Tigers vs. Mariners Game 5 Preview & Prediction (October 10, 2025)

It’s Game 5 of the ALDS final! The winner heads to the ALCS 2025 MLB playoffs, and the loser? They’re out.

The Detroit Tigers are at the Seattle Mariners for one last game on Oct. 10 at T-Mobile Park; first pitch is fired off at 8:08 p.m. ET.

The series is now tied up at 2-2, and the Mariners looked like they were gonna win Game 4; they had an early lead, but the fifth inning changed everything. From the fifth on, the Tigers came roaring back with nine runs and sealed the deal.

Game 5 is all or nothing for both clubs, so no pressure or anything! Who do we think will be advancing?

Keep reading for a breakdown of the series, the latest betting odds, angles, starting pitchers, pitcher vs. batter matchups, and what we feel are the three best bets!

Game Details

• Matchup: Detroit Tigers (2-2) @ Seattle Mariners (2-2)
• Date & Time: Friday, October 10, at 8:08 p.m. ET (5:08 p.m. PT)
• Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
• How to Watch: Broadcasting nationally on FOX in the U.S.; streaming on MLB.TV

Series Context & Momentum

First up is a quick recap of the series so far!

Series Recap

• Game 1: Seattle struck for a go-ahead RBI in the 7th off Detroit’s bullpen and held on with two scoreless relief innings from Castillo.
• Game 2: The Mariners pushed across three runs in the 4th via a Betts double and an Ohtani sacrifice fly; their relievers then tangled with Tigers’ hitters to hang onto the lead.
• Game 3 & 4: Detroit evened up the series with a 9–3 Game 4 win. They were behind 3–0, but rallied in the 5th and 6th with homers from Greene, Báez, and Torres.

Momentum & Psychology

• Detroit rode a Game 4 outburst to force a deciding game; their hitters demonstrated that when they lock in, they can pressure starters over multiple innings.
• Seattle has to get back control at home, and any bullpen error could ramp up the tension in front of their fans.

Injury or Roster Flags

• Seattle is without Bryan Woo; he’s out with pectoral tightness, and that’s a huge loss for the Mariners’ rotation depth.
• At the time of publication, no other major injuries or bullpen overuse issues have been publicly confirmed.

Betting Odds

Ready to make your bets? Here are the current odds and lines for Game 5 according to DraftKings:

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Who’s starting for Detroit and Seattle? Here’s the latest on the pitchers being sent out:

Key Matchups/Batter vs Pitcher

• Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber versus four-seam up and splitter down is the decision point; Kirby’s ability to land breaking balls for strikes limits their search for middle-in pitches. 
• Torkelson and Torres versus elevated four-seam and front-door slider will determine if Detroit can pull-side damage or settle for flyouts.
• Platoon and bullpen bridge: Right-right lanes set up Andrés Muñoz and Seattle’s right-hand relief to follow; if Detroit stacks lefties, Seattle can change to a left-hand pocket before the ninth inning.
• Edge and volatility versus Skubal: Kirby’s contact control lowers traffic when he’s in the zone; the risk happens if four-seam command leaks arm-side and Detroit’s right-hand bats jump earlier in counts. The overall margin for error is moderate, given Skubal’s form.

Please Note: At the moment of writing, Seattle had the Game 5 starter as TBD on the club’s Probable Pitchers page, and the team coverage indicated the choice was between George Kirby and Luis Castillo.

Hitting vs. Pitching & Key Batter Matchups

How have the hitters been faring against the opposing pitchers? Look below! 

Tigers Offense

• Who has been producing: Riley Greene homered 454 feet in Game 4; Javier Báez recorded a multi-hit, multi-RBI game; Spencer Torkelson has four hits and four RBIs over the past three games, with doubles in three straight.
• How they’ve hit certain pitch types or velocity zones: Detroit punished middle-middle offerings in Game 4, including mistakes that Greene and Báez lifted; watch for fastballs at the belt and sliders that don’t finish to be targeted again.
• Success vs lefties vs righties: Game 5’s setup suggests that Seattle will choose a right-hand starter (Kirby or Castillo), and Detroit’s projected order stacks left-hand bats around Gleyber Torres to force Seattle’s hand on bullpen timing.
• Recent at-bat trends, hot/cold streaks: Torkelson trending up (extra-base hits in three straight); Greene snapped an 0-for-9 with the 454-footer; Báez had multiple hits in Game 4.

Mariners Offense

• Which batters are matchup threats vs Skubal or bullpen arms: Jorge Polanco took Skubal deep twice in Game 2; Cal Raleigh is 7-for-16 in the series and has been Seattle’s best hitter here; Julio Rodríguez cooled off in Detroit but has a .825 OPS at T-Mobile Park since the All-Star break.
• Depth beyond the 3–4 hitters: The projected lineup features Randy Arozarena at leadoff with contact and speed, Eugenio Suárez for pull power, Josh Naylor for left-side thump, and Mitch Garver as a right-hand DH look.
• Adjustments made in the series: Seattle’s best inning against Skubal came when they attacked get-ahead heaters and hung spin in the zone (Game 2 sequence around Polanco). Expect early count hunting of four-seam up and any slider that backs up!

