Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Game 4 NLDS Prediction (October 9, 2025)
Milwaukee leads 2–1 in this best-of-5, after the Cubs dodged elimination in Game 3 with a gritty 4–3 win. That victory gives Chicago life, but it also used up bullpen arms and momentum.
The Brewers, meanwhile, remain in command. Best-of-five series data confirm that teams ahead 2–1 win the series a strong majority of the time. Add to that home-field shifts: Game 4 is in Chicago, and the Cubs will lean into their crowd and emotion.
But Milwaukee holds structural advantages: deeper rotation options, rested bullpen, and balanced offense. If they execute, they can finish this here. For Chicago, everything becomes higher variance — one swing, one bullpen meltdown, one shift break, and it’s over.
Prediction Breakdown
53.6%
46.4%
According to GamblingSite.com
Probable Pitching / Matchup Notes
As of this writing, the starters haven’t been officially confirmed. But we can project based on available depth, rest, and matchups.
- Brewers side: Freddy Peralta is often cited as Milwaukee’s ace and likely Game 4 option. He’s had a 17–6 record this season, with a 2.70 ERA and 204 strikeouts over 176⅔ innings. Because the Brewers had a first-round bye, they have flexibility to deploy him. If Peralta draws the nod, he offers a credible threat to suppress the Cubs’ lineup.
- Cubs side: Chicago’s rotation is more taxed. Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon have already seen postseason work or used peripheral innings. The Cubs may turn to a bullpen starter or a less ideal arm, increasing volatility.
Given this disparity, Milwaukee gains an edge even before the first pitch.
We should also favor the more reliable bullpens, because in October, leverage innings matter just as much (if not more) than starter length.
Offensive Trends & Key Hitters
Let’s look at who’s been doing damage (or flailing) so far — and what that means for Game 4.
Milwaukee
- Jake Bauers rejoined the lineup in Game 3 and delivered: two hits, two RBIs, including a homer.
- Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and other regulars provide balance and consistent threat.
- Milwaukee is hitting with runners in scoring position and attacking mid-zone pitches — not just swinging for the fences.
Chicago
- Michael Busch has homered in leadoff spots in multiple games this series (G1 and G3). He’s become a spark plug.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong delivered a big two-run hit in the first inning of Game 3.
- But here’s the problem: outside of those early-frame surges, Chicago’s offense has been mostly dormant. They’ve scored primarily in the first inning this series — 8 runs in first innings across games, compared to just 2 runs in the remaining 23 innings.
If the Cubs don’t get to Milwaukee’s starter early, this could get quiet fast.
Bullpen Landscape & Leverage
This is where October games live or die. The cellar of the game often belongs to the arms coming out of the pen.
Cubs bullpen
Chicago’s bullpen has turned into a postseason strength. Excluding Shota Imanaga’s bulk relief role, the Cubs relievers posted a 1.23 ERA in 14 2⁄3 innings during the Wild Card series. Their strikeout rate was strong (30.8%) down the stretch. Brad Keller picked up the save in Game 3, fanning Jake Bauers with the bases loaded in the 8th.
They have arms who match up well in high-leverage spots — but their depth is tested if forced to go multiple innings.
Brewers bullpen
Milwaukee’s bullpen is well-rested and battle-tested. Their season bullpen ERA was 3.63, ranking sixth in MLB. In September, that unit tightened further: 2.91 ERA, solid FIP, good strikeout and ground-ball rates.
Across this series so far, the Brewers bullpen has allowed just one run in 18 innings. That’s dominance. But Game 3 did demand work. If those arms are taxed, it could open cracks.
Between the two, I lean Milwaukee’s bullpen as more reliable under stress, given room to maneuver and earlier rest.
Situational Angles & Small Edges
Here’s where a writer can inject depth and credibility. These are little edges that can swing bets and narratives.
- First 3 innings matter. The Cubs have shown they can strike early (Busch leadoff homers, Crow-Armstrong hits), but beyond that their bats cool off. If Milwaukee avoids damage early, they can control pace.
- Game script leverage. If Milwaukee leads, they’ll play more conservatively (shifting, bullpen sequencing). If Cubs lead, they’ll go for high-leverage risk — bullpen gambles, aggressive base running, etc.
