Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 1 Prediction & Top Bets (October 24, 2025)
It’s an opener, but what if the underdog comes out swinging and takes the edge? Game 1 of the 2025 World Series kicks off Friday, October 24, at 8:00 p.m. ET at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. It’s a matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays, and the current odds (via ESPN BET) are as follows:
- Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
- Blue Jays +1.5 (-135)
- Dodgers ML -150 | Blue Jays ML +125
- Total: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
We’ve had some significant line movements for this game, which is worth considering before you make your bet. This post will dig into this line movement, but most importantly, I’ll evaluate the team storylines, the betting trends, and the matchups. Stay to the end, and you’ll know which bets I consider to be the best, and also my final score prediction.
Game Info
- Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (94-68)
- Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:00 pm ET
- Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: FOX
From the lines, it’s obvious that the Dodgers need to win by 2 or more for the -1.5 run line to hit. The moneyline favors the Dodgers with the implied win probability of 60.00%, while the Blue Jays are the underdogs. As for the total, we have a combined runs expectation of 7.5. Over 7.5 means at least 8 runs, while under 7.5 means 7 runs or fewer.
The Dodgers opened with a -185 moneyline but are now at -150 as of this writing. While they remain the favorites, the market’s confidence has dropped a bit. The Blue Jays have also had their run line move from +1.5 (-135) to +1.5 (-145). These can still change. As such, I recommend you monitor the lines shortly before the kickoff.
Team Storylines & Momentum
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are the defending champs and are attempting something we haven’t seen in the MLB since 2000, which is a back-to-back. I must admit that they do have the roster to pull it off. Blake Snell comes in with a 0.86 ERA in 21 postseason innings, and the roster features veterans who know what winning looks like.
Despite their strengths and being the favorites, the team’s bullpen has been flagged as a weaker link compared to the starters. The big leads are safe, but if things get tight, they could become vulnerable.
For the Dodgers, it’s an opportunity to become a modern-day dynasty. And given the fact that they have more rest than their opponents (coming in after a sweep in the NLCS), they might swing the win their way.
Toronto Blue Jays
It’s a memorable moment for the Blue Jays as they return to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1993, which was also their last title era. They have a hot offensive lineup that has lit up pitching in the postseason. Nevertheless, the staff still has some vulnerabilities when it comes to pitching, especially in longer outings and in the bullpen.
The Blue Jays have the home-field advantage for Game 1, as the game will be played on the home turf in Toronto. With that, it is worth noting that the crowd, energy, and momentum could swing things.
Getting here was a tough one for the Blue Jays, especially with the momentum of Game 7 in the ALCS. That might give them the needed confidence or cause fatigue—we’ll see.
Key Matchups to Watch
The key matchups to look out for are as follows:
- Blake Snell vs. Toronto lineup – Snell has been near-untouchable in the playoffs. We’ll have to look out for how Toronto’s offense handles his arsenal, especially his change-up and left-hand angle.
- Toronto’s hitters vs. Dodgers starters – The Blue Jays can force the bullpen and introduce risk if they get early hits off the Dodgers’ starter. However, we must note that the Dodgers’ starters are sharp.
- Bullpen impact – The bullpen will become the battleground if either starter exits early or gives up big. Also, Toronto may attempt to expose the Dodgers’ vulnerable pen.
- Psychology & momentum – Toronto will likely be fatigued from its longer ALCS run. The Dodgers, on the other hand, will be fresher. These differences could show up late or in critical innings.
- Total runs angle – Given the strong offenses and high-quality starters, this game could have a high run count or stay under with dominant pitching.
Betting Angles & Trends
The trend shows that dominant starters in Game 1 often win outright. For this game, Snell fits that pattern and can deliver the win for the Dodgers.
If the underdogs have a potent offense, the trend shows that they can cover the spread, especially if the favorite is expected to win. That presents betting value.
As for the total of 7.5, many analytical models project runs around 9.4 for this game. That suggests an appeal for the over bet.
The Dodgers’ run line of -1.5 at +115 is attractive, and you’ll get an extra payout if you believe they will win by 2+.
If you go with the Dodgers ML at -150, you’ll be risking more for less. The -1.5 line, on the other hand, offers more reward for the same outcome (win by 2+).
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
🥇 Best Bet #1: Dodgers -150 (Confidence 7/10)
🔍 Rationale & Handicapping Breakdown
Blake Snell has been dominant this postseason, with elite command of both his slider and changeup. He has also held opposing hitters to a sub-.170 BAA through three postseason starts. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, haven’t faced many lefties with Snell’s kind of swing-and-miss stuff. They also had weaker splits against LHPs during the regular season (.239 AVG vs LHP, .258 vs RHP).
The Dodgers are battle-tested, winning big October games for years. They also have a roster that doesn’t rattle in hostile environments (Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, and Lux). Toronto, by contrast, is making its first World Series appearance in three decades. It will have the crowd energy, but will likely still be nervous early.
The Dodgers have more time to rest and prepare, with their five full days of rest, reset rotation, and healthy bullpen. Toronto doesn’t have that luxury as it comes off a seven-game ALCS slugfest, meaning short rest for pitchers like Gausman and bullpen arms like Romano and Swanson. The Dodgers take the edge here, and if experience is anything to go by, that is often a hidden edge in Game 1.
Oddsmakers like ESPNBet opened the Dodgers at around -185. However, sharp money has nudged it to -150, signaling that professional bettors back LA’s side. There hasn’t been any reverse line movement as well, indicating sustained confidence from sharper books.
Snell will likely silence bats early, allowing the Dodgers to plate a few off Toronto’s middle relief. Toronto’s bats may press too much early against off-speed command.
