New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Preview & Prediction (August 21, 2025)
In the last official preseason game, two East Coast teams will face off on the gridiron on Thursday night at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
That’s the home turf of the New York Giants (we know, it makes no sense their stadium is in NJ), who host the New England Patriots.
Kickoff is at 8 pm ET, and positions (aka jobs) are in jeopardy; the next roster deadline is on Tuesday. Even though preseason games aren’t counted toward the regular NFL season stats, they definitely matter for who will play and who’ll get the ax.
Both are undefeated so far (2-0), and this is the penultimate warm-up game before the Week 4 starters rest. The coaches are keeping playbooks close to their vests, but there are some clues we can get from the game as well as some betting value.
Keep reading to see the game overview, the latest betting odds, lines, and trends, main matchups, the x-factors, how the game could flow, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details & Stakes
- Matchup: New England Patriots (2-0) vs. New York Giants (2-0)
- Game Details: Thursday, August 21, at 8:00 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How To Watch: Streaming on Prime Video nationally; WCVB‑5 in Boston, WNBC‑4 in New York
- Team Records: Both are 2–0 in preseason games
Game Notes
- The Patriots are using this game to test out their backup quarterback depth after really good outings from Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham in the first two preseason games.
- The Giants are expected to give rookie Jaxson Dart another look after he impressed everyone with his accurate passing and mobility in Weeks 1 and 2.
- Both teams are focusing on roster battles at WR4–WR6 and in the running back rotation, which are the areas that usually drive second-half scoring and make yardage props worth tracking.
Betting Odds
Feeling like you want to put down some money on this game? ESPN BET has these listed as the current odds:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | +6.5 (-110) | +250 | Over 37.5 (-115) |
Giants | -6.5 (-110) | -300 | Under 37.5 (-105) |
Insights
- Spread at –6.5 suggests books see a clear advantage for the Giants, and that could be due to QB confidence, depth, or home-field edge.
- The total at 37.5 matches up with the usual preseason norms under the simplified scoring and rotating units.
- The Moneyline is leaning Giants –280, which makes them the safer bet if you’re leaning the outcome over margin, but the Patriots at +230? This is a good value play if you’re backing a close game upset!
Betting Trends to Watch
When you look back at recent preseasons, both teams show patterns against the spread and on totals that give us some solid context for Thursday night’s game!
Team Trends (Preseason ATS & Totals)
How have New England and New York fared in their August games? Look below for scoring trends and betting results.
New England Patriots
- They’ve covered in 5 of their last 6 preseason games.
- 4–2 to the Over across those games.
- The Patriots have averaged 22.3 points per preseason game since 2023.
- The second halves have been the most productive; Zappe and Cunningham have been extending plays.
New York Giants
- The Giants have split their last 6 preseason games ATS (3–3).
- 4–2 to the Over in their last 6 at home.
- Their last 5 preseason outings have averaged 41.6 total points.
- Opened with points on the first drive in 3 of the past 4 preseason games.
- The combined preseason scoring average for the Giants and Patriots in 2025 sits at 48.5 points per game.
- The Over has hit in 6 of the last 8 combined preseason games between New England and New York.
- The first-half Overs are 4–1 during their preseason games this year.
- The opening total of 36.5 has been bet up to 37.5–38.5 at most sportsbooks; early money has clearly leaned to the Over.
- The spread opened Giants –3.5 and has gone as high as –6.5, which signals the expectations around quarterback rotations and depth chart usage.
- Since 2022, home teams in Week 3 of the preseason have covered the spread 61% of the time, and the trend has been stronger when the line is set at less than a touchdown.
- Preseason totals set below 39 points have gone Over 58% of the time.
Main Matchups, X-Factors & Game Flow Predictions
Neither coach will use this game as a showcase for their starters; it’s a proving ground for quarterbacks who are fighting for snaps, receivers battling for roster spots, and defensive units trying to hold it together once the rotations start. How those depth players perform will affect both the scoring pace and who is in control after halftime!
Quarterback Outlook
- Bailey Zappe (Patriots) will handle the pocket snaps, and Malik Cunningham will get designed runs and broken-play chances. That combo usually makes the second half messy for opposing defenses once the game slows down and backups are left on the field.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants) is set to start, and he’s demonstrated touch on intermediate throws and can get out of bad spots when protection isn’t there. Tommy DeVito should follow, which gives the Giants a more solid but less dynamic look.
Coaching Strategy
- Belichick: Coach B uses Week 3 as a sorting ground; he’ll keep the playbook basic and use the game to decide which bottom-roster players stick. Don’t expect to see much of Mac Jones or the main starters.
- Daboll: He likes to open preseason games with some extra tempo. New York has scored early in three of their last four, and it’s likely to deploy another fast start before pulling the vets. That makes the first-half total worth a look!
Positional Spotlight
- Wide Receivers: Both teams are testing out their fringe speed options and slot receivers. Against second- and third-string corners, those matchups can turn into chunk plays or coverage busts that extend drives.
- Defensive Depth: New England’s second unit has held up really well and has been able to limit explosive plays. The Giants’ reserve corners have had a hard time staying disciplined, and that gives the Patriots’ backups a chance to finish drives once the starters are rotated out.
Our Best Bets
We’ve got pigskin picks! Look below for the four angles that we feel are the best bets for this one:
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Over 37.5 | 8/10 | Both teams have been scoring, and defensive calls will stay basic. Recent preseason games have leaned higher on totals. |
Giants –3.5 (avoid –6.5) | 6.5/10 | At –3.5 to –4.5, New York’s QB rotation and home field are enough to back them. At –6.5? This line feels a little stretched. |
First Half | Total | 7/10 | With starters and primary backups expected to play early, the opening half should feature more offense than the second. |
Austin Hooper Over Receptions | Theo Johnson Over Receptions | 6/10 | Hooper has gone Over in 10 of his last 11, Johnson in 7 straight; both are reliable short-yardage targets in these offenses. |
Make sure to check the latest odds and live betting markets before kickoff, and explore our list of top-rated online betting sites for the best value.
Preseason Picks: Don’t Sleep on the Overs!
Both teams come into this game 2–0, and this game will concentrate on depth evaluations instead of on extended starter runs. And that gives us a better read on who will actually decide the outcome: it’s quarterbacks like Zappe, Cunningham, and Dart, and some receivers who are trying to secure their spots on the roster.
The Over 37.5 is still the best angle. Why? Because defenses will stick to simple calls, that leaves room for blown coverages and short fields once the rotations start. Giants –3.5 is worth a look if you can get that number, but anything past –6 erases the value.
Preseason results can hinge on a one small mistake, like a turnover, a coverage bust, or a QB substitution. That’s why bet sizing is so important! Keep the action smaller than you would in a regular-season game, and take advantage of live betting if the early flow of the game doesn’t match up to what you thought it would be.
Best Bets Recap
- Over 37.5 (8/10)
- Giants –3.5 (6.5/10)
- First Half Over 18.5 (7/10)
- Hooper or Johnson Reception Props (6/10)
Final Score Prediction: Giants 24, Patriots 20
The opening quarters will be all about the offense, and once the starters sit, the second half will be the backups coming onto the field; they are fighting to make the team. A few explosive plays from the receivers who’re buried on the depth chart could be what drives this game past the posted number!
