Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 Prediction & Betting Breakdown (July 11, 2025)
Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano don’t like each other. Ok, that’s an understatement. It might be for show, but to us? It looks like they hate each other with a passion that’s usually reserved for exes.
Their rivalry isn’t only the most well-known in women’s boxing; it’s also super hostile. Which makes sense, because they get in a ring to beat each other up. They’ve already had two brutal fights, and now they’re going for round three. Taylor is putting all four of her junior welterweight titles on the line at Madison Square Garden this Friday night.
Their first fight back in April 2022 ended in a split decision for Taylor, and it was a verdict that kicked off a lot of backlash. Serrano landed the heavier shots, and she looked like the one who was doing the work. The judges disagreed, and that’s where the bad blood started and lit the fuse on the feud.
Their November rematch? Well, that only poured more gasoline on the fire. Taylor won again, this time on the cards unanimously, but Serrano looked like the one who brought the fight to Taylor.
She walked out of the ring covered in blood after taking multiple headbutts, one of which cost Taylor a point and messed up Serrano’s face. That’s the backstory going into the fight on July 11 at MSG.
As before, they’ll go just 10 rounds at two minutes each, which is the standard for women’s title fights.
Serrano is finally the favorite, and it’s long overdue. After getting edged out twice on the cards, oddsmakers are done pretending that this is an even fight.
But the moneyline isn’t where the edge is! The best betting angles are buried inside props, as pricing hasn’t caught up to reality.
We are gonna break down every single angle that matters, like where to bet, what to ignore, and which lines offer the real value! Let’s get ready to rumble (we know that’s wrestling, but it kinda works)!
Recap of the Rivalry
Taylor has the 2–0 record with one split, one unanimous, but the scorecards did not tell the whole story. Serrano fought forward, dictated the tempo, and still got edged out twice.
This time? The oddsmakers aren’t buying it. Serrano is the favorite, and it’s not because anything changed; it’s because the numbers finally caught up to the fight.
The Betting Landscape and Odds
If you’re betting on this fight, here are the current odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Moneyline Odds Comparison
- Serrano: –180
- Taylor: +140
Moneyline Implied Probability
- Serrano: ~62–63% win chance
- Taylor: ~44–45%
Our Best Bets for Real Value
Where is the value? Here it is! Look below for our two best bets and a longshot if you’re feeling punchy like these ladies:
Best Bet #1: Serrano to Win by Decision (-105 or better)
Our Confidence Level: 8/10
She’s done enough to win twice and got shafted both times. Serrano’s the one throwing with intent, pushing the pace, and stalking Taylor around the ring. The power’s there, the volume’s relentless, and unless the judges blow it again? This one should finally be her fight on the cards. Third time’s a charm!
Best Bet #2: Over 0.5 Knockdowns (+250)
Our Confidence Level: 7/10
It’s well overdue. They’ve been swinging heavy for 20 rounds already, and both have had moments where they were shooketh. Serrano throws like she means it, and Taylor’s not getting any harder to hit. One knockdown cashes this, and it doesn’t matter which fighter hits the floor.
Longshot Spot: Taylor by KO/TKO (+1800)
Our Confidence Level: 2/10
This is definitely Hail Mary territory. Taylor’s not known for putting people away, but if something’s going to shake things up, it’ll come from a perfect storm, like a mid-fight rally, cut reopening, or a ref stepping in on volume. The number’s crazy for a reason, but if you’re after some chaos, you might like this one.
Main Angles for Bettors
Below, we break down the main angles for bettors by style, price, and the prop insights:
- Serrano’s Edge: She’s the one applying pressure, cutting space, and landing shots with force. At 140, her punches carry more impact, and she doesn’t give opponents the room to reset. Judges haven’t always rewarded her volume, but the physical control is hard to miss, and now the odds finally show it.
- Taylor’s Edge: She’s cleaner in close rounds, better at landing single shots that score, and resetting before things spiral. Her footwork and timing neutralized a lot of Serrano’s momentum in both fights. With her father back in her corner, expect a disciplined plan to slow the tempo and make the rounds narrow enough to steal.
Prop Insights
- Method of Victory: Serrano by decision is around +100. Her KO sits near +600. Taylor by KO is a long shot at +1800.
- Rounds Betting: Early-round knockouts pay really well, but this fight is more likely to go long. If there’s a stoppage, you can expect it late, like during rounds 7–10.
Quick Bet Card
Here’s a quick bet card to refer to before you lock in your wagers at any of the best boxing betting apps.
| Bet | Odds | Our Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Serrano by Decision | +100 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Over 0.5 Knockdowns | +250 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Taylor KO/TKO | +1800 | ⭐⭐ |
Our Official Prediction for the Trilogy Finale
Our Final Prediction:
- Amanda Serrano wins by Decision
- Our Confidence Level: 8/10
Serrano has outworked Taylor in two straight fights and got absolutely nothing to show for it. This time? She’s got the advantage before the first ding ding, and she should leave with the result.
Taylor’s still good, still disciplined, and we can’t take that away from her, but she’s not matching Serrano’s pace at 140. Unless something drastic changes? This will be another fight where Taylor stays on her feet but doesn’t land enough.
Expect to see a high-output fight with no finish; 10 rounds, constant movement, and the judges will decide it again.
The best value isn’t in the winner, it’s in the method! Decision props and knockdown markets are priced better than the moneyline.
Don’t bet on which fighter you like better; the models all favor Serrano. She’s done the work in both fights, and this time? The price matches up with the performance.
Stick to the outcome-based bets. The straight line just isn’t worth the risk!