Pinch-hitters/Bench Threats

• Who could come off the bench: Detroit can pivot to right-hand bats if Seattle brings a lefty pocket (like Speier), and Seattle can counter with a single-batter lefty before going back to right-hand velocity.
• Which hitters thrive in small-sample or high-leverage pinch roles: MLB’s Game 5 FAQ points to Hinch arranging left-handers at the top to manufacture bullpen choices; that structure leaves Detroit with right-hand counters on the bench, and Seattle’s consistency vs. left-right choice sets up Muñoz and right-hand lanes in late innings.

Game Script & Totals Dynamics

How will this game play out? It looks like Detroit will try to stretch pitch counts with left-hand pockets around Greene and Báez to get Seattle into right-on-right relief lanes. Seattle will be looking for early count fastballs in order to avoid Skubal’s slider leverage and then funnel to Andrés Muñoz for right-hand matchups in the eighth or ninth!

Run-line Considerations

• Tigers −1.5 (+143)
• Mariners +1.5 (−175)

One-run finishes are really common in elimination games, so +1.5 can be the safest path if you expect a close score! If you rate Skubal with a clear edge over a TBD Seattle starter, the −1.5 price is the more aggressive alternative.

Total (6)

• Over 6 (−101) vs Under 6 (−120)

A 6 total matches up with a pitcher-friendly venue and cool, damp conditions. If rotations hand the ball straight to back-end relievers with minimal middle-inning exposure? The Under gets more support. If the starter choice forces Seattle to bridge multiple innings before Muñoz, scoring variance goes up toward the Over.

Weather & Park

• Park tendencies: T-Mobile Park is characterized as run-suppressed relative to the league average in night games, and that supports a lower baseline total.
• Forecast conditions: The National Weather Service calls for rain in Seattle on Friday evening with temperatures near 50–52°F and light south wind around 6 mph; cooler, moist air cuts back on carry.

Marketplace/Line Movement & Value Angles

• Line shaping: Opened DET −132 / SEA +109, total 6 at DraftKings, and current boards are around DET −140 / SEA +118, total 5.5, so money has moved toward Detroit and the Under.
• Money flow (pros vs public): The drift from −132 to around −140 and the total from 6 to 5.5 signals there’s earlier pro action on Detroit and on lower scoring. Public bettors usually get in closer to first pitch and can push prices back the other way.
• Value pockets: Plus side: If you project a one-run outcome at T-Mobile Park, SEA +1.5 (about −180) fits a low-total environment, but the price is high. DET −1.5 (about +150) makes more sense, but only if you rate a multi-run Skubal edge.
• Totals: A drop from 6 to 5.5 tightens margins. If your model still makes a median of 6.2–6.3 runs, Over 5.5 still has value; if you’re at 5.2–5.4, pass or wait for a live 6.5 after an uneventful first inning.
• Overlay/mispricing checks: SEA +1.5 looks better if Seattle names Kirby (contact control, fewer free passes); DET −1.5 has more appeal if Castillo is confirmed and his four-seam location trends middle, since that raises run-cluster risk against Detroit’s right-hand bats.

Hedging and Live Adjustments

• After 2 innings: Track pitch counts and first-time-through results. If Skubal is under ~30 pitches with two or fewer hard-hit balls? The live Under or DET ML improves. If Seattle forces 40+ pitches from Skubal, think about SEA +1.5 live.
• First score swing: If either side posts a solo run without traffic, totals usually hold; if a crooked number comes with long at-bats and multiple hard-hit balls, grab the Over 6.5 or 7.5 live when it appears.
• Bullpen trigger: If Seattle announces the non-starter (Kirby or Castillo) is available in relief, tighten your exposure on Overs and spreads that depend on late offense; that note usually shortens live totals and props.

Run-line Considerations

• One-run finishes are commonplace in elimination games at run-suppressed parks. If you’re price-sensitive? You can target SEA +1.5 at −165 or better, or DET −1.5 at +160 or better instead of paying for mid-market numbers.

Live/In-game Angles

• Watch the 1st and 2nd innings for fastball command and slider finish from Skubal. Clean edges and early whiffs support live Unders and Detroit positions. Missed edges and deep counts point to variance and live Overs.
• If one team jumps to a 2+ run lead by the 4th inning and the non-starter is still available in relief, think about a small hedge on the trailing side’s +1.5 live at plus money instead of chasing a long moneyline!

Our Best Bets

What do we think are the best bets for Game 5? We’ve got three angles to consider!

Odds for Tigers vs. Mariners Game 5 are shifting fast as bettors weigh Skubal’s edge over George Kirby. Stay ahead of the market and lock in value at one of the best online sportsbooks.

Don’t Count Seattle Out, But We’re Backing the Tigers

Final Score Prediction: Tigers 4, Mariners 3

Some analysts are going with Seattle, but not us! Nope, we are backing Detroit to win Game 5 and advance to the ALCS.

Why? Because we know who’s pitching for the Tigers (a certified southpaw ace), and that’s all we need to know for this game. We aren’t saying anything crazy is gonna happen; the game will be close, but Detroit has Skubal and a stacked bullpen, so we think they’ll take the win.

Best Bets Recap

• Tigers −1.5 (+143): 7/10
• Over 6 (−101): 5/10
• Mariners +1.5 (−175) / Tigers ML −138 (4–5/10