Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Prediction (UFC Vegas 111, November 8th, 2025)
MMA fans get an electrifying main event this Saturday, where Gabriel Bonfim (18-1) is favored to take down Randy Brown (20-6). The two have contrasting fighting styles, which could set up an epic battle, or lead to a quick finish.
Bonfim’s floor game is superior to Brown’s, but Brown’s power and striking could give him the upper hand, just as well.
Want some help picking a side in the UFC Vegas 111 main event? I’ll break down the latest odds, dissect the matchup, and offer my Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction, along with my preferred bets.
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Here’s a look at the latest Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown odds over at FanDuel:
- Gabriel Bonfim: -184
- Randy Brown: +148
- Fight Goes the Distance: Yes (+210) | No (-290)
- Method of Victory: KO (+170) | Submission (+150) | Decision (+200)
- Total Rounds: Over 2.5 (-128) | Under 2.5 (+102)
What the Odds Tell Us
The moneyline is tight and the pricing favors this thing to end early. Both of these guys are elite finishers, and the contrast in fighting styles also supports this not going the distance.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction won’t be easy to nail, but this fight going Under 2.5 rounds at plus money looks very appealing.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Gabriel Bonfim (18-1)
I think Bonfim is the guy I’d back at first glance, as he is a submission guru (13 career submissions) and an elite wrestler, but he also has some boxing background.
That could allow Bonfim to match wits with Randy Brown when the fight is on the feet, but his wrestling and floor game give him a massive edge if the fight goes to the floor.
Bonfirm has experience against skilled strikers, as he just grinded out a Decision win over Stephen Thompson in July, and he submitted Khaos Williams in February. He’s also in fantastic form in general, having won each of his last three bouts.
Bonfim does a good jump switching up his approach and can peck away at his opponent with jabs and kicks. His bread and butter is scoring takedowns (4.03 averaged per fight) and finishing things on the mat.
In terms of weakness, we did see him get knocked out against a violent fighter in Nicolas Dalby. That alone isn’t to scare anyone off of Bonfim, but just a friendly reminder that he is vulnerable to power and if he’s not careful, can be taken advantage of with ground and pound on the canvas.
Randy Brown (20-6)
Randy Brown is known for his finishing ability, but he isn’t just a knockout artist (8 KOs), as he also has the ability to force a tap out (5 submissions). In addition, he has more experience than Bonfim and also happens to hold a massive 5.5-inch reach advantage.
Brown is not very active with takedowns on average, but he is liable to possibly counter Bonfim and surprise on the mat. However, Bonfim is definitely the much more dangerous wrestler and if the fight does get to the mat, Brown probably isn’t winning.
Instead, Brown should look to stick to his strengths, and that’s leaning on his length, power, and pacing. If he can stay on his feet, he has the striking advantage, and a knockout is absolutely in play.
Of course, Brown is no lock to get a finish. He has racked up 13 of them, but he’s allowed a lot of his opponents to hang around, while between these two fighters, he’s proven to be much more vulnerable to early losses.
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Record | Height | Reach | Stance | Style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gabriel Bonfim | 18-1 | 6’1″ | 72.5″ | Orthodox | Mixed Martial Artist |
Randy Brown | 20-6 | 6’3″ | 78″ | Orthodox | Striker |
This is your classic striker vs. grappler bout. It might not be quite that simple since Bonfim can mix in solid striking and has been the more dominant fighter, but that’s the way I am viewing it.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
This should be a very good fight so long as these guys aren’t afraid to make a move. Brown’s length advantage should allow him to take shots right away, though, and how Bonfim responds – and whether he can score a takedown – will decide how this fight plays out.
- Reach Advantage: The biggest strength for Brown in this fight is his massive height and reach edge. If he can use it to land easy strikes and keep Bonfim from scoring takedowns, he has a clear path to victory.
- Wrestling Edge: Closing the gap on that reach won’t be easy, but it’s not something Bonfim hasn’t done before. If these guys hit the ground, he has a clear edge.
- Inside the Distance: Due to both fighter’s having top shelf finishing ability and there being a clear contrast in styles, someone is getting finished. Bettors should be looking at KO and submission props with confidence.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
This fight is fairly straight forward, but the key is to apply the matchup to actual odds and take home some value. Here are the top picks for this bout at UFC Vegas 111:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Inside the Distance (-290) | The odds favor this thing ending before five rounds are up, and so does the contrast in styles. Both fighters know how to finish fights, so you don’t even need to pick a side to get an easy win. | 9/10 |
Bonfim by Submission (+180) | This fight won’t go the distance and if I’m right about that, I think Bonfim via submission is the most likely outcome. He has a staggering 13 submissions to his name and has the matchup advantage by quite a bit if he can get the fight to the ground. | 8/10 |
Under 2.5 Rounds (+102) | Bonfim’s gas tank isn’t praised as the best, so if he’s going to win like I think he can, he will have to do it early. The nice thing is Brown can obviously shock with the upset and we can still cash this plus money bet. | 8/10 |
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong even with sure things. Here’s why our favorite bets could fail:
- You Reach, I Teach: The saying usually applies to basketball, but reach advantages are no joke in MMA. It’s entirely possible Brown capitalizes on that edge and either scores the KO or at least keeps Bonfim’s takedown attempts at bay.
- Upset Special: MMA is one of the highest variance sports there is, as upsets happen all the time. Even the biggest favorites can lose, and Bonfim isn’t even an alarming favorite.
- Decision Time: This fight also has a slim chance to go the distance. Bonfim has excellent defense and wrestling, but Brown has proven he can grind fights out. If the reach factor ends up being a big issue, this fight could simply be a snoozer that lasts five rounds.
The Bottom Line: Gabriel Bonfim’s Time to Shine
Ultimately, my Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction has the man known as Marrentinha coming out on top. He’s the younger fighter in his physical prime, he’s in stellar form, and he has a ton to fight for.
In addition, Bonfim has been the far more dominant fighter and he has a more lethal skill-set. He can even stand and trade for a bit, leaving Brown’s reach advantage as the only real obstacle to a win.
Brown could always shock us with a knockout win or grind out a boring fight, but the more likely scenario has Bonfim taking him to the mat and choking him out.
Final Prediction Summary
| Bet | Pick | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
Inside the Distance | Yes | -290 | 8/10 |
Method of Victory | Submission | +180 | 8/10 |
Total Rounds | Under 2.5 | +102 | 8/10 |
Ready to place your wagers on this matchup? Check out our list of the top UFC betting apps to find the best odds and welcome bonuses.
