Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction & Betting Picks (June 22, 2025)
On Friday night, the Orioles looked like they were gonna be a big problem for the NY Yankees. But on Saturday? It did not look anything like the Baltimore that we saw play last night!
Whatever advantage that the Orioles had under the lights definitely didn’t follow them into the daylight. The second game of the series at Yankee Stadium was pretty lifeless, and Baltimore looked like they phoned in while they were also asleep.
The Orioles somehow avoided a no-hitter, but that was mostly luck. Clarke Schmidt sliced through them for seven innings, throwing a career-high of 103 pitches and giving up only two walks and a hit batter. That was it. The Yankees handed it off to the bullpen from there, and that was that.
Gary Sánchez was the one to finally hit one into center off JT Brubaker in the eighth, but by then it was 9–0. Zach Eflin had already been knocked around, and the Orioles were out of it.
Friday wasn’t a runaway win by any means (5-3), but the Orioles earned that opener win. Baltimore managed three off Max Fried, which is a tough assignment for any team, and they don’t usually hit well against Southpaws. The bullpen handled its spots, the offense came through in the eighth, and for a second? It looked like they had something.
They meet again tomorrow at Yankee Stadium in da Bronx for game 3, and the starting pitchers are listed as Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. Will Warren (NYY). Will the Yanks lineup get the best of Kremer or can the Orioles play like they did on Friday night and surprise us?
Keep scrolling to see pitching and matchup stats, betting odds, our best bets, and who we think will win!
Game Details
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (33–43) vs. New York Yankees (44–32)
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 22 at 11:35 am ET
- Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: Roku; Radio: WFAN 660/101.9 & Orioles on MASN
- Weather Forecast: It’s gonna be a hot one! It’ll be about 87°F in the Bronx
Prediction Breakdown
40.3%
59.7%
According to GamblingSite.com
Storylines & Matchups
It’s tied and a game per team, so now it’s Kremer vs. Warren. Neither pitcher has been super dependable, but with how Saturday went? NY has the advantage in pitching. And they’ve got better hitters, so Warren doesn’t have to be flawless; he just has to out-pitch Kremer.
Starting Pitchers
- Will Warren (NYY): Warren has a 4.83 ERA and hasn’t made it through the sixth inning since May 24. In his last three starts, he averaged over 80 pitches and had failed to finish out five innings. The issue isn’t velocity; it’s a control thing. Once hitters stop chasing off the plate, he has to come back over the zone, and that’s when they start squaring him up.
- Dean Kremer (BAL): Kremer’s sitting at 6–7 with a 4.80 ERA and gave up seven hits and four runs over five innings in his last outing. He’s had a lot of trouble with left-handed hitters this year (.278 opponent average), and his cutter hasn’t been getting swings. If he can’t spot his fastball early? The Yankees’ top of the order could put Baltimore in a hole before the bullpen gets going.
Offensive Trends
- Yankees: Franco’s still stuck around .210 with no extra-base hits in his last 10 games, but the rest of the lineup has covered for him. Judge has 8 home runs in June and leads the AL in hitting. Saturday’s 9-run game came on 12 singles, 2 walks, and a hit-by-pitch; no home runs, but good contact.
- Orioles: They’ve won 7 of their last 10 and are averaging 5.1 runs per game during that stretch. Gunnar Henderson’s hitting .306 over his last 10, with 4 doubles and 3 home runs. Adley Rutschman has reached base in 9 straight games, and Ramón Urías is hitting over .400 in limited at-bats since returning from an injury. Under Mansolino, the team has swung earlier in counts and has cut their strikeout rate by nearly 15% compared to earlier in the month.
Latest Betting Odds & Lines
Here are the current betting odds and lines according to ESPN BET:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Orioles | +1.5 (-125) | +155 | Over 9.5 (-120) |
Yankees | -1.5 (+105) | -185 | Under 9.5 (-EVEN) |
Main Angles and Insights
Who’s got the advantage in Game 3 of this series? It’ll depend on late-inning pitching and if the scoring slows down after Saturday’s massacre.
Run Total Trends
The total opened around 10.5 at Fox Sports and most retail sportsbooks, with the action leaning under. A few have it closer to 9.5, which shows the cooler (but not much cooler) morning temps in the Bronx and both starters’ track records with right-handed lineups. Sunday is a late morning game, so slower scoring makes sense.
Head-to-Head Stats
Aaron Judge had homered in five games in a row versus Baltimore at Yankee Stadium before Saturday’s game. He’s hitting .367 with four extra-base hits in those matchups.
As for the pitchers: Zach Eflin isn’t on the mound Sunday; his next start will be back in Baltimore. His recent road ERA (3.86 over 28 innings) shows some improvement, but since he’ll be resting after six innings on Saturday, that road split won’t come into play this series.
Our Best Bets for Orioles vs. Yankees
Where’s the value going into Game 3? Look below for what we think are the best bets!
1. Yankees Moneyline (–185)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆: The number’s short enough to back the better lineup at home.
The market’s really tight: most books have New York between –172 and –189, and that gives them around a 63–65% implied chance to win. That matches up with most sportsbook models, which also give the Yankees a 63% win probability.
With Warren on the mound against an inconsistent Kremer and the Yankees being 21–10 at home, the advantage is pretty obvious!
2. Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+105)
- Our Confidence Level ★★★☆☆: There’s good value here, especially if you think the O’s bats have a repeat of Game 2.
You can still find this at plus money, and it’s ranging from +100 to +142 depending on the sportsbook. The Yankees have covered the run line at home more than 60% of the time this season, and they’ve already beaten Baltimore by nine in this series.
If Warren gives them five? The bullpen can take care of the rest, and Baltimore’s offense really isn’t built to play catch-up.
3. Under Total Runs (O/U 9.5)
- Our Confidence Level ★★☆☆☆: There’s room for this to stay under as long as the first three innings don’t get messy.
The total is holding steady between 9 and 9.5, with the under showing value. Baltimore’s scored 3 runs or fewer in four of its last five games, and outside of Saturday, the Yankees haven’t been putting up big numbers either.
Both starters pitch to contact, but neither lineup has been barreling anything consistently over the last few games. If Warren doesn’t give up hard contact in the first two frames and Kremer doesn’t fall apart the second time through, this leans toward a lower-scoring result.
What to Expect in Sunday’s Showdown
The Yankees are the better side going into the series finale. They’re at home, they’ve hit Kremer before, and their bullpen is in better shape. Warren’s not reliable, but he doesn’t need to be if the offense shows up early. Baltimore hasn’t hit much outside of Friday and hasn’t faced a bullpen like this since last week.
Our Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5 – Orioles 3
We think it’ll be a close game in the early innings, but the Yanks will have the lead and keep it with help from the bullpen and a hit from Stanton or Judge!
Best Bets Recap
- Yankees ML (–185): The matchup favors them, and the number isn’t out of range.
- Yankees –1.5 (+105): Play this if you expect Kremer to fold before the fifth inning.
- Under 9.5 (EVEN): This is only worth it if you trust that both pitchers don’t fall behind right out of the gate
Risk Factor: If the Yankees keep leaving runners on base like they did Friday? Baltimore has enough at the top of the order to steal a lead by the middle innings.
Final advice: the Yankees ML is the safest move; the run line has upside. The under’s in play, but definitely don’t force it if the number drops!
