Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction & Best Bets (December 6th, 2025)
UFC 323 has two killer title fights on the schedule, with Alexandre Pantoja prepared to defend his flyweight belt as a -238 betting favorite to beat Joshua Van. This fight has the potential to upstage the main event, while it could also offer elite betting value to willing bettors.
This is an intriguing matchup, as Van (15-2) has risen up the UFC ranks quickly and will be seen as a viable threat to upset the aging Pantoja. Skill and experience-wise, however, Pantoja projects as a really tough opponent for Van.
Despite Pantoja’s favorable odds and his 20 career finishes, this bout is favored to last at least three rounds. That logic checks out to a degree, as Pantoja has never been finished in 35 fights, and while Van offers explosive upside, he’s scored just two wins by stoppage since entering the UFC back in 2023.
The big questions are whether Van is a realistic threat to get the win as a compelling underdog or if Pantoja can finish him. The value is lacking with Pantoja’s moneyline, so let’s dig into this matchup and see what the best bet for this fight actually is.
Read on for an odds and matchup breakdown, as well as my top picks and Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 323
- When: Saturday, December 6
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas United States
- Schedule: Main Card – 9:00 PM CT (10:00 PM ET)
- How to Watch: Streaming on ESPN+
- See the full UFC 323 card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Alexandre Pantoja | -238 |
Joshua Van | +195 |
Fight Goes the Distance | Yes (+120) | No (-155) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (+300) | Submission (+140) | Decision (+110) | Draw (+5000) |
Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-238) | Under 2.5 (+180) |
What the Odds Tell Us
The Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van odds indicate the champion will probably win, and that it’s not as close as the Joshua Van hype train might suggest.
Pantoja has a lengthy career of elite defense and a tough chin. The fact that he’s never been finished plays into this fight being favored to last at least three rounds.
There is a lot of value in betting on anything beyond a Decision, while we can get intriguing value by betting on a finish within the first two rounds.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Alexandre Pantoja (30-5)
Pantoja, aka The Cannibal, brings elite experience and a very versatile skill-set to the table. With a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, he offers high-level grappling and wrestling. That allows him to control fights anytime they get to the mat, which has often translated into a tap out.
Pantoja always seems to be in full control of his fights. There are times in his career where he swings a bit wild or takes some chances when fighters are on the ground, but he is always looking for the kill and is especially at risk of dropping a rear-naked choke hold.
He did just that in his last fight, as he immobilized a nasty striker in Kai Kara-France, while he did the exact same thing against a very skilled fighter in his previous bout versus Kai Asukara.
Pantoja uses excellent pacing and pressure, while he can hold his own on the feet with solid striking. He’d love to get the fight to the canvas, but he has the ability to stand and trade and can counter most moves thrown his way.
He’s run through a murderer’s row of stellar UFC fighters, with big names like Steve Erceg, Brandon Royval, and Brandon Moreno recently succumbing to his insanely versatile and lethal overall game.
Joshua Van (15-2)
Van’s odds don’t really paint him as a legit upset threat, but he definitely is. He lacks the experience or polish Pantoja provides, but he is a dangerous finisher and is in elite form with five consecutive wins behind him under the UFC banner.
He isn’t taking out scrubs en route to this flyweight title shot, either. Van is coming off a unanimous Decision victory over a very good fighter in Brandon Royval, while he TKO’d Bruno Silva the fight prior.
The downside with Van is that he has shown vulnerability on defense. Charles Johnson rocked him in July of last year, while Devon Jackson pulled off one of Pantoja’s coined moves (rear-naked choke) on him in 2021.
Van is a high-volume fighter who is very aggressive, and the intensity he fights with can be overwhelming for his opponents. However, his power has yet to consistently show up in the UFC, and lasting an entire fight with Pantoja won’t be easy.
Pantoja has the clear edge on the mat; he’s the much better grappler and wrestler, and he is the more versatile fighter with more experience. But Van could catch him with one big punch and render all of the Pantoja love useless.
