Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Preview & Prediction (September 23, 2025)

The Minnesota Lynx once again proved in Game 1 why they’re one of the toughest playoff teams in the league. While the game ended 89:62 in their favor, the Phoenix Mercury showed enough fight in the first half,  suggesting that this series is far from over.

It’s 1-0 against the Phoenix Mercury, leaving them with a much higher stake in this game. They’ll have to win if they want to avoid going home down 0-2. 

We will explore why Lynx holds the edge and also where Phoenix has hope for a comeback. Then, we will give you our best value bets for Game 2.

Game Details

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (27-17) vs. Minnesota Lynx (34-10): Game 2 of the  WNBA Semifinals
• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, at 7:30 pm ET
• Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• How to Watch: ESPN, WNBA League Pass

Game 1 Recap & Takeaways

Final Score: Lynx 82 – Mercury 69

• First Half: The Phoenix Mercury started strong. It pounded the pair and kept it close, leaving Lynx to struggle with turnovers and slow perimeter defense early in the game.
• Second Half: Lynx found stability and locked down defensively. This approach forced Phoenix into contested jumpers while Lynx controlled the boards. It also allowed Lynx to outscore Phoenix 44-28 after halftime.

Key Performers

• Courtnery Williams (23 pts): She was efficient in shooting and also led the momentum swing in the game. 
• Kayla McBride: 21 pts, 4 threes, and big second-half buckets.
• Napheesa Collier: 18 pts, 9 rebs, defensive anchor.
• Phoenix bright spots: Kahleah Copper’s slashing was impressive. We were also impressed by Alyssa Thomas’s inside scoring, but the performance lacked perimeter shooting.

Adjustment Highlight

The Lynx used more double teams in the post and pushed the pace in transition. This forced Phoenix to become tired late.

Mercury’s Issue

Mercury’s team went ice cold from beyond the arc, hitting only 2 threes after halftime. The team’s fatigue and lack of bench depth showed in the match, a weakness the Minnesota Lynx will likely exploit in the second game.

Key Stats & Betting Trends

• The Lynx are 12-3 at home this season, making them one of the WNBA’s strongest home teams.
• Phoenix is 5-11 on the road. The team is historically weaker outside its home court.
• Lynx has covered the spread in 7 of its last 9 games, making them the home favorite in this game.
• Mercury is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road playoff games.
• Game 1 had a total of 151 points, which went well under the current line of 158.5.
• Lynx’s defense has repeatedly held down opponents to 69.8 PPG over its last five games. As such, the team trends toward unders.
• Phoenix has failed to score above 95 points in its last 6 matchups with Minnesota.

Matchups & Players to Watch

• Mercury Guards: Diana Taurasi or Sophie Cunningham will have to step up from three to open spacing in this game, although that is still in question. On the other end, Minnesota will continue collapsing on Copper and Thomas without perimeter threats.
• Napheesa Collier: She brings an elite two-way presence and will be crucial in scoring and shutting down Phoenix’s inside game.
• Kayla McBride vs. Mercury wings: Mercury will have trouble on their hands and won’t be able to trade buckets if McBride gets hot again from deep.
• Courtney Williams vs. Mercury backcourt: Williams controlled the tempo in Game 1 and will push to do so again in this game. As such, Phoenix will have to disrupt her rhythm to limit the damage from her end.
• Bench units: Minnesota’s role players gave the team a big lift in Game 1. On the other hand, Phoenix’s bench will have to find scoring to avoid another second-half fade.

Injury/Availability Notes

• Minnesota will have to play without DiJonai Carrington. However, the team’s bench rotation held strong in the first game and should hold again in this game.
• The core players at Phoenix are healthy, but the team still has depth concerns. We’ve also seen fatigue in the first game from the team’s over-reliance on starters.
• We’ve not received any new major injuries. Nevertheless, stamina and foul trouble will be critical factors in this game.

Odds & Betting Context

These latest odds are provided by ESPN BET:

• Compared to Game 1: The spread is slightly wider for Game 2, reflecting confidence in Minnesota after the team’s dominant finish. On the other hand, the total remains nearly unchanged despite Game 1’s under.

Predictions & Best Bets

Key Betting Angles & Extra Tips

Lynx has dominated 3Q in recent games. As such, you should watch halftime adjustments before betting. A live bet on Lynx at half could be smart if Phoenix starts hot again.

Phoenix, on the other hand, will have to do the following if it wants to win:

• Hit at least 8-10 threes
• Avoid foul trouble for Copper and Thomas
• Get a bench contribution of at least 15-20 points

If the Phoenix team fails in any two of these three areas, it will likely not recover, leaving Lynx with the win.

Mercury Fighting Uphill Battle in Game 2

Our Final Score Prediction

• Projected Final Score: Lynx 85 – Mercury 72
• This scoreline projects a Lynx cover and under 159.5

We expect Phoenix to be aggressive and push to avoid another second-half collapse in this game. However, the Lynx defense and depth are solid enough for the team to again control the tempo after halftime.

Lynx dominated the second half of Game 1, showing superior depth and defense. Mercury, on the other hand, shows limited upset potential because of their lack of perimeter shooting.

Our best bets are 

• Lynx -7.5: High confidence
• Under 159.5: Moderate-High confidence
• First Half: Mercury +3.5: Moderate
• Napheesa Collier Over Rebounds (8.5-9.5 range): Moderate