Projected Value: The rough 60-62% implied probability against the projected 64-65% win rate brings slight value on LA ML.
🥈 Best Bet #2: Dodgers –1.5 (Confidence 6/10)
🔍 Rationale & Handicapping Breakdown
The Dodgers tend to win comfortably with Snell on the mound. 19 of his last 25 wins came by 2+ runs, and that dates back to 2024, by the way. Snell’s ability to limit baserunners typically forces opponents to string hits together, and that is not something the Blue Jays’ feast-or-famine lineup excels at.
The Blue Jays will likely start Kevin Gausman, who’s shown late-season inconsistencies (1.36 WHIP over his last 6 starts). LA’s lineup works deep counts and elevates pitch counts early. That will likely push Gausman to the pen by the 5th. If that happens, then it’ll set up middle relievers against the heart of the Dodgers’ order, which is a dangerous mismatch.
The Dodgers averaged 5.4 runs per game on the road this season and ranked among the top 3 in the MLB when it comes to hard-contact rate. Toronto’s bullpen will struggle to claw back if the Dodgers get an early lead. That is because its ERA balloons past 4.50 when trailing after the 5th.
The +120 payout is attractive because if LA wins, there’s roughly a 70% likelihood it’ll be by 2 or more. That is based on run-distribution analytics from comparable matchups, like when you have an elite starter and a potent lineup against a fatigued opponent.
Historically, road favorites in World Series Game 1 are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS since 2000. That is, of course, when the team has at least 4 days of rest—the Dodgers have five.
Projected Score Differential: The Dodgers will likely win by ~2 runs on average. That scoreline supports a small but calculated exposure to the run line for value hunters.
🥉 Best Bet #3: Over 7.5 Runs (Confidence 5/10)
🔍 Rationale & Handicapping Breakdown
I am not so confident in this bet, but here are a few factors I believe could make it happen:
Early totals opened at 7.0, leaning towards the over (-115). Bettors pushed it to 7.5 EVEN and now to 7.5 (-105). That indicates that bettors expect a scoring uptick.
The Dodgers feature one of MLB’s most balanced offenses. 4 hitters have 25+ HR, while 5 players have over .350 OBPs. The Blue Jays are equally formidable, featuring Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Varsho, all of whom are capable of leaving the yard, even against elite arms.
Both bullpens have cracks. LA’s middle relief has allowed 1.48 HR/9 over the past two months. Toronto’s setup crew, on the other hand, has been gassed pre-Romano. Their average fastball velocity dropped nearly 1 mph in the ALCS.
Rogers Centre is neutral overall but is also slightly hitter-friendly indoors. The warm interior temperature and zero wind resistance from a closed roof will keep balls from carrying. Historically, that adds about +0.2 runs per game when compared to open-air October conditions.
Toronto will swing more aggressively if LA jumps ahead early. That will likely elevate the total run probability. Also, you have to factor in Snell. If he is sharp, the Dodgers’ bats alone could push 5-6 runs.
Several advanced projection systems, like the Bat X and ZiPS postseason models, have simulated totals around 8.2 to 8.5 runs. That means there is a value over 7.5 (-105).
Ideal Play Style: A half-unit exposure or parlay inclusion will correlate well with the Dodgers ML if you expect offensive rhythm early and bullpen scoring late.
The lines for the Dodgers vs Blue Jays Game 1 are already shifting. Don’t miss the value—compare live odds at our top sports-betting sites now.
🧠 Quick Professional Notes
- Correlated Angles: Dodgers ML + Over 7.5 has a moderate correlation (if LA wins comfortably, the game will more likely hit over).
- Bank Allocation:
- Dodgers ML -150 → Main bet (1.5 units)
- Dodgers -1.5 (+115) → Smaller secondary bet (0.75 unit)
- Over 7.5 (-105) → Lean/half-unit exposure
Risk Factors & What Could Change the Game
Consider the following:
- The underdog value will swing dramatically if Snell falters early.
- You can expect a dynamic shift if the Blue Jays name a surprise starter who matches well.
- The wind and temperature (weather or conditions) at Rogers Center could affect run totals, although the pitch is expected to be closed with zero wind.
- An unexpected injury or a big early inning could flip the momentum.
- A late-game bullpen chaos could make the total balloon or swing the spread.
- If the Dodgers are overconfident, they might end up with a sluggish start.
Final Word & Action Plan
The strongest play, in my opinion, is the Dodgers’ outright win. They have the starting edge and rest advantage. The run line at +120 also offers bonus value if you believe a 2+ run margin is likely. For the total, over 7.5 is a reasonable secondary play, given the offensive firepower on both sides.
Your Action Plan
- Lock in your bets early while the odds are favorable.
- Consider splitting your bankroll, using a heavier stake on the favorite ML and lighter stakes on the run line and total.
- Look out for last-minute pitching announcements, weather changes, and lineup shifts.
- Manage risks and avoid chasing big payouts for mid-confidence picks.
So, what will your bet be for Game 1? Drop a comment, and we can discuss further. Also, keep in mind that we will have a prop-bet guide and Game 2 preview once the starters are confirmed.
The Opener Edge: Why Game 1 Matters
Just to recap my best bets again, we have the Dodgers ML at -150, the Dodgers run line at -1.5 (+120), and the total at over 7.5 (-105). The Dodgers have better rest and momentum, with Snell providing an edge. Toronto has an equally capable offense with the home-field advantage.
Keep in mind that things may swing the other way if Snell falters early. Last-minute pitching announcements could cause shifts as well.
Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 5, Blue Jays 3
You can expect a strong start from the Dodgers, with a couple of early runs. And don’t forget to manage your bankroll effectively.
We are eager to hear your thoughts as well. So, remember to drop a comment for us.
