Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Game 4 Preview & Prediction (9/28/25)

The Mercury are sooo close to the WNBA Finals; all they need to do is beat the Minnesota Lynx one more time.

Game 4 is happening in Phoenix’s home arena Sunday at 8 pm, but it probably won’t be as crazy as Game 3 was. What happened? Well, after Napheesa Collier went down with an ankle injury, her coach, Cheryl Reeve, was ejected with 24 seconds left in the game.

Reeve was assessed a second technical foul and ejected after this play: Alyssa Thomas stole the ball and executed a fast break layup, but she collided with Collier, who went down to the ground and then limped off in tears. The coach was upset and went OFF on the ref, so she was tossed out.

And while that was the top story, we can’t just ignore how well the Mercury is playing! The new big three (Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally) totaled 65 points on 23-of-43 shooting.

Phoenix is up 2-1, but don’t count out the Lynx just yet; they’re scrappy as heck and have the heart to extend it to a fifth game. Who do we think will win Game 4?

Keep reading for a breakdown of the game deets, series recap, betting odds, angles, and edges, team analysis, matchup dynamics, x-factors, and our picks for the three best bets!

Game Details

• Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury
• Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, at 8:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• How to Watch: ESPN

Series Recap & Context

Phoenix’s Game 3 win put them ahead 2–1 and put Minnesota in a must-win Game 4 position.

1. Series Status

• The Mercury are ahead in the best-of-five 2–1.
• The Lynx did even it up with a Game 2 win, but couldn’t get it done in Game 3.

2. Game 3 Highlights

• Mercury 84, Lynx 76
• Cheryl Reeve was thrown out in the 4th quarter after unleashing on the refs; her assistants had to physically hold her back. She hadn’t cooled off for her post-game presser, either.
• Napheesa Collier left the court with an ankle injury with 23.8 seconds left in the game. 

3. Storylines Driving Game 4

• Collier’s health: Collier is probably out for Game 4; Coach Reeve stated that it’s a possible left ankle fracture, although that has not been confirmed as of publication.
• Phoenix cleaned house and controlled the boards thanks to the trio of Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally.
• Officiating is a big talking point after Game 3’s technicals, free-throw margin, and Coach Reeve’s presser, calling them out.

Betting Odds & Lines

Want to put some money on Game 4? Here’s what ESPN BET Sportsbook has listed for the odds and lines: 

• Spread: Lynx +4.5 (–120), Mercury –4.5 (Even)
• Moneyline: Lynx +150, Mercury –175
• Total: Over 155.5 (–115), Under 155.5 (–105)

Betting Angles & Edges

• Spread: Phoenix –4.5 looks kinda short considering their recent play at home. Oddsmakers might be shading toward Minnesota backers who believe that the Lynx can rally even if Collier is out.
• Moneyline: The Mercury at –190 carries an implied win probability of around 65%. The price reflects their home court and current form, but it’s still pretty tight for straight plays and works better as a parlay piece.
• Total: The series has had different scoring profiles; Game 1 was in the 140s, and Games 2 and 3 landed higher. At 156.5, the Over makes sense if Phoenix dictates the pace, but the Under is in play if Collier can’t go and Minnesota relies heavily on Boston and McBride.

Props to Consider

• Kahleah Copper Points Over: Copper has been Phoenix’s best scorer this postseason, and she just dropped 20+ again in Game 3. Her usage makes the Over a really strong angle if the line is set in the high teens.
• Kayla McBride 3-Pointers Over: McBride is Minnesota’s most reliable perimeter shooter. With Collier possibly sidelined, she’ll be used even more to create spacing from deep.
• Napheesa Collier Rebounds/Points (status uncertain): Collier left Game 3 with an ankle injury and has not been confirmed for Game 4. If she does play, her rebounding line could have some value given Indiana’s need to match Phoenix on the glass. If she’s out? Don’t bet on any posted props!

