Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios WBC Welterweight Title Fight on July 19, 2025
When you think of boxing legends, a name that’s sure to pop into your mind is Manny Pacquiao. The “PacMan” is one of the most iconic boxers of the past 30 years, and on July 10? He’s back, baby!
And who is he ending his three-year retirement against when he bobs and weaves his way back into the ring at the MGM Grand in Vegas? Mario Barrios. The 46-year-old PacMan will take on Mario Barrios, the 30-year-old champion, for the WBC welterweight title.
Pacquiao hasn’t fought since his 2021 loss to Yordenis Ugas, and that bout ended his run with the WBA belt. He wants to make history again by breaking his own record as the oldest man to win a welterweight crown, one that he set when he claimed a belt at the age of 40.
Boxing fans, rejoice! You’ll be able to watch this fight and bet on all kinds of outcomes. Keep reading to see stats, betting odds, a tactical breakdown, expert analysis, our picks for the four best bets, prop and alt bets, and pairing recommendations!
Match Details
- What:Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios – WBC Welterweight Title Fight
- When: Saturday, July 19; Main card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET; Pacquiao vs. Barrios ringwalks expected to start around 11:00 p.m. ET
- Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- How To Watch: Pay-Per-View on Prime Video PPV ($79.99 in the U.S.); Also available on PPV.com; Prelims for Prime members begin at 5:30 p.m. ET
The Stakes
What’s on the line? Oh, only both fighters’ reps and egos.
- Barrios is defending the WBC welterweight title for the first time.
- Pacquiao is going right into a title fight after almost three years out of the ring.
- A win would make Pacquiao the oldest welterweight champion in history, breaking his own record.
- If Barrios wins, he takes out a global icon and adds a marquee scalp to his record.
- If Pacquiao pulls it off? He resets the age ceiling and walks away with another belt at 46 years old.
Tale of the Tape
- Pacquiao (46): PacMan’s fight record is 72–8–2, with 39 KOs; he’s a legendary southpaw, stands 5′5½″, and has a 67″ reach
- Barrios (30): Barrios’s fight record is 29–2–1, with 18 KOs; he’s 6 feet tall, has an Orthodox stance and a 70″ reach; he’s been the WBC title holder since 2024
What the Experts Are Saying
Bernard Hopkins, the oldest man to ever win a world title at 49, believes that Manny Pacquiao still has enough in the tank to beat Barrios if it goes the distance. “Manny’s got the speed, he’s got the experience… Manny could beat him by decision,” Hopkins told talkSPORT.
He doesn’t think a knockout is likely, but he’s not ruling out a smart, technical win from the veteran lefty.
Chris Algieri, who fought Pacquiao in 2014, sees a possible path for the 46-year-old, but only if his legs don’t give out. In a CBS Sports feature, Algieri said, “If Manny still has that first step, if he can still fire one of those left straights… we’ve got ourselves a fight.”
Still, he flagged conditioning as being the biggest concern if the fight goes past the midpoint.
And then there’s Sugar Ray Leonard, who knows a thing or two about late-career comebacks, and he stressed the mental side of the equation. “If he concentrates on his mental strength… that’s going to be the difference,” Leonard said in a talkSPORT interview. He feels that the biggest hurdle for Pacquiao isn’t physical, it’s psychological.
Latest Betting Odds
Putting some money on this pummeling? Here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:
- Moneyline – Mario Barrios: –275 (favorite)
- Moneyline – Manny Pacquiao: +210 (underdog)
- Over/Under 10.5 Rounds – Over: –135
Tactical Breakdown
Mario Barrios: Stands 6′0″ with a 70″ reach—he’ll look to keep Pacquiao at range using his jab and straight right. He’s comfortable fighting off the back foot and has logged full 12-round fights against Thurman, Ugas, and Maidana. Doesn’t have fight-ending power, but he stacks rounds with steady output and body work. He’ll try to slow Pacquiao down early by targeting the midsection and forcing him to reset.
Manny Pacquiao: At 5′5½″ with a 67″ reach, he’ll need to slip inside Barrios’ longer frame to do damage. His best weapons remain the lead left hand and quick in-and-out bursts. His southpaw stance is his best advantage, but his age, inactivity, and diminished leg movement all raise serious questions about his ability to close space or maintain output for 12 rounds.
Our Best Bet Picks
Okay, we’ve crunched the numbers and stats, and we’ve narrowed it down to the following four best bets!
#1 Mario Barrios Moneyline (–275)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (High)
Why Do We Like It?
Barrios is 30. Pacquiao is 46. That’s a 16-year age gap in a weight class where speed and stamina are all that matter. Barrios is 6′0″ with a 70″ reach, and Pacquiao gives up 6½ inches in height and 3 inches in reach. Barrios has fought three times since Pacquiao was last in the ring, including a clear decision win over Yordenis Ugas, and he beat Pacquiao in 2021.
Bottom Line: Pacquiao still has skills, but at this stage, age, timing, and activity all lean toward Barrios. It’s the most logical side, and it’s at a workable price.
#2 Over 10.5 Rounds (–135)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate)
Why Do We Like It?
Barrios has gone the distance in five of his last six. His game is built on volume and control, not on straight-up knockout power. Pacquiao hasn’t been stopped since 2009 and went 12 rounds with Ugas, Thurman, and Broner. Even at 46, he’s durable enough that he probably won’t get walked down in the first few rounds.
Bottom Line: If Barrios doesn’t carry late-fight knockout power and Pacquiao doesn’t gas out? This is a calculated bet.
#3 Value Bet: Barrios by Decision (+200)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (High)
Why Do We Like It?
