Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction (July 29, 2025)
Two of the WNBA’s highest-scoring talents will face off on the hardwood in a head-to-head on July 29, when the Las Vegas Aces (13–13) take on the Los Angeles Sparks (11–14) at 10 p.m. ET.
The weapons? A’ja Wilson, who ranks second in the league with 21.6 points per game, and Kelsey Plum, who’s on Wilson’s heels at fourth with 20.1.
- The Sparks have turned their season around in the span of two weeks. A five-game win streak has pulled them to 11–14, and they’ve done it by tightening up on the defensive end and finally getting consistent guard play. And with Cameron Brink returning from injury? Los Angeles gets back its best interior defender in the nick of time to try and deal with A’ja Wilson.
- At .500, The Aces still have the best player on the court in Wilson, but the supporting cast hasn’t come through when they’re on the road. Las Vegas has lost four of its last five away games, and spacing issues keep stalling out their offense when Plum or Gray can’t hit from the perimeter.
Both of them are fighting for playoff seeding, but who will fight harder? The Sparks are healthier and playing their best basketball of the season. The Aces want to stop the slide and show they’re still a top-tier force.
We’ve got all of the deets! Keep scrolling to see recent team form and trends, player matchups, X-factors, betting odds, and trends, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details & Stakes
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (13–13) at Los Angeles Sparks (11–14)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 29, at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- How to Watch: ESPN+, WNBA League Pass
- Playoff Relevance: Both teams are grouped between the 4th and 8th seeds, making each game critical for seeding positioning.
- Season Series: Tied at 1–1; May 30: Aces 84 – Sparks 69; June 12: Sparks 78 – Aces 70
Recent Form & Team Trends
First up, let’s take a look at how the Sparks and the Aces have been playing as late and any team trends!
Los Angeles Sparks
- Record: 11–14 (5th in West)
- Last 5 Games: 5–0, each win by at least 7 points
- Scoring (Last 10): 90.6 points per game
- Shooting: 49.4% from the field, 35.2% from beyond the arc
- What’s Working: Defensive intensity has improved since mid-June, and their opponents are averaging only 76.2 PPG.
- Notable Shift: Turnovers have dropped from 14.8 per game to 11.2 over their last 6 games, and that’s a big boost for their half-court sets.
Las Vegas Aces
- Record: 13–13 (4th in West)
- Last 5 Games: 2–3
- Scoring (Last 10): 82.1 points per game
- Defensive Concerns: Opponents are shooting 46% over their past 7 matchups; there are too many open looks inside and out.
- Road Woes: They’re only 6–9 in away games this season, and several of those have gotten away from them in the fourth quarter.
- Injury Watch: Kelsey Plum is dealing with a minor wrist issue but is expected to play through it.
Main Player Matchups & X-Factors
Who’s up against whom, and what are the possible X-factors? Here’s what we’re watching out for:
| Matchup | Edge | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|
A’ja Wilson vs. Dearica Hamby | Aces | Wilson puts up 21.6 PPG and leads the league in PER. Hamby handles a heavy interior load for L.A., but Wilson’s physicality and shot volume should control the lane. |
Jewell Loyd vs. Layshia Clarendon | Aces | Loyd’s perimeter scoring gives Vegas a backcourt scoring edge. Clarendon brings veteran defense, but doesn’t offer much in return as a scoring threat. |
Cameron Brink’s Return | Sparks | Brink’s return gives L.A. a legit shot-blocker and high-post passer. Even in limited minutes, she can alter shots, rebound, and force the Aces to think twice about driving. |
Other X-Factors
- Kelsey Plum’s Shot Volume: She’s been taking on more of the scoring load with defenses collapsing on Wilson. If she keeps creating off the dribble and finding clean looks beyond the arc, Vegas has a secondary scoring outlet that can shift the matchup.
- L.A.’s Bench Support: Jordin Canada brings a lot of intensity at the point of attack and can disrupt passing lanes, and Rae Burrell has been way more reliable from deep in recent games. If that group holds serve? The Sparks won’t have to lean so heavily on their starters.
- Transition Pressure: The Sparks need to push off missed shots and turnovers so they don’t get trapped in Vegas’s half-court pace. If they generate early offense and don’t let the Aces set up, they control more of the game’s direction.
Head-to-Head Breakdown
Next up? The head-to-head stats for both WNBA teams:
- May 30 – Aces 84, Sparks 69: Las Vegas shot 51% from the floor and outrebounded L.A. by 14. Wilson and Plum combined for 45 points as the Aces controlled most of the game.
- June 12 – Sparks 78, Aces 70: Back in Los Angeles, the Sparks tightened their defense, holding Vegas to 38% shooting and forcing 17 turnovers. Dearica Hamby led with 20 and 10.
Main H2H Trends
- The Aces have covered in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
- Unders have hit in 3 of the last 4.
- The home team has won and covered in both 2025 matchups.
Latest Betting Odds
Throwing a wager on this game? We’ve got the latest odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Aces | -2.5 (EVEN) | -145 | Over 174.5 (-115) |
Sparks | +2.5 (-120) | +125 | Under 174.5 (-105) |
Odds fluctuate fast, especially near game time. Make sure you’re betting with the most current lines—it might be the edge that turns a lean into a win.
Betting Market & Line Movements
- Spread
- Opening: Aces –1.5
- 7/28: Aces –2.5
- Notes: Early action has backed Vegas despite L.A. being on a win streak
- Moneyline
- Opening: Aces –145
- 7/28: Aces –160 | Sparks +135
- Notes: Vegas is seeing the edge in most projections
- Total
- Opening: 171.5
- 7/28: 172.5
- Notes: A modest bump suggests the expectations of pace and scoring
Public Betting Trends
- Spread: About 62% of bettors are backing the Aces at –2.5
- Moneyline: Around 54% of the handle is on the Sparks, and it’s likely from bettors who are after plus-money value at home
- Total: Bettors are leaning slightly toward the Over, and it’s driven by L.A.’s scoring uptick over the last few games
Our Best Bets
Where do we think the smart money is, and why do we like it? Look below for our three best bets!
| Pick | Confidence | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
| Moderate | Las Vegas has the size edge inside and has covered 4 of the last 6 against the Sparks. |
Over 174.5 (–115) | Low–Moderate | L.A. has topped 90 points in 5 straight, and the Aces should push the pace with Plum and Wilson active. |
Jewell Loyd Over 17.5 Pts (–120) | Moderate | Loyd is getting volume looks from three and facing a defense that’s allowed multiple guards to hit 20+. |
Aces vs Sparks Prediction: Can L.A.’s Win Streak Survive the Champs?
Final Score Prediction: Aces 89 – Sparks 85
The Sparks are on a nice run, but most of those wins? They were against lower-tier teams. They haven’t faced a frontcourt presence like A’ja Wilson during that stretch, and Vegas still has the better top-end talent, so we’re backing the Aces to win.
If the Aces defend the interior and force the Sparks into tough looks outside the paint, they’re in a good position to separate down the stretch. L.A. needs a strong shooting night and a big performance from Brink or Canada to keep the score close.
Best Bets Recap
- Aces –2.5 (moderate)
- Over 172.5 (low-moderate)
- Loyd points prop (moderate)
Want to improve your betting results? Check out our expert betting strategies—and explore the top-rated sportsbooks where you can put them into action!
