Indiana Pacers vs. OKC Thunder Game 7 Prediction (June 22, 2025)
The Pacers came ready for Game 6. But one player was really ready, and that was Tyrese Haliburton.
His calf injury didn’t seem to be bothering him like it was in Game 5, and if it did hurt? We’d never know it from the way he played. Backed up by his teammates, the Pacers beat the Thunder 108-91, forcing a Game 7. The series is now tied at 3-3. Plot twist!
We all thought that OKC was gonna end it in Game 6. Nope! Can we talk about Siakam’s slam over the Thunder’s Williams? We gasped.
The NBA Finals haven’t gone to a Game 7 since 2016, and the winner of this one will be the champs. The Pacers are after their first trophy, and the Thunder want to bring the glory back to Oklahoma City for the first time since the franchise was relocated.
Ball drop is Sunday at 8 pm ET, and you better be there; it’s a can’t miss game. OKC has home court advantage (35-6 at the Paycom Center), but the Pacers keep defying the odds, so who knows?
Look below for all the details! We’ll do a series recap, player matchups, the latest betting odds, and our picks for the best bets.
Game Details – Pacers vs. Thunder (Game 7)
- Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. OKC Thunder
- Series Status: Tied 3-3
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 22, at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
- Broadcast: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN App, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV
Prediction Breakdown
41.4%
58.6%
According to GamblingSite.com
Series So Far
We are 6 games in, and this Finals matchup has given us pretty much everything: blowouts, comebacks, injuries, and an unexpected Game 7. Below is where things are going into the grand finale:
- The Pacers’ Game 6 stunner: 108–91 win with Haliburton back in form, Siakam attacking, and good contributions from the second unit
- Thunder’s biggest advantage: Home court; OKC went 35–6 at the Paycom Center during the regular season and hasn’t dropped a game there in this series
- SGA’s impact: He’s been the most reliable scorer during all six games; Shai keeps OKC in it even when they lose
- Haliburton’s resurrection: After looking like he was hobbled in Game 5, he came roaring with 21 points and with a solid command of the offense in Game 6
- Bench battle: Indiana’s second unit finally changed a game; they outplayed OKC’s reserves in Game 6, and that’s a factor that could help them again if foul trouble hits either side in Game 7
Biggest Player Matchups
There is nothing new to figure out here. We are in Game 7, and everybody on the court knows who’s getting the ball and who has to stop who. Below are the players and matches that’ll settle it, one way or the other!
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton: SGA’s been in control, getting to his spots, hitting tough looks, and managing tempo when OKC needs it. Haliburton looked uninjured in Game 6; he pushed the pace and created lots of good looks for Indiana’s shooters.
- Jalen Williams vs. Indiana’s wings: Williams absolutely cooked them in Game 5 and hasn’t slowed down. He’s beating closeouts, finishing through contact, and forcing constant help rotations. The Pacers still haven’t figured out a way to keep him out of the lane.
- Indiana’s bench vs. OKC’s rotation: The Pacers got really good contributions from their second unit in Game 6; McConnell controlled the pace, Sheppard knocked down threes, and Jackson battled on the glass. OKC’s bench just couldn’t keep up during the second and early fourth quarters, which is when Indiana stretched the lead and took pressure off of their starters.
- Pascal Siakam vs. Chet Holmgren: Siakam has tested Holmgren’s positioning every game with face-ups, drives, and quick cuts off the elbow. And when Chet’s pulled away from the rim? Indiana’s offense can go to work on the inside.
Tactical X‑Factors
- OKC at home: The Thunder are 35–6 at the Paycom Center this season. The crowd feeds into their defense; they rotate fast, close out hard, and make teams work for every decent look.
- Indiana’s turnover game and outside shooting: The Pacers forced 21 turnovers in Game 6 and turned a slew of them into points. When they’re active in the passing lanes and knocking down open threes, they’re really hard to contain.
- Haliburton’s calf is still a concern: He passed the strength test before Game 6 and looked way more mobile than we expected, but it’s still a lingering issue. He played only 23 minutes. If he’s not out there, Indiana isn’t able to; they don’t generate the same shots.
Current Betting Odds
For those of you who are gonna bet on this one, here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Pacers | +7.5 (-114) | +240 | Over 215 (-108) |
Thunder | -7.5 (-106) | -295 | Under 215 (-112) |
Our Best Bets
Last call for this year’s NBA Finals! We’ve got one last round of our best bets for Game 7:
1. Pacers +8.5 Spread
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (Medium–High)
Why Do We Like It?
- Indiana’s covered in 4 of 6 games this series.
- Game 6 wasn’t close; they won by 17 and looked in control the whole time.
- They’ve kept up offensively and made just enough stops when it counts.
- Even if they don’t win? This doesn’t feel like a game they lose by 9+.
- Haliburton’s status is still in limbo, but their bench hasn’t folded when he’s been limited.
2. Over 215.5 Total Points
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Medium)
Why Do We Like It?
- Game 6 ended at 199, but that came with OKC shooting 38% and a slog of a fourth quarter.
- Game 7s usually start out close but can break open late with free throws, fouls (intentional or accidental), and quick shots.
- Both teams are averaging over 110 this postseason. Doesn’t take much to get this number over if scoring picks up in the second half.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 Points (or 35+ alt line)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Medium)
Why Do We Like It?
- SGA is averaging 31.5 PPG in the Finals and has been the centerpiece of OKC’s offense all playoffs.
- He finished with 22 in Game 6, so expect a heavier workload and more isolation looks at home in Game 7.
- He’s cleared 35+ several times already this postseason and tends to go bigger in elimination spots.
Game 7 Verdict: Pacers or Thunder?
This is it! One game for the title. Indiana’s never done it. OKC hasn’t since its Seattle days. Just 48 minutes to finish it for all the marbles.
Indiana looked more composed in Game 6 with better spacing, possessions, and solid contributions from the bench.
Gilgeous-Alexander only put up 22 in the last game. And that usually spells trouble for whoever’s in front of him in the next game.
Haliburton’s calf is still an issue, and if he can’t stay on the floor or run the offense? Indiana’s movement stalls out, and their shot quality plummets.
Who you got for this one? Whichever team you’re backing, make sure you lock in your picks before you settle in and watch history be made for either the Pacers or the Thunder!
Our Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 109 – Indiana Pacers 104
We think that the Thunder will pull ahead in the fourth, but the Pacers will cover the spread and the Total will land slightly over.
Ready to place your bets on Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals? Head over to one of the most trusted online betting sites to find exclusive bonuses and competitive odds.
