Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview & Prediction (July 18, 2025)
It’s the Red Sox vs. Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago for a matinee game. What’s on deck for the teams? Only playoff standing!
Boston is at 53–45, only 1.5 games out of the AL East lead. And the Cubs are 57–39, two games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central.
Lucas Giolito is getting the ball for the Red Sox, and he’s had back-to-back wins where he went 6+ innings with only two runs allowed in each, and he’s only given up one homer in his last four. Colin Rea counters for the Cubs, and even though his ERA is under 4.00 at home, he’s been tagged for 17 hits in his last two starts at Wrigley.
Will it be Boston or Chicago? Keep scrolling to see the game details, betting odds, main storylines, and our three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Friday, July 18, 2:20 pm ET
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- How to Watch: MLB Network, Marquee Sports Network (CHC region), NESN (BOS region), MLB.tv
- Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito (BOS) – 6‑1, ERA 3.36; Colin Rea (CHC) – 7‑3, ERA 3.91
Betting Odds
Feeling out how to play this one? Here are the current odds and lines via FanDuel:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Red Sox | +1.5 (-192) | +108 | Over 8.5 (+100) |
Cubs | -1.5 (+158) | -126 | Under 8.5 (-122) |
Storylines to Watch
Here’s what we’ll be watching for in this midday ballgame:
- Giolito trending up, Rea struggling by the 3rd: In his last two starts, Lucas Giolito has gone 7 innings twice, giving up only 1 earned run in each and posting 17 strikeouts. Colin Rea has been tagged for 9 runs across his last 8.2 innings and was yanked before the 5th inning in his last two outings for allowing 3+ runs by the end of the 3rd in both.
- Head-to-head: Boston is 5–2 in their last seven meetings with the Cubs and has won 3 of their last 4 at Wrigley. And in those three Wrigley wins? They outscored Chicago 21–10.
- Momentum: Despite three sellouts, Chicago’s offense has scored only 8 total runs during their last four games at Wrigley, and they lost three of them. The top of the order has gone 7-for-41 in that stretch.
- Weather & Ballpark: The first pitch forecast shows 10–12 mph wind blowing in from right-center. That’s not great news for lefties like Devers and Bellinger, who are two of the main HR props on the board.
Our Best Bets
Okay, for this matchup? We like the following three angles!
1. Red Sox Moneyline (+108)
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Why Do We Like It?
Boston’s won 5 of the last 7 in this head-to-head, including 3 of 4 at Wrigley. Lucas Giolito has gone at least 6 innings in six of his last seven starts, giving up two runs or fewer in four of them. Boston’s bullpen owns a lower WHIP and better strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past 30 games than Chicago’s.
What to watch: If Giolito gets through the first two innings without giving up a run? Boston becomes the live favorite, and their bullpen can protect a narrow lead if they get one.
2. Over 8.5 Runs (+100)
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Why Do We Like It?
This setup definitely favors offense. Wrigley’s wind is projected to be blowing out around 10–12 mph, and that’s worth noting for power-heavy lineups like Boston’s. Rea has a 1.28 WHIP and has allowed 12 home runs in his last 9 starts, and lefties are hitting .465 off him. The Red Sox have a lot of left-handed hitters.
Giolito’s been the better pitcher, but he’s also allowed 5+ hits in 4 of his last 5 starts and occasionally runs into high-pitch-count innings that shorten his outings. The Cubs have hit right-handers really well when they’re playing at Wrigley.
What to watch: If either starter runs up a high pitch count or takes a hit the second time through the order? It could turn into a bullpen-heavy second half. Chicago’s middle relievers have a 5.40 ERA in July, and Boston’s pen has allowed a .264 opponent average over their last 10 games. Add in wind blowing out and two aggressive lineups, and this total has a real chance of landing north of 8.5!
3. Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (–192)
Our Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Why Do We Like It?
Boston has either won or lost by one run in 12 of their last 15 games. Giolito has kept his team in games with good 5–6 inning starts, and the Red Sox have found ways to stay in it, and that’s usually by scoring in the middle innings to even up the score.
What to watch: If the Cubs don’t build a lead by the sixth, Boston’s bullpen gives this line extra value. Their relief group has allowed only 5 earned runs over its last 21 innings and has been stranding runners at one of the best rates in the league since the end of June.
How to Bet Red Sox vs. Cubs
Boston has the advantage on the hill with Giolito, and their recent success at Wrigley gives this angle real value. Offensively, both clubs have enough pop to push this total higher because of suspect middle innings that we expect to see on both ends.
Best Bets Recap
- Red Sox ML (+108) – ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
- Over 8.5 Runs (+100) – ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
- Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (–192) – ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Boston is worth backing outright or with the cushion. The total leans high if either starter gets yanked in early innings and the matchups line up as expected, so lock in your bets before weather impact and line moves come into play!
Final Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Cubs 4
Giolito gives up two runs over five. Boston scores three in the sixth off Rea, then adds another run in the seventh. The Cubs get one back in the eighth, but the Sox bullpen covers the final four innings and hangs onto the lead.