Team-by-Team Breakdown

Okay, now let’s look at both teams’ strengths, weaknesses, and how they can win Game 4!

Minnesota Lynx

First up? The Minnesota Lynx:

Weaknesses

• Collier’s left ankle injury means that her availability is uncertain, and that takes away the Lynx’s most complete scorer if she cannot play.
• Minnesota has a lot of difficulty defending long, athletic wings, and that’s a problem against Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally.
• The bench has a hard time maintaining scoring balance when the starters sit, and that means long stretches of offensive droughts.

Keys to Win

• If Collier does suit up, the Lynx have to run sets through her early in the game to establish inside scoring.
• They need to pressure Phoenix’s guards into turnovers and convert them into transition baskets.
• Winning the rebounding battle is a non-negotiable, especially with Boston, Juhász, and Edwards having to protect the glass if Collier plays, but she’s limited.

Phoenix Mercury

And here’s the skinny on the Mercury:

Weaknesses

• The Mercury’s perimeter shooting can cool off for extended periods, and that shrinks the floor and makes their half-court sets easier to defend.
• If the starters foul, Phoenix’s rotation is shortened, which puts heavy minutes and even more responsibility on Copper, Thomas, and Sabally.

Keys to Win

• The Mercury has to establish Copper’s drives early on to draw help defenders and free up perimeter looks.
• Running offense through Thomas keeps the ball moving and forces Minnesota to defend for the full shot clock.
• Defense! Phoenix has to stay tight on McBride at the arc and force Minnesota’s secondary scorers to take the harder shots.

Matchup Dynamics & X-Factors

How do the matchup dynamics factor in, and what are some x-factors? The following: 

The Lynx

• Collier’s ankle status dictates Minnesota’s entire approach to this game. If she’s out? The Lynx are left without their best inside scoring option and most reliable rebounder.
• Kayla McBride’s perimeter shooting has to be consistent in order to counter Phoenix’s athletic wings.
• Minnesota has to secure defensive boards to stop Phoenix from piling up second-chance buckets.

The Mercury

• Kahleah Copper’s rim pressure bends defenses and sets up open looks for Sabally and Thomas.
• Alyssa Thomas can exploit mismatches with her playmaking if the Lynx send in reinforcements.
• If Phoenix controls the rebounding battle, it can keep Minnesota in half-court possessions and control the game’s tempo.

X-Factors

• Bridget Carleton has to hit spot-up threes to stop Phoenix from sagging off her and clogging the paint against Boston.
• Sami Whitcomb’s minutes are really valuable if she can knock down corner threes and force Minnesota to respect the second unit.
• Early fouls on Copper or McBride would totally change the wing matchups and force coaches to adjust rotations earlier than they planned to.

Our Best Bets

For our best bet picks, we have spread, total, and a player prop!

Risk Factors & Alternate Scenarios

• If Napheesa Collier logs 35+ minutes at full strength, and that’s a big if, Minnesota’s offense and rebounding outlook completely changes. It’ll give them way more potential than the current spread implies.
• If Phoenix misses perimeter looks and the starters pick up fouls, Minnesota can change the game by forcing deeper bench minutes.
• The total could dip Under if both teams rely on half-court sets and officials allow physical play without sending players to the line.

Mercury’s Way to Win at Home

We are going with Phoenix to win Game 4, and we don’t say this lightly. Copper, Thomas, and Sabally give the Mercury way more scoring options, and playing at home puts them in a good position to finish the job and make it to the WNBA Finals. 

But Collier is the biggest variable here; if she even plays, she will probably be limited, and that means Minnesota loses its best interior player and spacing; the Lynx won’t have enough inside presence to keep up with the Mercury.

Our Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 84 – Minnesota Lynx 77

Best Bets Recap

• Mercury –4.5 (7.5/10)
• Over 155.5 (6/10)
• Copper Points Over (6.5/10)

We recommend keeping your bets in the 1–2 unit range, given the uncertainty around Collier’s health and how much foul calls have influenced this series!