Barrios has two career knockouts after Round 6. He beat Ugas and Akhmedov by decision. Pacquiao has lasted all 12 rounds in six of his last seven fights. Barrios isn’t likely to force him onto his back foot, and Pacquiao’s ring IQ will cut down on clean exchanges. This one hinges on Barrios staying active, controlling range, and banking rounds, and that’s something he’s repeatedly done in fights.
Bottom Line: This is the most probable result if Barrios wins, and it pays out double what the moneyline does with the same risk!
#4 Longshot: Barrios to Win in Rounds 9–12 (+400)
Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (Low)
Why Do We Like It?
Pacquiao slowed down in the second half of the Ugas fight and hasn’t fought since. Barrios has late-round finishes on his record: Rounds 8 (Juarez), 10 (Velasco), and 11 (Karl). If fatigue sets in, Barrios can capitalize with volume and body shots in the closing stretch.
Bottom Line: It’s a low-percentage play, but it’s viable if Pacquiao shows signs of decline after Round 8. A smaller bet with a big payout if it lands.
Five Prop Bets & Alt Markets
#1 Total Knockdowns – Under 1.5 Knockdowns (-200 range)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (High)
Barrios hasn’t scored more than one knockdown in a fight since 2020. Pacquiao hasn’t scored a knockdown in over five years and isn’t likely to press for one at age 46. Neither man brings a high knockout volume at this stage of their careers. This matchup is more tactical than violent.
Why do we like it? A controlled pace, mutual respect, and two fighters who can take a punch point to limited knockdown risk. This has good value if you expect a few explosive exchanges!
#2 Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (–105)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate)
Barrios has fought all 12 rounds in five of his last six bouts. Pacquiao hasn’t been stopped since 2009 and went the full 12 with Thurman in 2019 and Ugas in 2021. This bet pairs well with Over 10.5 and “Barrios by Decision.”
#3 Winning Group of Rounds – Barrios Rounds 9–12 (+400)
Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (Low Value Shot)
Pacquiao slowed noticeably in the second half of the Ugas fight and, as we keep saying, hasn’t fought since. If he fades again after Round 8, Barrios has the size, stamina, and body attack to break him down. He’s finished opponents in Rounds 8, 10, and 11 before, and it’s usually by accumulation over clean shots.
It’s a long shot, but this window makes the most sense if Pacquiao starts strong and then stalls physically in the final four rounds. There’s a high upside if you’re betting on age catching up with PacMan.
#4 Method + Round Combo – Barrios by KO in Round 10 (+1600)
Our Confidence Level: ★☆☆☆☆ (Super Speculative)
This one is extremely speculative, but Round 10 lines up with the scenario where Pacquiao’s output drops and Barrios pours it on. It’s a common breaking point for aging fighters. Barrios has recorded stoppages in the 10th before, and increases his volume as the fight wears on.
This is only for long-odds chasers. If Pacquiao fades after Round 8 and can’t stay off the ropes, this is the spot where it goes downhill.
#5 Pacquiao by KO/TKO (+650 to +750)
Our Confidence Level: ★☆☆☆☆ (Very Low)
Pacquiao hasn’t stopped anyone since Matthysse in 2018. In his last two fights, he landed solid shots but couldn’t close. Barrios has absorbed really heavy volume from aggressive opponents and stayed upright every time—no KO’s. There’s no evidence that Manny still has fight-ending power over multiple rounds.
We don’t like this bet. But if you’re playing the nostalgia card and banking on a one-shot moment? Go for it (please do not go for it).
Strategic Bet Pairing Recs
Wanna build a bet stack? You should match your main play with correlated props that align with how you see the fight playing out! Look at the table to see how to line it up based on your reading:
| If you’re betting on… | Pair it with: |
|---|---|
Barrios ML (–275) | Over 10.5 rounds, fight to go the full 12 |
Barrios by Decision (+220) | Total Knockdowns Under 1.5, Over 10.5 rounds |
Barrios late KO (+900) | Barrios to win Rounds 9–12, Pacquiao to lose by TKO |
Pacquiao by KO (+1400) | Under 10.5 rounds, Pacquiao to win in Rounds 7–9 |
Will the Legend Rise or Fall? Our Prediction
The PacMan doesn’t need to prove anything, but he clearly wants to get back in the ring. But he’s 46 years old, hasn’t fought in close to three years, and was clearly outpointed by Yordenis Ugas the last time we saw him fight. Since then, Barrios has been active and had a convincing win over that same opponent. He’s younger, taller, and hasn’t been on an extended break.
Pacquiao may very well still have the timing to steal a few early rounds, but this fight favors Barrios in every physical category. He doesn’t need a knockout; just sustained output and control. If Pacquiao loses steam by Round 6 or 7, Barrios wins it.
Best Bets Recap
- Barrios Moneyline (–275): ★★★★☆
- Over 10.5 Rounds (–135): ★★★☆☆
- Barrios by Decision (+220): ★★★★☆
- Barrios to Win Rounds 9–12 (+400): ★★☆☆☆
This fight will likely go the full 12 rounds, and Barrios by decision is the most realistic outcome, with round totals and knockdown props offering extra value if you expect a methodical, one-sided scorecard. Pacquiao would need to have a near-perfect early execution to change this, and that’s hard to trust when your opponent is 16 years your junior.
Our Final Prediction
Mario Barrios def. Manny Pacquiao via Unanimous Decision (Scores: 117–111, 116–112, 118–110)
Barrios will control the range, win the majority of rounds, and there won’t be any big exchanges.
We’ll see a few bursts of the Pacquiao we know, but he’ll gas out in late rounds and have a hard time maintaining an output of shots.
Looking to enjoy this fight by placing a few wagers? Head over to one of the top boxing betting apps to be able to bet at any time and from anywhere on this matchup.
