Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Game 1 Prediction (September 30, 2025)
If you’re an East Coaster, then you know the storied rivalry between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Even if you’re not on the East Coast or a baseball fan, you’re probably aware of the adversarial nature of the two iconic clubs.
The two teams face off for the American League Wild Card Series in a best-of-three, and it’s all going down in the Bronx; the Yanks (94-68) get home field advantage because they finished ahead of the Sox (89-73) in the standings.
Heading out to the mound for the Sox is Garrett Crochet, and the Yanks are sending out Max Fried; both ace southpaws.
The winner moves on to the Divisional Round, where they’ll be up against the No. 1 seed in the AL, the Toronto Blue Jays.
What are the oddsmakers saying? Well, the consensus is the Yankees are favored on the moneyline at -134, and the total is 7 runs; it’s a pretty precise playoff number.
Will it be Boston or NY in Game 1? There’s a lot to get into, so keep reading for the game details, context, the latest betting odds and lines, market analysis, starting pitchers info, bullpen, injuries, trends, game dynamics, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox (89-73) at the New York Yankees (94-68)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 30, at 6:00 pm ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- How to Watch: Broadcasting nationally on ESPN
- Weather: hazy sunshine, about 77 °F (25 °C)
Game & Context Background
We already know about the bad blood between the Yanks and the Sox, but there’s more to this matchup than that!
Team Records
- Boston (89–73): The Red Sox outperformed projections after stabilizing their rotation midseason; their bullpen ranked 6th in the AL in ERA (3.81).
- Yankees (94–68): NY led the division behind a pitching staff that finished top-3 in the AL in strikeouts (1,482); they were 51–30 at Yankee Stadium.
Head-to-Head in 2025
Boston won the season series 9–4, including 5–2 at Yankee Stadium; the Red Sox pitchers held New York to a .225 batting average in head-to-head games, and Rafael Devers posted a .955 OPS against Yankee pitching.
Venue Dynamics
Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch (314 feet down the line) tilts the run environment toward left-handed power. In 2025, Yankee Stadium ranked 4th in MLB in home runs per game (2.81). That favors hitters like Anthony Rizzo and Rafael Devers, and it amplifies risk for lefty starters who miss location arm-side.
Playoff Format
The Wild Card is a best-of-three, and MLB’s data shows that 76% of teams that win Game 1 in a short series advance. Managers usually burn top relievers earlier in this setup so that bullpen usage patterns will be way more aggressive than during the regular season.
Betting Lines & Market Insights
Betting on Game 1? Here’s the latest odds and lines posted on FanDuel, but always check closer to the game as they can and do move!
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +114 | -134 |
Run Line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+168) |
Total | Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110) |
Implied Probabilities
- The Yankees’ win probability is ~56%
- The Red Sox’s win probability is ~47%
Line Takeaways
- Boston’s +1.5 runline? It comes with heavy juice, which signals that oddsmakers are projecting a one-run margin as the most common outcome.
- The total locked at 7 is a playoff number; sportsbooks are projecting that this game will be a lower-scoring affair between Fried and Crochet, and there’s very little room for error.
Market Trends
- The Yankees drew the first wave of public bets, which isn’t a surprise because of the brand and NY playing at home field.
- The pro bettors have shown a preference for the Under; it’s why both sides of 7 are priced with juice, keeping the number anchored without opening up value on either end.
Key Angles & Leaning Points
- Runline Value: Red Sox +1.5 is really expensive, but Boston played New York close all season and won the series 9–4, so it could be worth it.
- Total Play: Under 7 lines up with Fried and Crochet on the hill, although Yankee Stadium’s short porch means that home runs are always on the menu.
- First 5 Innings: Under in the first five is viable! Crochet posted a 2.59 ERA this year, and Fried has held lineups in check the first time through the order.
- Live Betting Angle: If Crochet exits before the sixth inning, the Yankees’ live number gains value. Boston’s bullpen has worn down in longer outings, and that gives the Yanks openings for late scoring.
Starting Pitchers & Matchup Analysis
Next up, we are gonna break down the two lefties starting for Boston and NY!
Garrett Crochet (Red Sox)
- Season Stats: He has a 2.59 ERA with a league-leading 255 strikeouts; his walk rate is higher than the league average, and that can raise pitch counts.
- Splits: Better on the road (2.25 ERA) than at Fenway (3.02 ERA).
- Vs. Yankees: There’s a limited sample, but his fastball/slider mix has generated whiffs against right-handed hitters who swing outside the zone.
- Risks: Elevated pitches at Yankee Stadium can leave him exposed against Judge, Stanton, and Torres.
Max Fried (Yankees)
- Season Stats: Fried has a 2.86 ERA across 30 starts; he has a strong ground-ball profile and low walk totals.
- Splits: He’s been good at Yankee Stadium; he’s held down hitting and home run rates.
- Vs. Red Sox Lineup: Devers is the main threat, and Boston’s right-handed players have a hard time with his curveball and changeup.
- X-Factor: Fried has a solid postseason track record, but Crochet is coming into this role for the first time.
Main Matchup
- Crochet’s strikeout arsenal vs. the Yankees’ power bats: If Crochet limits hard contact and keeps the ball in the park? Boston can stay in position.