Tale of the Tape
| Alexandre Pantoja | Joshua Van | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 30-5 | 15-2 |
Height | 5’5” | 5’5” |
Reach | 67.5” | 65” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Style | Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Freestyle |
Pantoja has way more experience and has been the more dominant fighter over time. He also owns a 2.5-inch reach advantage, which could prove rather significant given how these two guys match up.
Van is more of a striker, but he’s versatile enough to end this fight in a number of ways. He is at a severe disadvantage if the fight goes to the floor or is decided on points, however.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Before placing your Pantoja vs. Van bets, consider the following factors for this matchup:
- You Reach, I Teach: I think Pantoja’s length is going to aid him quite a bit here. He has faced better strikers than Van and lived to tell about it, so having a nice reach advantage should help keep Van at bay and also give him an easier path to clear shots.
- Overly Aggressive: These are two fighters who can both be very aggressive and explosive, but Pantoja’s experience and skill-set makes him easier to trust. If he baits Van into being overly aggressive, he is going to take advantage of them and make him tap.
- Just One Punch: Pantoja has never been finished at all, but it only takes one punch and Van does have some power. Pantoja will leave openings, too, so if Van can set it up like he has in the past, it’s not impossible for him to win via KO.
- Age is Just a Number: One other thing that you simply never can project is age and athleticism catching up with a fighter. Pantoja has not looked at all like a guy about to slow down, but he’s 11 years older than his feisty opponent. If his game has slipped even a little bit, that could spell trouble.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Pantoja vs. Van bets at UFC 323:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Fight Goes the Distance (No, -155) | Both of these guys have excellent finishing ability. If Van wins, it’s likely because he surprises an aging Pantoja and KOs him early. If Pantoja wins, it’s because he gets this thing to the ground and abuses Van until he taps out. | 7/10 |
Method of Victory – Submission (+140) | I like Pantoja to control this fight, work it to the ground, and score his 13th submission win. Van is not at Pantoja’s level on the canvas, so if the fight gets there, it’s game over. | 7/10 |
Alexandre Pantoja ML (-238) | The confidence level here is extremely high, but the odds aren’t super appealing. Pantoja is just the more skilled fighter with much more experience. Maybe the fight ends up going the distance, or he gets a KO instead, but he’s not losing this thing. | 9/10 |
Odds lines continue shifting as bettors weigh Pantoja’s experience against Van’s explosive upside—track evolving UFC wagering updates at our top-rated UFC sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on MMA. Here’s why our Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van picks could fail:
- High Variance: This is a very high variance sport. One wrong move can spell disaster for the best of fighters. We could lose all of these bets if Van gets a knockout in round four, too.
- Van’s Time: I could always be wrong about Van’s floor game or his ability to overpower Pantoja on the feet. If he proves to be better than expected in either capacity, we could be looking at a new champion.
- Grind it Out: While there are 29 finishes between these two guys, we’ve also seen a lot of Josh Van fights go the distance. I highly doubt that happens here, but it is far from impossible.
The Bottom Line: Pantoja Successfully Defends His Title for a 5th Time
I think there are even bigger title fights awaiting Pantoja. I also think Van will be a flyweight champion at some point. This is a fight that had to happen, but it will ultimately be so we can see just how good Pantoja is, and also that Van may not be very far away.
That said, Pantoja knows the clock is ticking. At 35, this is surely his only stint as a UFC champion, so he needs to make it count. Luckily for him, he is still in elite physical condition and has the skill-set advantage against Van.
Van is an upset threat, and a KO isn’t impossible. I just think Pantoja can handle him on the feet and has a much clearer path to victory. I think we see a good fight in the first round, but Pantoja establishes control and drops a rear-naked choke on Van to win it in round two.
Final Prediction Summary
- Fight Goes the Distance – NO (-155) | Confidence: 7/10
- Method of Victory – Submission (-140) | Confidence: 7/10
- Fight Winner – Alexandre Pantoja (-238) | Confidence: 9/10
