LA Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Betting Picks (July 7, 2025)
The Dodgers and the Brewers will battle it out in a three-game series, and it’s happening in Milwaukee at American Family Field.
The Brewers get home field advantage, but do they need it? The Dodgers went down to the Astros (0-3), and in the first game of it, they lost 18-1, which was their worst loss at Dodger Stadium. Oof.
The Brewers are sitting in second in the NL Central, so they’re in a good spot. Now the two teams are playing for postseason positioning; who will take this series?
We’ve got all of the stats, who’s pitching, main matchups, betting odds, game outlook, our picks for the three best bets, and a bonus lean! Keep scrolling to find out what you need to know.
Game Details
- Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (56–35; 23–18 away) @ Milwaukee Brewers (50–40; 27–17 home)
- Date & Time: Monday, July 7; First pitch at 7:40 pm ET (4:40 pm PT)
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
- How to Watch: SportsNet LA (Dodgers coverage); FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin (Brewers coverage), and will simulcast on local over-the-air stations
- Weather Forecast: Mostly sunny skies, temps will be around 71 °F at first pitch; perfect conditions through the evening
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
On the hill for the start of the game? That’ll be Yamamoto for LA and Peralta for Milwaukee. Both are righties and have been super solid in recent games!
| Player | Details |
|---|---|
Dodgers – Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yamamoto is 8–6 with a 2.51 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 96.2 innings. He went seven innings against the Cubs last time out, allowing one run and striking out eight. Over his last four starts, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs. |
Brewers – Freddy Peralta | Peralta is 9–4 with a 2.91 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 99 innings. He gave up two runs in six innings against the Mets last week. He’s faced the Dodgers four times since 2022 and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those games. |
Offense & Main Matchups
The Dodgers, despite their losses to the Astros, are leading the league in scoring and head into this one with an advantage at the plate. Milwaukee has been productive as well, but not at the same level.
Dodgers
- They average 5.54 runs per game, with a team batting average of .261 and a .457 hitting percentage.
- Shohei Ohtani: 30 home runs, .281 average
- Will Smith: .332 average, one of the most consistent hitters in the lineup
Brewers
- Milwaukee scores 4.69 runs per game and is hitting .246 with a .381 slugging percentage.
- Christian Yelich: 17 home runs, 61 RBIs
- Sal Frelick: .291 average, great production at the top of the order
Betting Odds & Trends
Feeling lucky? Here are the latest odds and lines as posted on ESPN BET:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | -1.5 (+125) | -145 | Over 7.5 (-115) |
Brewers | +1.5 (-150) | +120 | Under 7.5 (-105) |
- Public Betting: ~85% backing Dodgers
- Heat Map: The Dodgers are 6‑4 in the last 10 vs. the Brewers, but the Brewers are always strong at home (27‑17)
Our Best Bets
It’s that time again! Look below for our three best bets and a bonus lean.
1. Brewers Moneyline (+125)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Peralta is 3–0 with a 1.80 ERA across his last three starts; he hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of them.
- Milwaukee is 27–17 at home and has handled playoff-caliber teams in this park before.
- The Dodgers’ top hitters haven’t produced as much against high-strikeout starters, and Peralta’s fastball-slider mix has limited left-handed power in previous matchups.
- Because most bets are landing on L.A., there’s added value on the Brewers as home underdogs behind a reliable starter.
2. Under 7.5 Total Runs
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Yamamoto has a 2.51 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
- Peralta has given up three runs or fewer in each of his last five.
- Both pitchers have worked deep into games and kept opposing lineups off the board in early innings.
- The weather forecast calls for mild conditions with no wind, so that means no major factors influencing offense.
- If both starters reach the sixth? This total stays in range.
3. Christian Yelich 1+ RBI
Our Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Yelich is hitting over .300 with runners in scoring position and leads the team with 61 RBIs.
- He’s likely to see at least one high-leverage spot against Yamamoto or a middle reliever.
- The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 4.32 ERA.
- This is a riskier prop, but sportsbooks are pricing it between +140 and +170, and if it hits? That’s a nice payout.
Bonus Lean: First 5 Innings Under 4.5
Yamamoto has allowed one run or less through five innings in four straight starts. Peralta has done the same in three of his last four. Both starters usually reach the sixth with less than 80 pitches, so if you’re betting on a low-scoring start and don’t want late innings involved? This is the better angle!
Game Flow Outlook
- Innings 1–3: Yamamoto and Peralta have each held opponents to one run or fewer through three innings in four of their last five starts. A slow start offensively is the most likely scenario here as well.
- Innings 4–6: This stretch could be the decider. Peralta has allowed most of his home runs the second time through the lineup. The Brewers may go to the bullpen if his pitch count passes 90.
- Innings 7–9: The Dodgers’ bullpen has allowed 9 earned runs across its last four games and has given up runs in the eighth inning three times during that span. Milwaukee has been the better team in close games’ later innings; Payamps and Peguero have combined for a 2.35 ERA across the last 30 appearances.
Closing Prediction: Who Has the Edge?
The Dodgers are the road favorites, but this matchup? It’s more even than the line suggests. Peralta’s recent stretch and Milwaukee’s 27–17 home record give the Brewers a really good shot at taking the opener.
With both starters limiting runs over the last few weeks, early scoring should be low. And if the game is still close past the sixth, Milwaukee has been the more reliable club in late innings.
Yelich is the most dependable hitter in Milwaukee’s lineup right now and should have chances to drive in runs if he’s up with traffic against the bullpen!
Best Bets Recap
- Brewers ML (+125): Confidence ★★★☆☆
- Under 7.5 Total Runs (–110): Confidence ★★★☆☆
- Christian Yelich 1+ RBI (+140 to +170): Confidence ★★☆☆☆
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Los Angeles Dodgers 3
Peralta gets the better of Yamamoto by a small margin, and the Brewers’ bullpen finishes it off with a one-run lead.
Keep checking the lines as we get closer to the first pitch in case they end up changing in your favor. And remember to bet safely and responsibly within your means!
