New York City FC vs. Toronto FC Prediction & Betting Picks (July 3, 2025)
Is it weird to anyone else that there are soccer games at Yankee Stadium? Just me? Anyway, New York City FC is playing Toronto FC at Yankee Stadium tomorrow.
Both MLS Eastern Conference teams have the playoffs in their sights, and both need the points.
NYCFC has lost two straight, conceding in the 9th and 14th minutes in those games and never pulling closer than two goals. Toronto hasn’t gotten consecutive results since early June; the midfield keeps losing shape in the final 20 minutes, and opponents are turning that into high-percentage chances.
NYCFC sits just above the playoff line, and Toronto is only one spot behind them. A win here? It would reshuffle the order and put extra pressure on teams like D.C. United and Chicago, both of whom have matches this weekend.
Yankee Stadium’s narrow layout speeds up the pace and limits space out wide. That usually favors NYCFC’s vertical style, but if Toronto breaks through the first line and finds runners between the lines, they can control the tempo.
What do you need to know if you’re betting on this one? We’ll prep you! Look below for the stakes, stats, betting odds, our four picks for best bets, and a fun extra side wager!
Match Overview
- Fixture: New York City FC vs. Toronto FC
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, at 7:30 pm ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NYC
- Competition: Major League Soccer regular season (Streaming on MLS Season Pass)
- Broadcast: MLS Season Pass on the Apple TV app
What’s at Stake
NYCFC is in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, just two points off the top four, but also only three ahead of the cut line. A win keeps them in range of a home playoff match. A loss? And they’re right back in the logjam with D.C., Orlando, and Charlotte.
Toronto is 10th and trending toward another year on the outside. They’ve lost four of their last six and can’t afford to drop points to teams that are right above them. Three points here keep a postseason spot within reach. Anything less, and it starts looking like they’ll be in damage control mode.
NYCFC can move into a top-six spot with a win. Toronto sits 13th; still within reach of the playoff line. Anything less? They’ll fall further behind the crowded pack.
Main Storylines
What are we watching for before kickoff? These storylines:
Home Advantage – NYCFC at Yankee Stadium
- NYCFC are 7–1–1 at Yankee Stadium this season, with seven of their eight total wins coming on home turf.
- Narrow field and a loud crowd favor NYCFC’s direct, vertical attack.
Injury/Availability Watch
- NYCFC is missing goalkeeper Matt Freese, Alonso Martínez, and Keaton Parks due to duty or injury.
- Toronto FC has Richie Laryea and Kobe Franklin back from Gold Cup duty; key midfielders Jonathan Osorio and Markus Cimermancic are nearing returns.
- Downers: Torontonians Zane Monlouis, Henry Wingo, Coylo Cimermancic, plus Federico Bernardeschi and DeAndre Kerr are all sidelined.
Form vs. Strategy
NYCFC has won 3, drawn 2, and lost 3 in their last eight. Nick Cushing continues to push a direct style at home; a narrow, vertical setup that relies on quick passing through the middle, and that’s really well-suited to Yankee Stadium’s short width and compressed space.
Toronto has conceded 6 goals in the final 20 minutes of their last five matches. Defensive rotations break down when midfield legs fade, leaving space between the back line and the keeper.
- Tactically, if Toronto holds a compact block in the first half and forces NYCFC into wider, lower-percentage service, they’ll have chances to break forward quickly if Insigne or Petretta finds room behind NYCFC’s outside backs.
Statistical Edge
Let’s take a quick look at the numbers before kickoff!
League Goal Average
- MLS matches are averaging 2.9 goals in 2025 (810 goals across 278 games).
- NYCFC and Toronto both play open enough to push totals toward or above that number when neither side controls possession for long stretches.
xG Trends
- NYCFC generates most of its expected goals from inside 12 yards, and they create fewer chances overall but go for high-percentage looks.
- Toronto has a tendency to give up late chances (6 goals allowed after the 70th minute in their last five), and that indicates a drop-off in midfield coverage and defensive tracking.
Set-Pieces
- NYCFC has converted over half of its set-piece headers on target in recent home matches.
- Toronto has a really hard time clearing second balls in tight spaces and sits below league average on defending dead-ball situations.
- With fewer open-play buildups at Yankee Stadium, this area could very well decide the match.
Betting Odds
Want to put some money on this one? Here are the latest betting odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:
Moneyline (3-way)
- NYC: -165
- Draw: +310
- Toronto: +425
Spread
- NYC -0.5 (-165)
- Toronto +0.5 (+120)
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (-135)
- Under 2.5 (+105)
Our Best Bets
Time for our picks! Below are the four best bets and a fun extra side one if you’re feeling adventurous.
| Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
NYCFC to Win -165 | 8/10 | NYCFC is 7–1–1 at home. Toronto’s won once in their last seven away, conceding multiple goals in five of those. |
Over 2.5 Goals -120 | 7/10 | Four of the last five head-to-heads cleared this line. Toronto’s defense has leaked goals all season. |
Both Teams to Score (Yes) -110 | 6/10 | Toronto has scored in 8 of 10. NYCFC hasn’t recorded a home clean sheet since April. |
Anytime Goalscorer – Talles Magno (NYCFC) | 7/10 | Magno plays central, handles set pieces, and has scored in 2 of his last 3 at Yankee Stadium. |
Correct Score (Side Bet) – NYCFC 3–1 | 4/10 | If NYCFC breaks it open, this fits the pattern. Toronto stays in it but can’t keep up. Use as a long shot only. |
Extra Insight
- NYCFC Motivation: One point off a playoff spot. At home, on short turf, with a real chance to bank three.
- Toronto Weaknesses: Bottom-tier in xGA, missing starters in the back line.
- Match Tempo: Both teams need points, so expect space to open up after halftime.
Feeling good about some of these bets? If you’re up for it, place a wager at one of the most trusted betting apps to get competitive lines and fast payouts on your winnings.
NYCFC vs. Toronto FC: How We’re Playing It
NYCFC has the home edge, the healthier squad, and a matchup that plays to their strengths. Toronto’s defensive issues on the road continue, and they haven’t shown much stability across 90 minutes. Because both teams are pushing for points, this one sets up really well for goal-based bets and a few targeted props!
Best Bets Recap
- Top Pick: NYCFC to Win (8/10 confidence): Strong at home, Toronto has only one road win in seven.
- Best Value: Over 2.5 Goals: Both teams give up chances, and past meetings have gone over.
- Prop to Watch: Talles Magno Anytime Scorer: Central role, takes set pieces, gets volume in this setup.
- Both Teams to Score? Yes: Toronto has found the net in 8 of 10. NYCFC rarely shuts teams out.
- Odds Note: The NYCFC moneyline could shorten, so if you like the side, take it early!
Final Score Prediction: NYCFC 3 – 1 Toronto FC
NYCFC gets two after halftime, both through their front line. Toronto scores once late, but it doesn’t change the outcome!
