Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Prediction & Betting Picks (June 24, 2025)
The Phillies open a three-game set in Houston after whooping the Mets 7–1 on Sunday (if you can’t tell, I’m a Phillies fan). They have had a pretty bad time this month, and they have to cobble together a few wins to stay in the mix in the NL East. The Astros took two of three from Seattle and have been solid at home in their last few series.
Tuesday’s matchup has two southpaws who can work late into games. Ranger Suárez has been one of the most reliable starters in the National League, while Framber Valdez is coming off good back-to-back outings after a little early season inconsistency. There are power hitters in both lineups, and this one could go in either direction; it all depends on which starter gets through the middle innings without giving up innings.
Keep scrolling for a complete breakdown of this one! We’ve got pitching and matchup stats, betting odds, and our picks for the best bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (47-31) vs. Houston Astros (45-33)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, June 24 at 8:10 pm ET
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston (formerly Minute Maid Park)
- How To Watch: SCHN, NBCS-PH
- Weather Forecast: High around 85 °F at first pitch
Starting Pitchers
We’ve got two lefties starting for the Phillies and the Astros. Fun fact: Framber Valdez does most other things with his right hand, including batting. But he pitches with his left! Look below for the starter stats:
Ranger Suárez (PHI)
- Season: 6–1, 2.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
- 52 strikeouts, 14 walks in 9 starts
- Last start: 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K vs. Marlins (June 18)
- Opponents are hitting just .221 against him
- Has held teams to 2 earned runs or fewer in 8 of 9 outings
- Limits baserunners early and keeps hitters from driving the ball
Framber Valdez (HOU)
- Season: 8–4, 3.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
- 99 strikeouts, 33 walks in 15 starts
- Last start: 7 IP, 1 R vs. Orioles on June 23
- The Astros have won during his last 8 starts
- Valdez went 7–0 with a 2.13 ERA during that stretch
- Has thrown at least 7 innings in 4 of his last 5 without giving up a home run
Recent Form & Trends
How have these two teams been playing as of late? We’ve got that info for you!
Framber Valdez
- Valdez is on an 8‑start win streak; the Astros have won every game he’s started during that run
- Last outing (June 18 vs. Athletics): 6 IP, 2 R, big performance in an 11‑4 win
Astros Offense
- Scored 8 runs on June 22 vs. the Angels
- Houston is 9‑3 SU in its last 12 games total
Head-to-head & Public Backing
- The Phillies and Astros have split their last 20 matchups; both are 10–10
- Public betting looks pretty even; it’s about 50/50 as of now
- Algorithmic models are favoring the Astros with a ~53% win probability
Current Betting Odds
DraftKings has posted the following odds and lines if you are betting on this one:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Phillies | +1.5 (-187) | +118 | Over 7.5 (+103) |
Astros | -1.5 (+152) | -144 | Under 7.5 (-125) |
Our Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Time for our three best bets, why we like them, and how confident we are feeling about the picks! We also have two decent props that are worth taking a look at.
Best Bet #1: Moneyline – Astros (HOU ML)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Valdez has won eight straight starts, and Houston has backed him with good offense during that stretch. Philadelphia has had a few issues generating runs against top-tier left-handed pitching, and Suárez hasn’t gotten a lot of cushion in his recent outings. With how well the Astros have played at home? They have the edge here.
Best Bet #2: Under 8.5 Runs
Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Suárez and Valdez have both been working through six innings or more, and have limited scoring allowed in their recent starts. Valdez hasn’t given up a home run in over a month, and Suárez has kept opposing hitters below a .225 average. The lineups have power, but the starting pitcher matchup points to a lower-scoring game.
Best Bet #3: Anytime Home Run – Kyle Schwarber
Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Schwarber’s history against Houston is weirdly specific; every hit has left the yard. He just logged a two-hit game and has the swing to lift Valdez’s sinker into the short porch in right. If he sees a fastball over the plate? He’ll knock it out of the park.
Props to Think About
- Valdez Over 6.5 IP: Valdez has finished seven full innings in four of his last five. He’s not piling up walks, he’s keeping pitch counts reasonable, and the Astros haven’t been quick to yank him when he’s dealing. If he keeps Phillies hitters from dragging out at-bats? He should go long enough to cover this.
- Total Ks Over 12.5: Valdez and Suárez both average more than a strikeout per inning, and neither one relies on overpowering pitches to get outs. If they’re in control through the sixth or seventh, this number has a real shot, especially because both are good at forcing hitters to swing with two strikes!
Bottom of the 9th & Final Score Call
Framber Valdez has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts and hasn’t given up a home run since May. He’s gone at least seven innings in four of his last five and hasn’t had a walk-heavy outing in weeks. That kind of stability has kept Houston in control at home and on the road.
The Phillies scored seven on Sunday, but they were held to three runs or fewer in five of their last eight games. Schwarber’s power gives them a chance, but the lineup hasn’t done a lot against left-handed starters in June. Suárez can keep this close, but it’s really hard to trust the offense in a low-scoring matchup like this!
Best Bets Recap
- Astros ML (★★★★☆)
- Under 8.5 Runs (★★★☆☆)
- Schwarber HR Prop (★★★☆☆)
Final Score Prediction: Astros 4, Phillies 2
Valdez goes seven innings, Houston gets a couple of hits off Suárez in the middle innings, and adds one late off the bullpen. The Phillies threaten once, maybe twice, but they don’t push enough runs across to win it!