- Fried’s ground-ball approach vs. Boston’s situational hitting: If Fried keeps forcing weak contact, he decreases Boston’s chances to build rallies.
Bullpen, Injuries & Depth
- Red Sox Pen: Boston’s bullpen finished with the second-best ERA in MLB during 2025. The group relies on strikeout arms in late innings, but control has occasionally forced them into longer counts. Garrett Whitlock and Chris Martin have been Boston’s most trusted setup options in close games, and Kenley Jansen anchors the ninth.
- Yankees Pen: New York addressed its relief corps at the trade deadline by acquiring David Bednar and Jason Adam, and that added depth to a unit that was inconsistent during the summer. Bednar is now their late-inning anchor; Jonathan Loáisiga and Clay Holmes give them some flexibility in the seventh and eighth. The upgrades gave the Yankees more stability than they had in the first half of the season.
Injury Watch
- Red Sox: Brennan Bernardino (lat strain), Jordan Hicks (shoulder tendinitis), Luis Guerrero (elbow, 60-day IL), Lucas Giolito (elbow, not on roster).
- Yankees: Ryan Yarbrough just came back from the IL and is available to play.
Lineup Strengths, Trends & Game Dynamics
Now let’s compare the lineups, trends, and game dynamics between the two clubs.
Boston Red Sox
- Rafael Devers is hands down the most impactful hitter; he has a .900+ OPS and a really good track record against Yankee pitching.
- Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela pressure pitchers with speed and on-base ability, and that creates base traffic ahead of the big bats.
- Boston has shown that it can manufacture runs with contact hitting and situational plays instead of just relying on power hitters.
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge is the heart and soul of NY’s lineup; he has 45 home runs and one of the highest OPS marks in the league.
- Rizzo’s postseason experience gives New York a veteran bat, and his swing does well in Yankee Stadium’s short porch even when it’s against left-handed starters.
- New York’s offense is prone to periods where it produces in bursts, but left-handed pitchers can contain it.
Trends
- Boston has been profitable when it’s listed as an underdog, covering spreads at one of the best rates in the AL.
- The Yankees went 51–30 at Yankee Stadium, but their splits against left-handed pitching are below league average.
Game Dynamics
- If Boston scores in the first two or three innings, New York will be pressed into making bullpen decisions earlier than they planned to.
- If Fried keeps Boston’s right-handers pounding the ball into the dirt, this will turn into a low-scoring game that boils down to bullpen execution.
Our Best Bets
The market is pretty tight for Game 1, so the value is in selective plays, not in heavy exposure. Here’s what we think are the best three bets and an optional prop!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox +1.5 (−205) | Boston won 9 of 13 head-to-head and 5 of 7 in the Bronx. Nine of those games finished within one run, which gives value to the runline despite the expensive price tag. | 7.5/10 |
Yankees −134 | Fried posted a 2.86 ERA and has kept the ball in the park at Yankee Stadium. And with Bednar anchoring the bullpen, New York has a late-game edge that Boston doesn’t have. | 6.5/10 |
Under 7 (−110) | Fried’s ground-ball rate suppresses extra-base hits, and Crochet averaged almost eight strikeouts per start. Both profiles limit run creation the first time through the order. | 7/10 |
Optional Prop to Consider: Crochet Over 7.5 Ks
Crochet averaged just under 8 per start this season, struck out 12 in his last outing against New York, and simulations show he has about a 53% chance of clearing this number. Over 8.5 only makes sense if sportsbooks post plus money (+130 or better).
Odd lines never stay still — they shift, swing, and reshape the game’s outlook. Track every change and catch the best value in real time at our recommended sports betting sites.
Game Plan & Key Leverage Spots
- 1st Inning: The Yankees were among the AL leaders in first-inning runs. Crochet has to attack the zone right away against Judge and Stanton to stop an early deficit.
- Middle Innings (4th–6th): Devers has been Boston’s most productive hitter against lefties, so how he does against Fried during these frames will determine if Boston can get runs on the board before New York goes to its relievers.
- Late Innings (7th–9th): Boston relievers ranked pretty high in walks issued compared to other playoff clubs. Extra traffic in these innings favors New York, which can go to Bednar and Holmes to close out games.
The Yankees Have the Edge, But the Sox Keep It in the Ballpark
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 3, Red Sox 2
Who are we backing? The Yankees! Now, we aren’t saying that the Red Sox can’t hang; they can, and they probably will. It’s gonna be a close game, but we think NY will take Game 1.
And since it’s the most important game for determining the series winner according to historical data, it’s a big deal for the Yankees.
This one should play out like the season meetings; it’ll be close, low scoring, and decided in the late innings!
- Fried’s postseason history is a much safer bet than Crochet’s debut.
- The total at 7 fits the profile of two lefties who limit hits in early innings.
- New York’s bullpen depth gives them more ways to win the game.
- Boston still has value on the +1.5 runline in what profiles as a one-run result.
Best Bets Recap
- Red Sox +1.5 (−205): 7.5/10
- Yankees −134: 6.5/10
- Under 7 (−110): 7/10
- Optional Prop: Crochet Over 7.5 Ks (~53% projected hit rate)
