San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers Predictions & Betting Picks (November 5, 2025)
NBA fans get a real treat on a loaded Wednesday schedule, as Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers welcome Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs to town.
The lights will be pretty bright in L.A. for this one, as the star power with both Wemby and Luka on the same floor is tough to ignore. Doncic and his crew will be mild 3-point favorites on their home floor, while their -148 moneyline feels like a steal.
Both teams come in with strong records, as the Spurs (5-1) will hope to take down the Lake Show (6-2) in order to hold onto second place in the Western Conference. This game has unlimited offensive potential, too, as evidenced by the strong 230.5 total.
So, who should you back for this tense Western Conference clash? Let’s check out the latest odds and go over some key matchups en route to my Spurs vs. Lakers prediction and top bets.
Game Details
- Matchup: San Antonio Spurs (5-1) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (6-2)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 5, at 9:10 p.m. ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
- How to Watch: ESPN, FanDuel Sports Network Southwest, Spectrum Sports Net + and Spectrum Sports Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs have ascended to legit playoff contender status, as they’ve raced out to an impressive 5-1 start despite not having top point guard De’Aaron Fox in the lineup.
Wemby has taken his game to a new level, dominating to the tune of 26 points and 13 rebounds per game. His two-way presence is felt nightly, as the Spurs are able to push the pace and be competitive offensively, and still find time to own the NBA’s stiffest scoring defense.
Wembanyama is naturally the main selling point for a Spurs team already having some thinking about a title run, but the team’s pace is leading to easy buckets (1st in fastbreak scoring), and Wemby is impacting the team’s rebounding (6th) and interior defense (2nd) greatly.
San Antonio has some solid pieces around their superstar, but it’s clear they’ll probably only go as far as he’ll take them. As it turns out, though, that could be pretty far.
Los Angeles Lakers
The story isn’t dissimilar for the Lakers, who need Luka Doncic to ball out for a chance to win games. Fortunately, he does do that virtually every time he hits the hardwood, as he’s putting up a mind-boggling 41.25 points per game.
Doncic’s game count has been limited due to injuries, but he’s put the team on his back with LeBron James sitting out due to sciatica. Of course, it hasn’t only been Doncic, as Austin Reaves has morphed into a superstar (31.14 points per game!) at the same time.
L.A. is admittedly a two-man wrecking crew, but they don’t need much more than that with this dynamic duo guiding them to the 10th-best offense in the league. The Lakers could share the ball more and play better defense, but it’s hard to knock the results to this point.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Spurs and Lakers have a very rich history, having met 192 total times during the regular season. The series have been incredibly competitive and nearly dead even, with the Lakers presently holding a mild 98-94 advantage.
Los Angeles has been the aggressor for some time now, as they went 3-1 in the regular season series last year and have won nine of the last 11 meetings.
In the last five games played in L.A., the Lakers are 4-1.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Spurs have largely been a two-man offense so far, with Wemby taking on the most usage and turning that into 26 points per game. He is quite effective no matter where he opts to attack defenses, but he’s only connecting on 28% of his threes, so the Lakers may hope to push him outside more than usual.
Stephon Castle is San Antonio’s second leading scorer at 20 points per game and also the team leader in assists. He’s the safest bet to set the offense up most of the time, but this team as a whole is succeeding more in isolation, as they rank 24th in assists per game.
The Spurs are great at running and attacking; however, as they rank 1st in fastbreak points per game, and also dominate (9th) inside. They do struggle at the free throw line (28th), but they have several other ancillary scorers – Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, etc – that aid an efficient offense that works well inside the perimeter.
Los Angeles naturally leans heavily on Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves at the moment. Reaves takes a backseat to Doncic when both are on the floor, and when Luka is sidelined, it’s The Austin Reaves Show.
We haven’t seen that much of them together, but so far, things are clicking. The Lakers are getting inside production out of those two stars, but Rui Hachimura and DeAndre Ayton (16+ points per game) have been erratic sources of offensive support.
They are both capable and on the year are chipping in, but ideally they do so with more consistency. Everything is working overall, though, as the Lake Show ranks 10th in scoring, works well inside the paint (3rd), and operates the eighth most efficient offense in The Association.
Doncic’s aggressive nature and ability to penetrate the defense spearhead L.A.’s dominance inside, while Ayton has also played a key role. Despite their elite iso ball, the Lakers share the ball pretty well (13th in assists per game) and regularly get to the line (7th in free throw makes).
