Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons MNF Prediction & Top Bets (October 13, 2025)
Week 6 is underway in the NFL, and the Monday Night Football slot gives us the Buffalo Bills at the Atlanta Falcons in Georgia.
Kickoff is at 7:15 pm ET at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and Buffalo (4-1) is fresh off its first loss to the New England Patriots. Atlanta’s record is 2-2; they had a bye week, so they come in rested and ready to run.
The Bills’ loss to the Patriots was bewildering to a lot of people, but they still have Josh Allen and are the AFC fav, so the Falcons will have to be on their A++++ game to get a win here.
The market has Buffalo at a 4.5-point advantage, but is the price a little too high for this matchup? Atlanta is finding its feet, after all.
Buffalo is at -4.5 as the favorite; the total is set at 49.5. The market numbers are predicting a close game where both teams’ offenses will move the ball.
Will Buffalo’s defense be able to clamp down on Atlanta’s run game? Keep scrolling to read all about this matchup; we’ve got the current betting odds, team strengths and weaknesses, main matchups, angles to watch, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills (4-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
- Date & Time: Monday, Oct 13 at 7:15 pm ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
- How to Watch: ESPN
Betting Odds
Monday Night Football is primetime betting territory! Here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Spread: Bills –3.5 (-115) vs Falcons +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Bills –205, Falcons +172
- Total: Over 49.5 (-118) / Under 49.5 (-104)
Team Strengths & Weaknesses
Alright, let’s get into where both squads excel and what could use a little work!
Buffalo Bills
Let’s start with the Bills’ highs and lows:
Strengths
- QB versatility: Josh Allen can extend plays, attack multiple levels, and force defenses to defend the whole field.
- Offensive versatility: Dalton Kincaid works the seams, Keon Coleman stretches coverage vertically, and James Cook bursts out of the backfield.
- Front-seven discipline: The linebackers read and close space quickly, which limits short-yardage gains.
Weaknesses/Concerns
- Self-inflicted errors: Against New England, Buffalo had 11 penalties for 90 yards and three turnovers, which put the defense in short fields.
- Interior depth concerns: Ed Oliver is inactive (ankle injury), and T.J. Sanders missed time, and that leaves the middle exposed to power runs.
- Secondary vulnerability: Christian Benford and Tre’Davious White have been targeted really heavily, and explosive receivers have found some success against them.
- Coaching tension: There have been reports about friction between Sean McDermott and OC Joe Brady following questionable offensive sequencing in the Patriots’ loss.
Atlanta Falcons
And now the Falcons’ strengths and weak spots:
Strengths
- Run game anchor: Bijan Robinson is the heart and soul of Atlanta’s offense. His involvement in carrying and receiving check-ins gives Atlanta lots of flexibility.
- Pass-blocking line: Ryan Neuzil and Elijah Wilkinson have really stepped up in 2025; they’ve helped Atlanta create one of the better pass protection units early in the season.
- Offensive balance: The Falcons can go from ground to air quickly when defenses overcommit to stopping the run.
- Play-call upside: They’ve shown they have the ability to make the pace and disguise run/pass when it’s needed.
Weaknesses/Risks
- Defensive inconsistency: Multiple rankings put the Falcons’ defense near the bottom; the preseason rankings slot them 29th.
- Interior D-line youth: The defensive front doesn’t have proven depth; the interior rushers have not consistently collapsed pockets.
- Coverage depth questions: Behind the starters, Atlanta’s secondary has a hard time matching up against receivers who can grab contested throws.
- Pressure generation: Historically, the Falcons haven’t produced high pressure rates; they’re betting on rookies like Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to contribute.
Main Matchups & Angles to Monitor
What are the on-field battles that will define how this game shakes out between Buffalo and Atlanta? The following six factors:
1. Falcons’ Run Game vs. Buffalo’s Front Seven
Bijan Robinson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and is Atlanta’s most reliable chain-mover. Since Ed Oliver is out, Buffalo’s interior rotation (DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle) has to close interior gaps and win first contact. If Robinson finds daylight between the tackles? Atlanta can shorten drives and control the pace.
