Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Preview & Prediction (August 11, 2025)

It’s baseball season, so you know what that means. That’s right, it’s another three-game series!
Who’s on deck for this one? The Minnesota Twins are headed to the Bronx to play the NY Yankees. It’s Midwest vs. East Coast, and there are a lot of moving parts.
Minnesota had a ton of roster changes, so they’re in reassembly mode. And New York brought in some mid-season backup; plus, they’ve got Aaron Judge, who’s about to make home run history again after his 42nd homer of the season on Sunday.
Want to know what we think? Keep reading to find out who’s pitching, the latest betting odds and lines, team form, and our picks for the best bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins (56-61) vs. New York Yankees (62-56)
- Date & Time: Monday, August 11, at 7:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Weather Forecast: Hot and hazy with poor air quality, around 72°F at first pitch.
- Starting Pitchers: Twins, Zebby Matthews (3-3, 5.17 ERA, 1.38 WHIP); Yankees, Will Warren (6-5, 4.44 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)
- How to Watch: MLB.TV, YES Network, and TWINS.TV
Betting Odds Snapshot
Thinking about putting some money on this game? We’ve got the latest betting odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:
Bet Type | Twins | Yankees |
---|---|---|
Moneyline | +147 | -180 |
Run Line | +1.5 (-139) | -1.5 (+114) |
Total | Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-119) |
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Zebby Matthews vs. Will Warren
Who’s startin’ for the Twins? That would be Zebby Matthews. Heading out to the hill for the Yankees is Will Warren.

Zebby Matthews – Twins
- This is his first career outing at Yankee Stadium, and that’s a tall order for a rookie.
- He’s built a solid rep in the minors for his precise command.
- MLB line: 5.17 ERA, 1.38 WHIP across ~38 innings.
- Allows 1.3 HR/9, and that’s a risky stat against a Yankees lineup with several home run threats.
- Limited history vs. AL East opponents; his challenge will be navigating the order multiple times without giving up extra scoring chances.

Will Warren – Yankees
- Warren has a record of 6–5 with a 4.44 ERA over ~115 innings.
- He generates a ground-ball rate above 50%, and that’s a good fit against a Minnesota lineup that’s short on home run production.
- His performance at Yankee Stadium is better than on the road; he’s got an improved ERA and WHIP at home.
- His walk rate of 3.5 BB/9 can allow extra baserunners, and that creates possible openings for the Twins’ offense.
Betting Impact
- The Yankees’ lineup gets a favorable matchup against a rookie with a limited MLB track record and a tendency to give up home runs, and this points toward the Over and Yankees –1.5.
- Warren’s ground-ball profile supports a Yankees moneyline angle; Minnesota is missing several regular contributors.
- Both starters have shown they can be hit in the opening frames, which makes 1st 5 Over a decent option.
Team Form & Context
Minnesota is heading to the Bronx as a different team after the trade deadline, and New York is trying to get some traction for a postseason run.

Minnesota Twins
- The deadline moves sent out Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, Willi Castro, and others, which signals Minnesota is prepping for the future.
- Their offense has lagged all year; the Twins rank in the lower third of the league in average, on-base percentage, and runs scored.
- Pitching staff was a stabilizing factor in the first half, although the bullpen’s workload has increased since the roster changes.

New York Yankees
- NY has bolstered the relief staff with David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and other acquisitions to lock down late innings.
- Top-tier scoring club: 3rd in MLB in total runs (595), league leader in home runs (183), and near the top in extra-base hit production.
- Aaron Judge is pacing the majors in batting average (.339), OPS (1.144), and runs scored (92).
- Their August results have been up and down, but the roster still has the offensive strength to change the course of a playoff race.
Betting Angles to Watch
- Home in the Bronx: The Yankees have been really hard to knock off at their own park, and the bullpen upgrades give them more options to close games out.
- Shaken-up Twins lineup: Moving Correa, Duran, Castro, and others left holes in the order, and it’s definitely showing in how the offense comes together.
- Mismatch at the plate: New York has one of the most dangerous hitting groups in the league against a Minnesota starter who hasn’t faced lineups of this caliber.
- Runs on the board: The Over has cashed in 54 Yankees games and 50 Twins games this year; both clubs are used to playing in high-scoring spots.
Our Best Bets
We’re looking at three solid angles for this game, plus a bonus that’s worth consideration! Here are our best bets:
1. Over 9 Total Runs
Our Confidence Level: High
Why Do We Like It?
- The Yankees rank top-3 in MLB for home runs and extra-base hit rate, with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gleyber Torres all producing.
- Zebby Matthews’ 1.3 HR/9 rate and short MLB résumé is a really challenging assignment against a lineup that capitalizes when pitchers miss location.
- New York’s bullpen has gotten better, but middle relief is still a spot where runs can still come through.
- Minnesota’s offense lost impact hitters after the deadline, but still has Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, and they’re more than capable of generating runs.
- The Over has hit in 54 Yankees games and 50 Twins games this season.
2. Yankees –1.5 (Run Line)
Our Confidence Level: Medium
Why Do We Like It?
- NY has a clear advantage on both at the plate and on the mound.
- Will Warren’s home numbers and ground-ball rate match up well against a Minnesota offense that finds it hard to get consecutive hits.
- If New York builds an early lead? Minnesota’s bullpen depth post-deadline could be exposed in the later innings.
- Multi-run margin is within reach if the Yankees connect in hitters’ counts.
3. Yankees Moneyline
Our Confidence Level: Medium-High
Why Do We Like It?
- The Yanks have a better lineup, home-field advantage, and starting pitching matchup.
- Even if it’s a close game, the Yankees’ late-inning arms (Bednar, Doval) can hold it down.
- This angle covers the one-run win scenario that would miss on the run line.
Bonus Angle – 1st 5 Innings Over
- Since this is Matthews’ first appearance in the Bronx, when it’s paired with New York’s knack for putting runs up in the opening frames? That makes this one worth targeting.
- It centers on the starters, which removes bullpen performance from the equation.
Closing Time at Yankee Stadium
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 7, Twins 4
We are backing the Yankees for the opener of the series, and the Over makes the most sense! And it’s not just because of the season-long totals data, but because the matchup sets up for action in the first few innings.
Matthews has never been up against a team like NY or pitched at Yankee Stadium, and New York’s lineup is built to make him work for every out. Even if the scoring does slow down in the middle innings, both bullpens have had innings get away from them, and that keeps the late offense in play.
The post-deadline roster shuffle didn’t do any favors for Minnesota in the short term, as it left them without some of their best hitters, and the pitching staff is being asked to cover more than it did earlier in the season. That’s an uphill battle against a Yankees team that can get traffic on the bases from the first inning.
Best Bets Recap
- Over 9 Total Runs: High confidence
- Yankees –1.5 (Run Line): Medium confidence
- Yankees Moneyline: Medium-High confidence
- Bonus: 1st 5 Innings Over
Remember: When betting on this game, take a moment to compare lines across multiple top sportsbooks—small differences in odds can add up, giving you better value and a stronger edge before locking in your picks.

Alyssa contributes sportsbook/online casino reviews, but she also stays on top of any industry news, precisely that of the sports betting market. She’s been an avid sports bettor for many years and has experienced success in growing her bankroll by striking when the iron was hot. In particular, she loves betting on football and basketball at the professional and college levels.