Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Betting Picks (August 7, 2025)
The Indiana Fever (17–13) will finish up their four-game road trip Thursday against the Phoenix Mercury (18–11).
The Fever are 2–1 so far; they won against Dallas and Seattle before losing to the Sparks in a 100–91 shootout. And Phoenix is coming off a nice homestand as they continue to climb the standings with balanced scoring and really strong late-game execution!
Tip-off is at 10 pm in Phoenix, the home squad wants to button up playoff seeding, and Indiana keeps surprising us all with how well they’re playing without Caitlin Clark and a few defensive hiccups.
The last time these two teams met? Indiana took it.
107–101. Can they repeat the win this time?
Keep reading to find out what you need to know; we’ve got team form, momentum, the latest betting odds, head-to-head comparisons, and what we feel are the best bets for this one!
Game Details
- Matchup: Indiana Fever (17–13) at Phoenix Mercury (18–11)
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 7 at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
- How to Watch: ESPN / ESPN+
Current Form & Momentum
Indiana’s road trip will wind down with its toughest stop yet. Phoenix has been in a groove at home, and the Fever are still looking for stops on defense. Both teams are leaning on star guards and short benches, and execution in the halfcourt could decide it.
Indiana Fever
- The Fever is 3–1 on this road trip, getting wins at Dallas and Seattle
- Still bottom-tier in opponent FG% (44.9%) and points allowed (84.8)
- Mitchell’s averaging 21.2 PPG over the last 5; usage is spiking with Clark out
- Cunningham has a switchable presence on the wing, and that adds rebounding and perimeter defense
Phoenix Mercury
- Phoenix is 6–2 at home since the end of June, and they’ve outscored teams by almost 9 PPG
- Alyssa Thomas: 13.6 PTS, 9.7 REB, 8.4 AST over last 5
- Running more deliberate half-court sets with a higher assist rate and less empty possessions
- The Thomas-Sabally pairing? These two are overwhelming the slower frontcourts on second-chance chances
Main Matchups & Player Impact
- Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) vs. Phoenix perimeter defense: Mitchell is coming off a 34-point showing and has been hunting her shot early. Phoenix may need to trap high or shade her left to limit early clock isolations. Natasha Cloud will likely get this assignment and will need to be super disciplined through screens.
- Alyssa Thomas (Mercury): She initiates pretty much every half-court set and leads transition pushes off rebounds. Indiana’s forwards will need to body up early or risk giving up easy entries and trailer action.
- Satou Sabally (Mercury): She stretches out forwards defensively with spot-up threes but also works downhill off mismatch switches. Her ability to attack closeouts could expose Indiana’s help coverage.
- Sophie Cunningham (Fever): She is hands down the most impactful player in scramble sequences; Cunningham dives on loose balls, hits open threes in flow, and draws charges. She changes the game tempo even when she’s not scoring. Expect her minutes to spike if Phoenix goes small.
Live Betting Odds
Let’s take a look at the market! These are the latest odds and lines via ESPN BET if you plan to bet on this WNBA game:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Fever | +4.5 (-110) | +160 | Over 172.5 (-115) |
Mercury | -4.5 (-110) | -190 | Under 172.5 (-105) |
Just a heads-up—odds can shift quickly as tip-off approaches, so check the latest lines before betting, and be sure you’re using one of the top sports betting sites for the most value.
Head-to-Head Comparison
How do Indiana and Phoenix look when we compare them head-to-head? Check out the chart below!
| Category | Indiana Fever | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
Record | 17–13 | 18–11 |
Last 5 Games | 3–2 | 4–1 |
Points Per Game | 82.4 | 84.2 |
Defensive Rating | 11th in WNBA | 6th in WNBA |
2025 H2H Result | Won 107–101 (Home) | Lost 101–107 (Away) |
Our Best Bets
We’ve zeroed in on three bets that look promising, and we’ve got a parlay that is risky, but could pay off big if it hits!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Over 172.5 (-115 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) | Their last meeting hit 208. Both teams push tempo and rank in the bottom half in defensive rating. Indiana’s recent games have gone over in 7 of 10. |
Phoenix –4.5 (-110) | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Phoenix controls fourth quarters better at home. Indiana usually fades after the third, which is when rotations thin out and shot quality drops. |
Alyssa Thomas Over Assists | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) | Thomas sets the offense in motion, leads Phoenix in assists by a big margin, and she’s cleared this number in 4 of her last 5 games. |
Same Game Parlay (High Risk, High Reward)
- Legs: Phoenix ML + Over 172.5 + Kelsey Mitchell 20+ Points
- Projected Odds: +450 to +550
This parlay works if the game turns into another high-possession, guard-driven matchup where Phoenix is in control.
X-Factors to Watch
There are two things that could change the outcome of this one:
- Indiana’s defensive rebounding on long misses: Phoenix takes a high volume of perimeter shots when Thomas is initiating from the high post. If Boston and Smith fail to box out on the weak side? Sabally and Turner can grab second-chance looks.
- Phoenix’s backup guard minutes: Diana Taurasi’s off-ball minutes have turned up the pressure on Sug Sutton and Natasha Cloud to handle pick-and-rolls. If Indiana traps early or hedges hard, Phoenix’s second unit needs to make good decisions, or the Fever could alter the tempo off live turnovers.
Fever Are Climbing, But Mercury Have the Advantage at Home
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 91, Indiana Fever 84
Indiana’s offense has held up without Clark, but their defensive breakdowns keep resurfacing; they have given up way too many clean looks after initial actions, and when they’re forced to rotate? They lose their discipline. And that’s a big problem against a Mercury team that pounces on reads and second options via Sabally’s off-ball movement and Thomas’ high-post orchestration.
Phoenix has been far better at home, full stop. And it’s not because they explode out of the gate, but because they manage game flow by cutting off dribble penetration, forcing midrange jumpers, and making teams work for points in the half-court. That puts stress on Indiana to either shoot lights out or control the glass, and those two things they haven’t been able to do against physical teams.
If Mitchell doesn’t get early scoring support and Indiana doesn’t win the rebounding battle? This game is all Phoenix!
Best Bets Recap
- Top Bet: Over 172.5 Total Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Spread Bet: Phoenix –4.5 ⭐⭐⭐
- Player Prop: Alyssa Thomas Over Assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- SGP: Phoenix ML + Over 172.5 + Mitchell 20+ pts (odds range +450 to +550)
