Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Preview & Prediction (July 4, 2025)
What’s better than a baseball game on the Fourth of July? Not much! Taking the field on this oh-so-American holiday are the Phillies and the Reds.
What’s at stake? Only playoff positioning for Philly and Cincinnati! The Reds are looking good after a sweep and have been producing runs up and down the lineup.
Philadelphia is always on fire when they’re at home and will send out Jesús Luzardo to face Reds lefty Andrew Abbott in what looks like a lower-run game.
Who’ll win on Independence Day? Keep scrolling for an overview of the main trends, betting odds, the important matchups, and our picks for the three bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Friday, July 4, first pitch at 1:05 pm ET
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- How to Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia (NBCS‑PH) and FanDuel Sports Network Ohio (FDSOH), MLB.TV
- Weather: Warm and mostly sunny with mid‑80s temps and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms
Team Form & Motivation
The Phils and the Reds are both in reach of playoff positioning, but their recent trajectories haven’t looked the same. Here’s how they’ve been playing up to this point:
Reds
At 45–42, Cincinnati is still climbing up in the NL Central and comes into this one off a three-game sweep of Boston. Andrew Abbott (7–1, 1.79 ERA) gets the start as he keeps building a solid case for the All-Star roster.
Phillies
Philadelphia sits at 51–36; they’re second in the NL East. After splitting a July 2 doubleheader with San Diego, they give the ball to Jesús Luzardo (7–4, 4.06 ERA), who needs a comeback after allowing 4+ earned runs in two of his last three starts.
Main Matchups & X‑Factors
Who are we watching, and what are the x-factors that could swing this one? Look below!
Abbott vs. Luzardo
- Andrew Abbott has allowed only one earned run or fewer in 12 of his 14 starts, holding opposing hitters to a .203 average. He’s gone at least five innings in all but one outing this season.
- Jesús Luzardo has given up two runs or fewer in 12 of 17 starts, but opposing lineups are batting .267 against him, and contact rates are up, and it’s always against right-handed hitters.
Hitters to Watch
- Elly De La Cruz (Reds): De La Cruz is hitting .275 with 18 home runs and 58 RBIs, plus an alarming 24 stolen bases. He’s reached base in 12 of his last 14 games and continues to keep the pressure on pitchers with his speed.
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Leads the team with 26 home runs. He’s drawn walks in 11 straight games and is hitting .610 over his last 20.
Injury/IL Notes
- Reds: Spencer Steer is day-to-day. Noelvi Marte and Graham Ashcraft are still on the IL.
- Phillies: Aaron Nola (forearm), Tyler McGowan (elbow), and Cam Garnett (oblique) are all sidelined.
Betting Odds & Analysis (Updated July 4)
Want to get in on the action? Here are the latest betting odds and lines according to DraftKings:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Reds | +1.5 (-159) | +136 | Over 8.5 (-102) |
Phillies | -1.5 (+130) | -166 | Under 8.5 (-119) |
Our Best Bets
If you’re wagering on this one, we have found three angles that look the most promising!
1. Phillies Moneyline (-166)
Our Confidence Level: 8/10
Why do we like it?
- Philadelphia is 28–14 at home, and that’s one of the best home records in the National League.
- The Phillies have won 6 of their last 8 against left-handed starters.
- Abbott has pitched really well, but the top of Philly’s order (Schwarber, Bohm, Harper) has produced against lefties who have similar pitch profiles.
2. Under 8.5 Runs (-119)
Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why do we like it?
- Abbott owns a 1.79 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts.
- Luzardo has given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five home outings.
- Neither lineup ranks in the top half of the league for run totals over the past 10 games.
- Watch out for Cincinnati’s bullpen! They’ve allowed 7th-inning runs in four of their last six games.
3. Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 RBIs (+175)
Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why do we like it?
- Schwarber has 10 RBIs over his last 7 games.
- He’s been really productive against left-handers, averaging below 93 mph, and this lines up with Abbott’s fastball.
- Hitting in the two or three spot gives him a lot of RBI chances.
- This is high variance, but the price makes it playable!
How We’re Playing This July 4th Matchup
We think that this game will hinge on how the Phillies hit against Andrew Abbott; he’s only allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts.
Philadelphia’s best hitters have faced off against and handled left-handed pitching better than Cincinnati’s have fared against right-handers, and they’ve been hitting really well at home. Luzardo has been a little uneven, but he has kept recent home starts under control against stronger lineups than this!
Best Bets Recap
- Phillies ML (–125 to –135) and Under 9 Runs (–110) is one of the most reliable plays based on pitching trends and team splits.
- Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 RBIs (+140) is a really worthwhile prop if you’re targeting upside; he’s batting in high-leverage spots and facing a lefty he can hit against.
Make sure to check multiple online sportsbooks for the best lines before you bet, as odds can move! And always gamble responsibly!
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 4, Reds 2
Abbott allows a few runs through the middle innings, and the Phillies will take control by the fifth. Neither bullpen will give up much over the final three frames. The total stays under 9, and Philadelphia hits on the moneyline!