2. Buffalo’s Pass Rush vs. Michael Penix Jr.
Penix has been sacked eight times in four games and forced throws when he was under interior heat. Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa will try to collapse the pocket quickly, and that will test Atlanta’s protection calls. The Falcons might counter with heavy use of tight ends and quick-read progressions to neutralize any pressure.
3. Turnovers and Misdirection Plays
Josh Allen’s insane risk tolerance always makes Buffalo dangerous, but it also makes them more volatile. His ability to extend plays outside the structure creates touchdowns and takeaways. Atlanta’s staff has mixed in screens, reverses, and motion runs to keep defenses guessing, so Buffalo’s linebackers have to diagnose it fast or they’ll get caught out of position.
4. Game Flow and Adjustments
If Buffalo gets an early two-score margin, Joe Brady could lean on ball control and inside zone runs to drain time. But if Atlanta stays within one possession? They’ll keep feeding Robinson and challenge Buffalo’s linebackers with play-action shots to Kyle Pitts or Drake London. Late possessions will decide the cover outcomes.
5. Receiver Matchups and Coverage Windows
Keon Coleman gets a really favorable matchup against Atlanta’s second corner, and defenses go man-to-man; Kincaid’s agility usually wins. Atlanta’s coverage structure is zone-heavy; if safeties bite on intermediate play-action, Buffalo will push vertical routes behind them.
6. Crowd Noise and Communication
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is among the NFL’s loudest indoor venues. Buffalo’s offensive line will rely on silent counts, and that could delay snap timing and open blitz windows. Atlanta will capitalize on the noise energy, but they need to start fast and keep the fans engaged into the second half!
Historical & Betting Trends
- Falcons ATS Struggles: Atlanta is 3–7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Buffalo vs. NFC: The Bills are 6–1 straight-up in their last 7 games with NFC opponents.
- Over Trends (Buffalo): The Bills have hit the Over in 5 of their last 7 overall games.
- Road Overs: Buffalo is 5–1 to the Over in its last 6 road games.
- Falcons as Home Underdogs: The Totals have leaned Under in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 home underdog games.
- Bills After a Loss: Buffalo has covered in 4 straight games following a loss.
Game Projection & Prediction
- First half: Buffalo starts the game with downhill runs and layered play-action to hold back Atlanta’s linebackers. The Falcons load the box and try to collapse interior gaps, but Allen’s quick release keeps drives alive. Both defenses will trade stops, and field position will dictate game flow.
- Mid-game: Atlanta uses Bijan Robinson to wear down Buffalo’s front. Penix Jr. works short timing routes to avoid pressure; he uses motion to spot coverage of any tells. Buffalo will use zone and delayed rush looks to disrupt his rhythm, and that will force punts and third-and-longs.
- Late: Buffalo’s front four continues to collapse Atlanta’s pocket, which forces Penix Jr. into rushed progressions. The Falcons won’t be able to stay balanced once the Bills take away early-down runs. One hurried throw will turn into a takeaway, and Buffalo capitalizes with a short field to extend the lead.
Our Best Bets
What are we betting on for MNF? We’ve got four pretty solid angles!
1. Bills -3.5 (-115)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (High – 65%)
- Recommended Units: 1.5–2 units
Why Do We Like It?
- Rebound Position: Buffalo comes in at 4–1 after losing to New England in Week 5. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are unbeaten ATS in their last four games following a straight-up loss.
- Quarterback Differential: Josh Allen’s mobility and arm strength give Buffalo an advantage over rookie Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate, which gives QBs the time to throw.
- Front Alignment Mismatch: The Falcons’ defense is structured to clog inside runs, not to contain mobile passers. Expect Buffalo to use play-action and Allen’s movement to extend possessions and force Atlanta’s linebackers into space.
- Situational Trend: Buffalo has covered five of its last six Monday Night Football appearances and has a 6-1 straight-up mark against NFC teams under McDermott.
Risk Factor
If Buffalo’s giveaways re-emerge or Atlanta sustains a long series with Bijan Robinson, the scoring margin could turn into a possession game.
2. Over 49.5 (-118)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate – 60%)
- Recommended Units: 1–1.25 units
Why Do We Like It?