- Weather / wind. Wrigley’s wind can either suppress power or aid it; if the wind’s blowing out, totals may push up.
- Bench depth & pinch options. Which manager has better options late? Milwaukee’s lineup balance gives them more flexibility for matchup changes.
- Managerial calls. Craig Counsell (with Brewers history) vs. Pat Murphy — bullpen hooks, double-switch timing, matchup exploitation will matter.
- Momentum vs. fatigue. Cubs are riding adrenaline after Game 3, but their arms and hitters may be worn. Milwaukee needs to stay composed and not overreact to crowd.
Odds & Market Thoughts
Let’s anchor where the value lies, and where the betting public might overreact.
Current ESPN BET lines:
- Run line: Brewers −1.5 (+145) / Cubs +1.5 (−175)
- Moneyline: Brewers −125 / Cubs +105
- Total (O/U 7.5): Over +105 / Under −125
Implied win chances (roughly):
- Brewers ML −125 → ~55.6%
- Cubs +105 → ~48.8%
The +145 on Brewers −1.5 suggests the book sees enough juice to move serious money. If you believe Milwaukee has an edge in the bullpen and rotation mismatch, that line offers value.
I’ll also watch early money on Cubs +1.5 — if sharp bettors jump that side, the line could shift. On totals, Under 7.5 at −125 is priced favorably, but given how Chicago’s offense has acted, Over has appeal.
In short: I see value on the run line more than the moneyline, and I respect sharp interest on totals.
Risks & Counterarguments
A good handicapper acknowledges what could go wrong. Here are Cubs’ paths to an upset:
- Momentum and urgency could fuel Chicago into overdrive.
- If Milwaukee’s starter falters early, the Cubs’ bullpen is legit and can lock down a mid-run game.
- Weather conditions may amplify offense unexpectedly.
- One swing — or one reliever collapse — and the game is flipped. Baseball is variance.
If the Cubs generate a big inning or Milwaukee mismanages a relief sequence, this game gets dicey quick.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Game 4 is one of those matchups where the edges aren’t flashy, but they’re real — bullpen depth, managerial discipline, and offensive consistency over variance. Milwaukee holds more of those edges right now. Let’s break down the plays.
Bet #1: Brewers -1.5 (+145)
Confidence Level: Medium-High (7.5/10)
Milwaukee has been the more complete team all series. They’ve shown the ability to string together quality at-bats, stay patient in the zone, and get timely hits with runners in scoring position — something Chicago still struggles to sustain beyond the first few innings.
If Freddy Peralta gets the start as expected, that’s the key anchor for this bet. He’s been outstanding in the second half of the season, posting a 2.70 ERA and holding right-handed hitters to a .192 batting average. Against the Cubs this year, Peralta has logged a 1.85 ERA in three starts, striking out 25 in just 19.1 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio remains elite (5.8 K/BB), which limits blow-up innings — vital in a playoff spot.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is also built to protect a lead. With Abner Uribe and Joel Payamps setting the table for closer Devin Williams, they can shorten games effectively once ahead. That gives more safety to a run-line cover late, especially if the Cubs start pressing.
Offensively, Christian Yelich and Jake Bauers have been producing quality contact. Milwaukee ranks in the top 10 in postseason slugging and has been one of the best at creating runs via doubles and sac flies — indicators of sustainable offense, not just hot streaks.
The Cubs’ path to beating this number relies on early runs and another bullpen shutdown. But after heavy usage in Game 3, fatigue risk is real. Brad Keller, Mark Leiter Jr., and company may not have the same sharpness or command in back-to-backs.
Handicapper’s Take: If Peralta handles the first five, Milwaukee likely wins by multiple runs. Take the +145 while it’s available — that’s solid value given how these two teams match up on depth and rest.
Bet #2: Over 7.5 (+105)
Confidence Level: Medium (6.5/10)
While postseason unders often cash due to tight pitching, this game has quiet over potential.
Wrigley Field is one of those parks where conditions drive totals more than reputations. Forecast models show light-to-moderate wind blowing out to left-center Wednesday night — not a gale, but enough to boost long-ball carry. With both lineups featuring several pull-heavy lefties (Yelich, Busch, Crow-Armstrong), that’s a meaningful variable.
