Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction & Betting Picks (September 10, 2025)
On Wednesday night at 7 pm ET, the Sun will host the Dream at Connecticut’s Mohegan Sun Arena for one of the final regular-season WNBA games.
- The Atlanta Dream have come into their own in their regular-season finale; they are playing some of their best basketball of the year, have a spot in the playoffs, and want to keep that energy in the postseason.
- As for Connecticut? They didn’t make it to the playoffs after a rough season, and they’ll use this game to give the roster one last run in front of their fans.
Sportsbooks have set the total in the high 150s, and the recent head-to-heads back this up; Atlanta’s last two wins over Connecticut both cleared 160 points. Because the Dream are pushing the pace and the Sun are off their game defensively, the Over will get some attention, but late-season rotations could throw a wrench into how this one plays out.
Keep reading for the latest betting odds, team form and momentum, injuries, betting analytics and trends, and what we think are the three best bets!
Game Details & Context
- Matchup: The Atlanta Dream (29–14, 13–8 on the road) are on their way to Mohegan Sun Arena to face the Connecticut Sun (11–32, 7–14 at home).
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 10, at 7:00 pm ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, CT
- How to Watch: ESPN+ and WNBA League Pass.
- Season Series: Atlanta is up 3–1 in the series; they won 93–76 on September 1 and 87–62 on September 8; they controlled the game from start to end.
- What’s at Stake: The Dream is already in the playoffs, but is still playing for better positioning and wants to kill it in the postseason. The Sun are out of contention, so they’re concentrating on giving the younger players minutes and experimenting with lineups.
Betting Odds Snapshot
Here’s how FanDuel has priced the odds and lines for the Dream vs. the Sun:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Dream | -14.5 (-108) | -1400 | Over 157.5 (-112) |
Sun | +14.5 (-112) | +760 | Under 157.5 (-108) |
Form & Momentum
Atlanta is finishing up the regular season strong; they’ve been winning by big margins and getting it done on both ends of the floor. Connecticut has been moving in the other direction; they’ve lost games and have fallen short of being competitive against playoff-level opponents.
Atlanta Dream
- The Dream has won five games in a row.
- Their last three victories were decided by margins of +15, +25, and +31.
- They’ve scored 78 or more points in all of their last four games.
- Their defense has held three of those four opponents to less than 70 points.
Connecticut Sun
- The Sun has lost seven of its last nine games.
- They have been held under 70 points in four of their last six outings.
- Opponents have shot better than 45 percent from the field during that span.
- They have underperformed badly against other playoff-bound teams, including Atlanta.
Injury Watch
Atlanta is pretty much at full strength, and Connecticut is dealing with some absences that will directly affect both depth and lineup balance.
Atlanta Dream
- Taylor Thierry is out, which trims the bench but will not impact the starting unit.
Connecticut Sun
- Leila Lacan is listed as a game-time decision, and her ball-handling will be sorely missed if she can’t play.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa is ruled out, and that leaves the Sun lacking in the frontcourt and at a disadvantage on the glass.
- Bria Hartley is out for the season, which takes away a vet guard who could’ve steadied the rotation.
Overall Impact
Atlanta doesn’t have much to worry about on the injury front, but the Sun are missing multiple spots, and that’s no bueno when you’re up against one of the WNBA’s hottest teams.
Analytics & Trends
The numbers back up why Atlanta is such a heavy favorite here! Look below for a comparison of the two teams and what the recent betting patterns say.
Win Probability (via ESPN Analytics): Dream 79.6% | Sun 20.4%
Team Averages
| Category | Dream | Sun | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
PPG | 84.3 | 75.9 | Dream |
Points Allowed | 76.9 | 85.9 | Dream |
FG% | 44.1% | 41.3% | Dream |
Rebounds | 36.7 | 31.8 | Dream |
Assists | 21.3 | 17.5 | Dream |
Trend Notes
- The Dream have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
- The Sun is only 3–7 ATS over the same span.
- Atlanta games have finished Under the total in 6 of their last 8.
Key Betting Themes & Angles
The line on this one is big for a good reason, but there are still a few ways to go at it!
Atlanta has beaten Connecticut by 25 and 31 in their last two games. The Sun has had a lot of trouble staying within single digits against top teams, and that makes another cover for the Dream realistic.
Connecticut’s offense has been flat, which usually drags games toward the Under. Atlanta’s scoring can push it the other direction, but if this turns into another blowout, the fourth quarter could see less points once the benches get more minutes.
The Dream sits at –1400, which offers very little on its own. This is only worth considering as part of a parlay.
Atlanta is still locked in with the postseason right around the corner, and Connecticut is short-handed and closing out what’s been a disappointing campaign for them.
Our Best Bets
Okay, so between the spread, the total, and player props? We’ve zeroed in on what look to be the strongest betting options!
Best Bet #1: Atlanta Dream –14.5 (–108)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It? (with ATS Trends)
- Atlanta leads the league ATS with a 27–15–1 record (67.5%).
- They’ve gone 5–0 ATS in their last five; they covered with room to spare.
- In their last two meetings with Connecticut, they won by 25 and 31 points, both covered by double digits.
- The Sun is missing depth, and Atlanta is still gunning for playoff placement, which gives the Dream a situational edge.
Risk to Consider: A backdoor cover is possible if Atlanta rotates heavily in the 4th quarter.
Best Bet #2: Under 157.5 (–108)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It? (with O/U Trends)
- Connecticut has failed to reach 70 points in 4 of its last 6 games.
- Atlanta has held 3 of its last 4 opponents below 70 points.
- In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, only 2 games have gone Over.
- Sun Overs: 4 of their last 6, but not against Atlanta’s defense.
- Dream Overs: 60% in their last 5, but those were against weaker defensive teams; the totals trend lower vs. the Sun.
Risks to Consider: If Atlanta’s offense erupts early in the game, the total could climb. Garbage-time points in a blowout could also push it higher!
Longshot Leans: Dream Player Props
Here are two props we’re not too excited about, but they have value if they hit!
- Rhyne Howard Over Points
- Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
- Since Connecticut is short on perimeter defenders, Howard should see more opportunities.
- Atlanta Rebounding Overs (Parker / Billings)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
- With Nelson-Ododa sitting out, Atlanta should control the glass, but a blowout risk could limit minutes.
Want to improve your betting results? Check out our expert betting strategies—and explore the top-rated sportsbooks where you can put them into action!
Will it Be Another One-Sided Showdown in Uncasville?
Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Dream 84, Connecticut Sun 66
The Dream cover, the total stays Under, and Atlanta finished the regular season on a high note.
We’re going with Atlanta to win, as they are the obvious choice in this matchup. The Dream have covered in back-to-back wins over Connecticut by double digits, and even if that wasn’t true, this one still goes their way. Why? Because the Sun is short on scoring depth and Atlanta has been on fire lately, they are in playoff form, so this’ll be over before it even starts.
Here’s a quick betting angle snapshot:
- The Dream –14.5 is the top play ★★★★☆ (4/5)
- The Under 157.5 looks playable if Connecticut can’t reach the mid-70s ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
- The Moneyline offers no standalone value
- Injuries and recent results lean toward Atlanta
Best Bets Recap
- Atlanta Dream –14.5 (–108): ★★★★☆ (4/5)
- Under 157.5 (–108): ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
- Longshot Lean: Rhyne Howard Over Points: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
- Longshot Lean: Atlanta Rebounding Overs (Parker / Billings): ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