The Spurs run at the 11th fastest pace in the league, while the Lakers tend to play on the slower side (22nd). L.A. has a passable defense, but it pales in comparison to San Antonio’s, which ranks first in scoring and 2nd in overall efficiency.
San Antonio has the ability to avoid losing their defensive bite despite pushing the pace and putting up points, which puts the Lakers at a disadvantage, even at home.
- Who guards Luka? Doncic is pretty unstoppable due to his outside shooting and ability to get easy buckets inside, while the Spurs are without two of their best on-ball defenders in Fox and Sochan. Do they have anyone that can slow Luka down?
- Ayton vs. Wemby: DeAndre Ayton has caught a lot of heat over the years, but he’s played pretty well for the Lakers. He will be the team’s last line of defense against Wemby when he goes inside, though. I definitely give Wemby the edge, but can Ayton make him work for his points?
- Someone other than Luka+Reaves: The Spurs play great team defense, and Wemby can swat everything away inside. If San Antonio tracks Luka well and contains Reaves, the Lakers may need a third scorer to step up in a big way. Ayton or Rui are the most logical bets, but it could take an unsung hero like Marcus Smart or Jake LaRavia for L.A. to change the tide in this matchup.
The Lakers have weirdly endured both of their losses at home this year. Both came against teams that presently rank inside the top-11 in defensive efficiency.
The sample size is small, but Luka Doncic has yet to lose to Wemby. He’s a perfect 4-0 against his fellow Western Conference superstar.
Los Angeles has been fantastic against the spread. They are 6-2 ATS overall on the year and 2-0 ATS as the favorite. They are just 2-2 against the spread at home, however.
San Antonio is just 3-1-2 against the spread as a whole and 1-0 ATS as the underdog.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Spurs vs. Lakers betting odds (via FanDuel):
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | +3 (-112) | +122 | Over 228.5 (-110) |
Lakers | -3 (-108) | -144 | Under 228.5 (-110) |
What the Market Suggests
The market indicates that there is not a huge gap between the Spurs and the Lakers right now. L.A. is getting respect due to their solid start and the fact that this game is at home, but San Antonio being just 3-point road dogs means they have a decent chance to stage the upset. Both teams put up plenty of points, with their 230.5 total suggesting this will be a bit of a shootout.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Betting against Luke Doncic never feels fun, but the Spurs do feel like the more compelling value at first glance. They are on the road, but they are much healthier than the Lakers right now, and bettors can get them at plus money.
This game’s total also stands out. San Antonio’s defense can be solid, but they don’t really have anyone that can tame Luka. Given both offenses’ potential, the Over is tough to deny.
Situational Considerations
San Antonio will be very rested for this one, as their last game was three days ago on November 2nd. L.A. played on November 3rd, but sat their top two offensive weapons.
Health-wise, the Spurs are in better shape. LeBron James remains out for the Lakers, while Los Angeles could be without up to five other rotational bodies. De’Aaron Fox and Jeremy Sochan remain sidelined for the Spurs, but they still enter this matchup with better overall depth.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 228.5 (-110) | The Lakers are top 10 in scoring, and the Spurs are 11th in pace. I don’t see this being a boring, slow-paced game. I see a lot of points from both sides. Given the spread, pace, and star power involved, we should be getting a high-scoring affair. | 7/10 |
Spurs +122 | San Antonio is on the road, but they are a little more rested than the Lakers; they are healthier overall, and they have a stingier defense. The value looks good on both sides, but the Spurs feel like a smash at plus money. | 7/10 |
Prop – Luka Doncic Over 35+ Points (+114) | San Antonio’s defense is quite good, but they still give up over 108 points per game, and completely silencing Luka – who has scored 40+ in three of four games on the year – seems unlikely. | 7/10 |
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers lines can shift fast — monitor real-time odds and compare the best spreads now at our best sports betting sites before tip-off.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Spurs 117, Lakers 114
The Spurs have the #1 scoring defense in all of basketball, so there’s no doubt that they have the ability to put the clamps down. There is enough wiggle room to allow for a living legend like Luka Doncic to go off, however, so I do think this game should stay close and be relatively high-scoring.
If that’s going to be true, Doncic will need to be locked in. Without LeBron James to steal usage, I see no reason to believe that won’t be the case. It will be enough to get Luka 35+ points and help the Over hit, but the more balanced Spurs should steal a big road win in the process.
