Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Prediction & Betting Picks (November 10th, 2025)
The Cleveland Cavaliers look for their eighth win of the 2025-26 NBA season on Monday night, when they’ll be big -310 favorites in South Beach against the Miami Heat.
Cleveland is working their way to full strength and are off to a strong 7-3 start, while a big road win on Monday would tie them for first place in the Central Division.
The Cavs will be sizable 7.5-point road favorites, as the Miami Heat are down two key starters. While it’s undeniable Cleveland should have the edge, Miami is still undefeated on their home floor, and the always adaptable Erik Spoelstra will have his crew ready to play.
Wondering if the Cavs can cover or if Miami can stage the upset? I’ll inspect the latest odds and work my way to a Cavaliers vs. Heat prediction, while also pointing you to the game’s best bets.
Game Details
- Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers (7-3) vs. Miami Heat (6-4)
- Date & Time: Monday, November 10, at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio, FanDuel Sports Network Sun, and NBA League Pass
Early Season Performance & Trends
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have been a well-oiled machine, as they’ve managed to top 100+ points in every single game this year. When they lose, they lose big, however, as they lost by at least eight points in each of their three losses.
Cleveland wasn’t at full strength to get the 2025-26 NBA season going, but star point guard Darius Garland is back in the fold. That gives the Cavs extra bite defensively, as well as more playmaking and scoring.
Donovan Mitchell carried the offense until Garland could make his way back, while the Cavs have been electrifying in that regard. Despite their high-scoring ways, they’ve also been fairly tough defensively, while doing a fine job on the glass as well.
The top team in terms of record in the Eastern Conference a year ago, the Cavs look good at 7-3 and stand in as one of the better teams in the league.
Miami Heat
Miami wasn’t about to be confused with a legit championship contender coming into this season, but here they are, just one game behind the Cavs in the win column.
This is without center Bam Adebayo that last couple of games, while Miami has also been forced to navigate their schedule without star shooting guard Tyler Herro the entire season so far. Herro is nearing a return at some point in November, but either way, Miami has done well to keep their heads above water at 6-4.
Miami will still be up against it in this one, of course, as they are down their two best players. That will put added pressure on newcomer Norman Powell and a deep but star-lacking rotation – albeit one that has contributed to the NBA’s second best scoring offense.
Keeping up that production with Bam on the shelf won’t be easy, but Miami does the little things well and a 136-131 win over the Hornets is proof they could give it a go against the Cavs at home.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
Cleveland and Miami have some history, as they’ve faced off 133 times before. Miami has had the upper hand, going 80-53 in those regular-season meetings.
The Cavs won the season series (2-1) last year, while the Heat won three of four games the year prior. The two sides have also faced off in the playoffs one time, with Cleveland sweeping Miami in the first round.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Cleveland has a dynamic and explosive offense. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley give them a nice interior duo that can get putbacks, dunks, and points from the post. They also have the outside and mid-range covered from stellar guard play and an array of solid bench sparks.
The Cavs are off to a terrific start, averaging 120.7 points per game (7th most), while they run at the league’s 4th fastest pace.
Donovan Mitchell is this offense’s lifeblood, as he puts up over 30 points per game and somehow finds the time to dish out five dimes per contest, too. De’Andre Hunter, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and even Sam Merrill all chip in at least 15 points per game, giving the Cavs one of the most balanced and deep scoring arsenals in The Association.
Miami’s offense has impossibly been better. Nobody pushes the pace more (1st), while the Heat are extremely effective in transition (2nd), dominate on the inside (2nd), and share the ball as well as anyone (2nd in assists).
When you think of team basketball, the Heat are one of the first teams you picture at the moment. They’ve been forced to be largely a no-name crew, as they are getting over 23 points per game out of veteran guard Norm Powell, while Jaime Jacquez is enjoying a career year (17 points per game) off the bench.
On top of pushing the pace, scoring on the break, and finishing inside, Miami is also shooting the lights out. The Heat own the league’s fourth-best overall shooting percentage, but they are also 12th in made threes and are hitting from long range at a 38% clip (8th best in the NBA).
Miami is faster in terms of pace than anyone, but the Cavs really aren’t far behind. In terms of style, these teams are actually quite similar. The gap is the Heat won’t have two key players for this showdown.
Cleveland has far more defensive aptitude. Miami has a shot to flex their defensive muscle when Bam Adebayo is on the floor, but without him they see a noted dip.
- Kel’el Ware vs. Cavs Bigs: With no Bam down low, Miami will need to get big minutes from backup center, Kel’el Ware. Ware hasn’t lit the world on fire since Bam suffered his toe injury, and Cleveland’s interior defense (8th) isn’t the spot to demand Ware to suddenly dominate.
- Battle of The Mitchells: Donovan Mitchell can score on anyone, but he will definitely face a tough on-ball defender in Davion Mitchell. It may amount to nothing, but if Davion can slow Donovan even a little, it could give the Heat an edge.
- Cleveland’s Defense vs. Miami’s Long Ball: Miami’s best shot at stealing this win is maintaining their fast place and hot shooting. The Cavs have not been tough on opposing three-point shooters, so Miami getting and hitting their open looks from deep could be huge.
Miami is pretty banged up right now, while the Cavs are finally starting to get healthy. Larry Nance will be listed as questionable, but that would be a low-impact absence if he were to miss this game.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Cavaliers vs. Heat betting odds (via FanDuel):
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Cavaliers | -8 (-108) | -300 | Over 247.5 (-110) |
Heat | +8 (-112) | +245 | Under 247.5 (-110) |
What the Market Suggests
The Cavs are a good team, but being 7.5-point road favorites is pretty wild. It’s a testament to their offensive ceiling and star power, but also a nod to Miami’s battered roster.
The total is indicative of both teams’ offensive prowess and pace. These are top-5 teams in terms of pace, and both teams can rack up buckets in a hurry.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The spread and moneyline are fair. Cleveland has to go on the road (where Miami has yet to lose this year), but with both Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo sidelined, they are the rightful favorites.
The game total is what is a bit interesting. If the game stays close the Over could hit despite this high line, but the spread indicates that may be tough to trust.
Situational Considerations
Miami is a perfect 5-0 at home this year, while two of Cleveland’s three losses have come on the road.
Cleveland is on fire with wins in each of their last four games. Both of these teams have played quite a bit, as this will be their fourth game in six days.
The fatigue element is neutral, while the home edge obviously favors the Heat.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Cavaliers ATS -8 (-108) | Miami can run and shoot with anyone, and they’re perfect at home, but the Cavs are more balanced, can match their style, and they’re much healthier. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Jaime Jacquez Over 14+ Points (-110) | Whether this game gets out of hand or not, Jacquez should get his. Miami is without two key stars, and he is already scoring 17+ ppg on a nightly basis. His role will be enhanced, so this feels like a great bet. | 7/10 |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat odds won’t stay still — track how the lines move and lock in the best number before tip-off at the best sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers 128, Miami Heat 117
The playing styles and offensive aptitude put the Over on the table – I just think it’s asking a lot. We’re also playing with fire if we’re betting on a Miami upset, and even the Heat against the spread feels like a gamble given the bodies they’re without.
The reality is the Cavs have all of their main guys, so the matchup on paper greatly favors them. It would be extremely surprising if Miami just came in and executed at an elite level as if not having Herro or Adebayo didn’t even matter.
In all fairness, Miami did do that last time out against the Blazers, but replicating that in consecutive games is a tall order.
Ultimately, the Cavs are a great bet to win, and I think they can pull away late and cover.
