BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction & Betting Picks (November 8th, 2025)
The BYU Cougars will be in unfamiliar territory in week 11, as they travel to Texas as massive 10.5-point underdogs to face the Texas Tech Raiders.
You couldn’t ask for a bigger game this week, as BYU will look to prove themselves against a worthy foe. These are the top two teams in the ultra competitive Big 12 conference, while sole possession of first place is on the line this weekend.
The oddsmakers think Texas Tech (-410) is the easy call to get the job, while the 51.5 game total suggests a shootout could be in the cards.
Not sure how to bet? I’ve got your back, as I’ll inspect the latest odds, go over the key matchups, and hand a BYU vs. Tech Tech prediction, along with my top picks.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: BYU Cougars (8-0) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 8th, with kickoff at 11:00 pm CT (12:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX
- How to Watch: ABC
Betting Odds
Check out the most current BYU vs. Texas Tech odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
BYU | +10.5 (-110) | +320 | O 51.5 (-115) |
Texas Tech | -10.5 (-110) | -410 | U 51.5 (-105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This matchup isn’t a tense rivalry, as the Cougars have only been in the Big 12 since 2023. As expected, there have not been many meetings between these two sides, with just two total games being played ever.
The most recent and only relevant clash came two years ago, where BYU prevailed 27-14.
Even that isn’t something we should hang our hat on too much when dissecting this game, so for the most part, we can ignore any rivalry impact.
Of course, it’s worth noting that BYU won on the road in that game. Although, Texas Tech has been nasty (5-0) at home in 2025.
Why This Game Matters
This game is about as big as it gets. Short of it being the actual Big 12 title game, it’s for first place in the conference right now. Who knows if it will hold given the state of the Big 12 (five total teams have 7+ wins), but it’s still extremely important.
Texas Tech needs the win more, to be fair. They probably wouldn’t mind keeping their home record pristine (nor exacting revenge for that 2023 loss), but a loss may signal the end of their bid for the Big 12 crown.
Both teams have legit conference championship aspirations, while deep runs in the College Football Playoff can’t be ruled out. What happens here doesn’t necessarily derail either of their seasons, but it absolutely could have a significant impact as far as their ultimate ceilings.
Team Profiles
BYU Cougars
The Cougars are probably the best 10.5-point underdog we’ll see all year. Some will call them a fraudulent undefeated team, but all I see is a winner. BYU got the season started off right with a 69-0 demolition over Portland State, and they never let up.
The offense has been methodical and on point all season, never dipping below 24 points in any game. They’ve survived all kinds of tests, whether it be upsetting as the underdog or taking care of business as big favorites.
BYU is undefeated in a brutal Big 12 conference, too, as they’re coming off a terrific 41-27 win over Iowa State.
This team can hurt you in a number of ways, as running back LJ Martin (789 yards) paces the nation’s 35th best ground game. Through the air, quarterback Bear Bachmeier is more than just a guy with an awesome name; he’s executing at a high level (11 TDs) and keeping the Cougars balanced.
That’s led to the country’s 35th best scoring offense, and one that is particularly good at closing out drives (27th in RZ %) and protecting the football (7th fewest turnovers).
BYU is even better defensively. That balanced attack helps them out, to be sure, but the Cougars take care of business, allowing just 19 points per game (19th), and doing a passable job against both the rush and the pass.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The odds suggest Texas Tech is even better, which is honestly saying a lot. Where BYU is more balanced and methodical, the Red Raiders are admittedly more explosive, as they put up over 40 points per game (3rd).
Texas Tech has easily one of the nastiest offenses in all of college football, as they can light you up down the field (17th in passing yards per game) with Behren Morton slicing defenses up to the tune of 1,728 yards, 15 TDs, and a blistering 68.7 completion rate.
The running game isn’t half bad, either, as the Red Raiders lean on Cameron Dickey (760 rushing yards, 10 scores) to generate the country’s 37th best ground game.
As gifted as Texas Tech is on offense, they are impossibly just as good on the other side of the ball. The Red Raiders can flip fields better than anyone (2nd in takeaways), while they are incredibly stingy (5th in scoring) and stifle the run better than anyone.
All of that sounds like bad news for BYU – and it probably is, to an extent – but let’s not forget that Texas Tech did stumble a few weeks ago. Neither their offense or defense were up to par in a 26-22 loss to Arizona State.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- BYU’s rush offense vs. Texas Tech’s run defense: This is probably the most important stylistic matchup, as BYU likes to run (57% rush rate) and they’re going up against the best run defense in all of football.
- Texas Tech’s passing game vs. BYU’s pass defense: The Red Raiders are more balanced than BYU, and they have a more explosive passing attack. How it fares against the Cougars opportunistic secondary could tell us a lot about how this game goes.
- Turnover Battle: Speaking of opportunistic, one of the biggest keys in this game is the turnover battle. BYU does not cough up turnovers, but Texas Tech is one of the best defenses in football at forcing them. Something has to break.
Betting Insights & Trends
Both of these teams have been very good against the spread. BYU is 6-2 overall ATS on the year, 2-0 ATS as the underdog, and 3-2 against the spread in Big 12 games. They are also 3-1 against the spread as the road team.
The Red Raiders have been even better, coming in with a stellar 8-1 ATS mark so far in 2025. Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS at home, too, while they are 5-1 against the spread in conference games.
The total is admittedly tough to gauge when you have two teams that can be so good on offense, yet so stingy defensively. Playing into that, the Over is just 4-4 in BYU games this year, while it is just 4-5 for Texas Tech.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out the top picks for this game:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
BYU ATS +10.5 (-110) | I don’t care how much better anyone thinks Texas Tech is than BYU; this spread is egregious. BYU is 2-0 as an underdog on the year and this is just insanely disrespectful. I think they are even in play to win, but +10.5 is just silly. | 9/10 |
Over 51.5 (-110) | This is a tough one given both team’s defensive aptitude and what is on the line here. However, Texas Tech can do most of the damage all on their own. I think BYU gives it a go, so 52 total points probably isn’t asking the world. | 6/10 |
The only bet in this game I feel really strongly about is BYU beating the spread. Texas Tech is the better team by the numbers and they are very good at home, but they’re not unbeatable.
At least so far, BYU has been. I think they have their own flaws, but they’re quite balanced and don’t have enough glaring weaknesses to buy them falling this short.
The Over also looks good on paper given the scoring ability of both teams. Texas Tech averages over 40 points per game and they could seriously get us there all on their own.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
There are no guarantees in betting. Here’s why these bets could fail:
- Home Field Advantage: BYU is a 10.5-point dog for a reason and Texas Tech has been unstoppable at home. With the Red Raiders needing this win a little more, it is entirely possible they come out and smoke the Cougars.
- Elite Defenses: I like the Over, but the defenses are just as good as the offenses. Texas Tech holds opponents to 14 points per game and BYU isn’t that far off. I think a shootout is in the cards, but we could always see a defensive battle given the stakes.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders 34, BYU Cougars 27
Texas Tech is perfect at home and they pass the eye test when you watch the tape and measure these teams against each other by the numbers. Their ability to flip the field in the turnover game is huge and they have the explosive offense and stingy defense to allow them to dominate even someone as good as BYU.
That has me liking Texas Tech to get the win, but we are not targeting them at -410 and I think the 10.5-point spread is a bit rich. BYU is better than that, as they’ll obviously want to stay perfect. They also still have a good defense and a more than capable offense.
A shootout is entirely possible given what is on the line, while the total is actually fairly modest when you look at what the Red Raiders can do offensively. Ultimately, I like Texas Tech to win, BYU to beat the spread, and this game to hit the Over.
