Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Preview & Prediction (September 2, 2025)
At 10 pm on Tuesday night, the Phoenix Mercury will welcome the Indiana Fever to their home floor. The stakes are pretty high; it’s late in the season, and both squads have their eyes on the playoff prize.
The Fever is still sans Caitlin Clark, and that means her teammates need to bring it again. And it’ll be a challenge against Kahleah Copper, who scored 22 points in the Mercury’s last game against the New York Liberty.
Who do we have for this one? The market is leaning toward Phoenix, but we can’t count Indiana out until the last buzzer!
Keep scrolling for all the info about this game; we’ve got playoff standings, all of the stats, the latest betting odds, trends, and our picks for the five (yes, FIVE) best bets!
Game Details & Stakes
- Matchup: Indiana Fever (21-19) vs. Phoenix Mercury (25-14)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 2, at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ
- How to Watch: NBA TV
- TV & Streaming in the U.S.: Available on NBA TV, local Phoenix broadcast (KTVK / KPHE), and WNBA League Pass for out-of-market access (with local blackout restrictions); Streaming on Prime Video, Sling TV, YouTube TV, Fubo, and DIRECTV Stream carry national broadcasts; if you can’t stream, you can tune in to the Fever’s radio feed via 93.5 / 107.5 The Fan.
Playoff Picture
- Phoenix (25–14): The Mercury are safe in the postseason field, but now they’re jockeying for a top-4 seed and home-court leverage.
- Indiana (21–19): The Fever are in the middle tier of the standings, and they need every win so they don’t fall into the play-in bracket.
Home/Road Splits
- Mercury: Phoenix is 14–6 at Footprint Center, and it’s where they’ve been one of the hardest teams to beat all season.
- Fever: Indiana is 10–10 away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse; they haven’t established any kind of consistency when they’re on the road.
Recent Form
- Phoenix: They beat New York 80–63 in their last game. Copper nailed 22, and the defense held the Liberty under 70.
- Indiana: Split their last two; they outlasted the Sparks, then lost one to Golden State in a super physical matchup.
Keys to the Game
What are the most important factors in this one? A big one is if Indiana can generate enough offense without Caitlin Clark and if Phoenix can feed the ball to Kahleah Copper at home!
Indiana’s Path to Winning
- Give the ball to Aliyah Boston inside and let her WORK! If she draws extra defenders, it creates open looks for Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith.
- Indiana needs perimeter shots to fall. If Mitchell and Smith aren’t hitting from deep? Phoenix will pack the paint and make Boston’s job that much harder.
Phoenix’s Edge
- Copper is in her element as a scorer; if she keeps attacking, Indiana doesn’t have much of a reliable counter.
- Taurasi’s shooting and passing still shift defensive attention, especially in half-court sets.
- The Mercury rebound better on the defensive end, and that limits the second-chance buckets Indiana relies on.
Injury Factor
- Caitlin Clark is still out, and that leaves Indiana without its best perimeter creator and outside shooter. Boston and Mitchell will have to pick up the slack again.
- As of right now, Phoenix has no major absences, which gives them the freedom to run their full rotation.
Betting Odds Overview
Ready to place your bets? Here’s what ESPN BET has for the current odds and lines:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Fever | +5.5 (-110) | +195 | Over 166.5 (-105) |
Mercury | -5.5 (-110) | -230 | Under 166.5 (-115) |
Statistical Insights & Trends
If you are gonna bet on this game, the numbers tell us where both teams stand in terms of scoring pace, ATS history, and how they’ve fared against each other.
- Indiana games have been running high; they’ve averaged around 167 points in their last five.
- Phoenix games lean lower; it’s closer to 162 combined points, which pulls the total into that mid-160s range.
- The Fever are a little under water at 19–21 ATS; they aren’t a team that’s been cashing tickets left and right.
- Phoenix has been really strong at home; they’ve covered over half of their games at the Footprint Center.
- The Mercury have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
- Indiana has had a bad time in Phoenix; they’ve given up about 80 points in their last three trips.
Our Best Bets
1. Spread: Indiana Fever +5.5
Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Indiana has been really competitive on the road (10–10) even without Caitlin Clark; they usually keep games within single digits.
- Phoenix has failed to cover in three of its last five wins when laying bigger numbers.
- Aliyah Boston’s presence inside helps offset Phoenix’s rebounding strength, which keeps games from getting away from them.
- Handicap: This one should stay close into the fourth quarter, making +6.5 a live number if Indiana’s wings knock down open shots!
2. Total: Under 166.5
Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Late-season games with playoff implications tend to favor half-court play over transition.
- Phoenix held New York to 63 points last game, and Indiana’s offense doesn’t stretch defenses very well without Clark.
- Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone Under.
- Handicap: Expect both sides to hover in the low to mid-70s, which will keep the total below the posted line.
3. Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury –230
Our Confidence Level: 8/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Phoenix has been really reliable at home (14–6); it has one of the best marks in the league.
- Indiana hasn’t consistently finished games on the road against stronger competition.
- The price is pretty steep, but it works as a parlay piece.
- Handicap: Phoenix likely takes this one outright, even if the spread is less certain.
4. Player Prop: Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 Points
Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Boston has carried most of the load with Clark still being sidelined; she’s averaging close to 17–18 PPG of late.
- Phoenix can give up touches around the rim when its opponents get in post position.
- Handicap: If Indiana covers? It’ll be because Boston sets up shop early in the paint.
5. Player Prop: Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 Points
Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Copper scored 22 against New York in her last outing and is far and away Phoenix’s most dependable scorer.
- Indiana has had some trouble containing perimeter stars, and Copper should see 15+ shot attempts here.
- Handicap: If Phoenix builds a lead, it will likely be from Copper’s scoring output.
Odds can shift quickly as the Fever take on the Mercury, so be sure to check the latest lines before betting. For the best value, explore our top-rated sports betting sites.
Playoff Pressure Keeps This One Close
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82 – Indiana Fever 76
Betting Takeaway: Phoenix to win outright, Indiana +6.5 is playable, and the Under has some merit if this turns into a Boston-heavy game!
We are going with Phoenix for this game. Why? Because they’ve protected home court all season long and have a full and healthier roster going into this one.
Sure, Indiana can still make it competitive, but without Caitlin Clark, they just don’t have the same spacing or shot creation on the perimeter. That usually means more of the offense has to funnel through Aliyah Boston, which slows down possessions and lowers the overall scoring pace.
Best Bets Recap
- Fever +5.5: 6/10
- Under 166.5: 7/10
- Mercury ML: 8/10
- Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 Pts: 6/10
- Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 Pts: 7/10