Both teams are also showing signs of early-inning aggression. The Cubs have scored in the first inning in two of three games this series, and Milwaukee has responded with crooked numbers of its own in the middle innings. Neither side is sitting back — both are chasing early leads, which can force quicker hooks for pitchers and bring middle relievers into play before the 5th inning. That tends to nudge totals higher in postseason games.
The bullpens have been sharp overall, but regression is due — especially for Chicago’s relief corps, which has allowed just one earned run across 14+ innings since the Wild Card round. That’s not sustainable over another multi-inning exposure.
Milwaukee also thrives on extra-base power. Their team OPS with runners in scoring position this postseason is .847 — elite territory. They’re not chasing much, but when they do swing, it’s for damage. A few loud barrels can open this game up fast.
Handicapper’s Take: Expect at least one big inning — possibly the 4th or 6th — to swing this total over. With postseason nerves and wind at Wrigley, there’s just enough volatility to push this past 7.5 runs.
Bonus Lean: First 5 Innings Moneyline — Brewers (-120)
Confidence Level: Medium (6/10)
If you’re hesitant on the full-game volatility, the First 5 play isolates Milwaukee’s edge where it’s clearest — starting pitching. Peralta versus an uncertain Cubs starter (possibly Boyd or a bullpen opener) heavily favors the Brewers.
Milwaukee ranks among the top five in MLB in first-5-inning run differential this year (+0.62 per game). Chicago is bottom third (+0.05). That difference matters in the postseason, where every first-run edge changes bullpen sequencing.
If Milwaukee scores first — and they have in 7 of their last 10 games — they tend to control pace. This is a safer hedge for bettors who like Milwaukee but don’t want to rely on bullpen variance or late-game fireworks.
Final Lean
If you’re looking to simplify: Brewers -1.5 (+145) is the premium value side, and Over 7.5 (+105) pairs well for a same-game parlay or correlated outcome (Brewers win, runs flow late).
Expect the Brewers to break through mid-game, hold a late lead, and advance behind strong starting pitching and bullpen stability.
Closing Thoughts: Edge, Risks, and Prediction
Playoff baseball has a way of exposing every flaw — and amplifying every strength. The Brewers and Cubs have spent three games proving they can both punch, but Milwaukee continues to look like the more complete, composed, and controllable team.
The Cubs deserve credit for clawing back in Game 3. Their bullpen was nails under pressure, and Wrigley will be loud again for Game 4. But the emotional boost from an elimination win often fades quickly when you run into a rested ace and a bullpen that doesn’t blink.
Milwaukee’s edge starts on the mound. Freddy Peralta has been in rhythm for months, and his strikeout-heavy approach neutralizes Chicago’s aggressiveness early in counts. When he’s commanding the top of the zone with that fastball, very few hitters can square him up. The Cubs’ lineup thrives on mistakes — and Peralta doesn’t give many.
Behind him, the Brewers’ bullpen remains the quiet killer in this series. Devin Williams, Abner Uribe, and Joel Payamps have been virtually unhittable in the late innings, combining for one earned run across their last 18 innings. That’s the type of reliability you need to close out a road playoff series.
Offensively, Milwaukee doesn’t overwhelm — but they execute. Jake Bauers’ power has shown up at the right times, and Christian Yelich’s veteran poise continues to steady the order. Add in emerging bats like Jackson Chourio and you get a lineup that can manufacture runs in multiple ways, not just by accident.
The Cubs’ best hope lies in early offense. They’ve jumped out fast in two games this series, but those bursts haven’t sustained. If they can’t crack Peralta early, they’ll have to grind through Milwaukee’s bullpen — and that’s not where you want to live in October.
From a betting standpoint, Milwaukee’s deeper pitching staff and consistent offensive sequencing create the more trustworthy profile. Chicago’s bullpen might keep it close for a few innings, but the Brewers’ patience and contact quality should win the middle frames. Expect Milwaukee to pull away late once the Cubs’ relief options thin out.
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Chicago Cubs 3
The Brewers advance behind a composed Peralta start, a shutdown bullpen, and an offense that keeps finding just enough big hits when it matters. Chicago fights — but the better, more balanced club moves on.