- Offensive Production on Both Sides: Buffalo ranks in the top five in total offense, averaging over 390 yards and 30 points per game through Week 5. Atlanta has averaged 25.5 points at home; they can score when the passing game is clicking.
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Buffalo’s interior front has looked really vulnerable without Ed Oliver; it’s allowed 140+ rushing yards in consecutive games. That sets up the opportunity for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to find daylight between the tackles. Atlanta’s defense gives up 6.1 yards per pass attempt, which creates plenty of space for Josh Allen’s vertical routes and scramble extensions.
- Scoring Environment: The controlled setting inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium removes any weather risk and favors passing. Both teams rank among the league’s top 10 in second-half scoring, and points usually build as games progress.
- Situational Trend: Buffalo’s last five games against NFC opponents have averaged 54 combined points; their matchups usually exceed the market totals when they’re up against unfamiliar defenses.
Risk Factor
If Atlanta stalls on third down or if Buffalo slows the tempo once it’s ahead? The scoring chances could go down in the second half.
3. Bijan Robinson Over Rushing Yards (Player Prop)
- Projected Line: Around 72.5 yards (estimate — confirm when posted)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (High – 65%)
- Recommended Units: 1 unit
Why Do We Like It?
- Favorable Matchup: Buffalo has given up 140+ rushing yards in consecutive weeks, and their interior line is still without Ed Oliver. That gap has allowed opposing backs to find steady yardage between the tackles.
- Workload Assurance: Robinson averages 17 touches per game, which makes him one of Atlanta’s most used players regardless of the score. The Falcons’ coaching staff has stressed they want to get back to a balanced run-first identity after their bye week.
- Scheme Advantage: Atlanta runs primarily outside and inside zone concepts under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. That system targets Buffalo’s current weakness (lateral run fits and backside pursuit), the areas that were exposed in their last two games.
- Game Flow Flexibility: Even if Atlanta is behind, Robinson is still part of the offense with designed screens and draw runs. His open-field burst and elusiveness turn short gains into chunk yardage, and that will help this prop cash even in neutral or negative game scripts.
Risk Factor
If Buffalo takes an early multi-score lead and forces Atlanta to abandon its ground game, Robinson’s carry count could flatten out late. But early volume and favorable blocking matchups give him a really strong chance to hit the over.
4. Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate to High – 62%)
- Recommended Units: 1 unit
Why Do We Like It?
- Favorable Defensive Matchup: Atlanta’s pass defense has been one of its soft spots. The Falcons are allowing over 260 passing yards per game and sit in the bottom third of the NFL in opponent yards per attempt. Their secondary behind A.J. Terrell lacks depth, and communication issues have happened when they are up against mobile, off-play quarterbacks.
- Passing Volume Outlook: Buffalo relies almost exclusively on Allen’s arm when against front-sevens that limit the run, and Atlanta’s defensive line has been way sturdier against rushing attacks than downfield passing. Expect offensive coordinator Joe Brady to build early series around spread formations and play-action, using intermediate crossers to open vertical seams later on.
- Track Record in Prime Time: Allen has averaged 304 passing yards in his last six Monday Night Football games; he routinely pushes totals higher when the Bills are featured nationally. His comfort level in these settings adds a lot of confidence to this prop.
- Supporting Cast in Form: Tight end Dalton Kincaid has become Allen’s most reliable target on third down, and rookie Keon Coleman adds downfield separation that Atlanta’s corners have had a hard time containing. Running back James Cook has also seen more work in checkdowns and wheel routes, which pads Allen’s total with safe completions.
Risk Factor
If Buffalo builds a wide lead early and goes to clock management, Allen’s yardage ceiling could flatten in the final quarter. But as long as the Falcons stay within one score, his passing volume should comfortably clear the posted number.
Buffalo Has the Edge Over Atlanta
We are backing the Bills to beat the Falcons this week! We think the loss to the Patriots was a fluke; they didn’t play terribly, they just couldn’t get it done in the end.
Josh Allen is the more battle-tested QB when you compare him to Michael Penix Jr., and Buffalo’s offense will be able to contain Atlanta’s run game!
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 27 – Atlanta 20
