s Lens
There is no value with the UConn moneyline, but you can always take a stab on the other side with that gaudy -1250 price. The safer bet would be for the Longhorns to beat a pretty thick spread, though.
The game total isn’t so low that you can’t get value with the Under still. When factoring in UConn’s pace, defense, and where the game is played, that works against the Longhorns’ scoring average considerably.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 146.5 (-110) | UConn allows just over 61 points per game, they play slow, and they’re at home. Brace for a low-scoring affair and bet accordingly. | 7/10 |
Texas ATS +13.5 (-115) | UConn is the better team, but their offense isn’t exactly elite and Texas could shock with their interior play and ability to get to the line. They only lost to Duke by 15 so I don’t hate their chances to find a way to keep this one within 13 points. | 6/10 |
Texas vs. UConn odds continue to shift as bettors gauge the Longhorns’ scoring punch against UConn’s elite defense — track every line move and secure top value at the top sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: UConn 75, Texas 65
My main UConn vs. Texas prediction is that we don’t get a particularly close game. I am giving Texas some credit by suggesting they’ll score more than UConn allows on average, but this is a pretty brutal spot for them.
The Longhorns have a really effective interior presence in Matas Vokietaitis, but this is not exactly the usual spot where he’ll dominate. UConn has done a great job inside, which is going to put a huge onus on Texas hitting outside shots or racking up fouls.
The latter is definitely possible, but given how that’s really the only clear path to success for Texas, I don’t see them getting it done. On the flip side, UConn is at home and this is a soft matchup for their offense. Look for the Huskies to roll and inch further up the men’s college basketball Top 25 rankings.
