Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Preview (June 12, 2025)
The Cubs are back at Wrigley Field on Thursday night to face off against a Pirates team that hasn’t quite figured out how to win a game when they aren’t at home. Chicago sits at 41–27 with a 20–11 home record and has handled business across their last 10 games, winning seven of them. They’ve been getting good starting pitching, good bullpen work, and a top-half offense that’s been producing in the middle of the order.
Pittsburgh comes in at 28–41 and is 9–22 on the road. Andrew McCutchen tied with Roberto Clemente on the franchise home run list, and Oneil Cruz continues to put pressure on teams with his speed, but the Pirates still rank near the bottom of the National League in road scoring.
This game’s pitching matchup puts Jameson Taillon on the mound for the Cubs, and he’s only given up five runs during his last four starts. Opposite him is Andrew Heaney, who’s held his own through most of the season but doesn’t get a lot of support from his teammates.
Chicago has the better record, better bullpen numbers, and more reliable hitters in important areas, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value on both sides!
Keep reading for a breakdown of the matchup, team stats, the latest betting odds (there’s a promising player prop), and what we think are the best bets for the game.
Game Overview
- Matchup: Pirates (28–41, 9–22 on the road) vs. Cubs (41–27, 20–11 at home)
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 12, first pitch at 8:05 pm ET
- Location: Iconic Wrigley Field, Chicago
- TV / Streaming: Marquee Sports Network in Chicago (Cubs feed); SportsNet Pittsburgh and SNP 360
- Weather: Mild temps with partly cloudy skies, low dew point, and a light breeze
Prediction Breakdown
39.6%
60.4%
According to GamblingSite.com
Pitching Matchup
Andrew Heaney’s surface stats look solid, but the Pirates rarely turn his outings into wins. He’s made a habit of going five or six innings with minimal damage, only to watch games turn once he’s out. That’s not entirely on him, but it’s the reality he’s been pitching through.
Jameson Taillon has looked sharper in recent weeks—not because he’s racking up strikeouts, but because he’s been efficient. He’s limiting walks, working faster counts, and avoiding the big inning. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed just five earned runs and hasn’t been pulled early in any of them.
Then there’s the bullpen story. Chicago has given up four earned runs in its last 22 appearances. That kind of reliability isn’t just nice to have—it changes how aggressively Taillon can pitch, knowing the late innings are covered.
| Starter | Record | ERA (Season) | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Heaney (Pirates) | 3-4 | 3.24 | Keeps runs down, but stuck in no-margin games |
Jameson Taillon (Cubs) | 6-3 | 3.54 | 1.69 ERA over last 4 starts; bullpen has allowed 4 ER in last 22 games |
Heaney isn’t giving games away, but the Pirates haven’t made his outings count. Taillon is getting length, efficiency, and the kind of bullpen backing that shortens the game after six innings, and that’s the main advantage!
Main Trends & Stats
- Cubs bullpen: Over the last 22 games, Chicago’s relievers have allowed only 4 earned runs (0.80 ERA). On their last road trip, they posted a 0.47 ERA. Mark Leiter Jr. and Julian Merryweather have combined for 19 scoreless appearances during that stretch.
- Cubs offense: Chicago hit 8 home runs during a 6-game road trip, which is up from 2 in their previous 7 home games. Ian Happ and Christopher Morel each homered twice, and Cody Bellinger posted three multi-hit games and helped boost the team’s road slugging percentage above .480.
- Pirates offense: Andrew McCutchen tied Roberto Clemente’s franchise mark with his 240th home run in a Pirates uniform. Oneil Cruz has 4 stolen bases in his last 9 games. Impressive, but Pittsburgh ranks bottom six in extra-base hits on the road this season and has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 games.
Betting Lines Snapshot
Here are the latest odds and lines for the Pirates vs. the Cubs via ESPN BET:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Pirates | +1.5 (-125) | +165 | Over 7.5 (-110) |
Cubs | -1.5 (+105) | -200 | Under 7.5 (-110) |
- Home favorites: Cubs –1.5, moneyline –182.
- Opening line: Pirates +1.5, +153 moneyline. O/U 7.5
Model & Consensus
- Stats Insider projects the Pirates to cover +1.5 in roughly 57% of its simulations. That’s tied to Heaney’s ability to work through five innings while giving up no more than two runs, which is something he’s done in three of his last four starts.
- Oddsmakers are split; some sportsbooks have nudged Pittsburgh closer to even on the moneyline, factoring in Heaney’s left-handed matchup against a Cubs team that’s hit for less power at home. Others still have Chicago as the clear favorite, pricing in bullpen strength and stronger late-game metrics.
- The line movement shows uncertainty after the fifth inning. Projections stay close when Heaney is still in, but once the bullpens get involved? The numbers start leaning toward Chicago. The Cubs have posted a sub-1.00 ERA from relievers in the last three weeks, and Pittsburgh hasn’t come close to matching that in high-leverage spots.
Our Best Bets
The Cubs have advantages in every phase of the game: starting pitching, bullpen reliability, and late-game scoring. Pittsburgh’s been one of the worst road teams in the National League, and there’s no advantage in the bullpen or lineup that gives them an upper hand.
Below are our picks for the best bets that have the most value for this one!
Cubs -1.5 Runline (+Odds)
Why we like it:
- Taillon has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of them.
- The Cubs’ bullpen has given up four earned runs across their last 22 games. Once Taillon hands it off, scoring against this group has been scarce.
- Pittsburgh is 9–22 on the road and ranks in the bottom third of the league in road batting average, hitting, and runs scored.
- The run line has better value than the moneyline here; Chicago has won four of its last six by two runs or more.
Under 7.5 Total Runs
Why we like it:
- Heaney and Taillon both have ERAs under 3.60 and usually pitch into the sixth inning or later.
- The Cubs’ bullpen has been the best in baseball in the last few weeks. Pittsburgh’s hasn’t been anything to write home about, but they have kept games within reach.
- Wind is projected to come in from left field, and temps are expected to be in the mid-70s, which means conditions that usually suppress scoring at Wrigley.
- Wrigley has played smaller this season than the league average: only three home games have hit 8+ runs in the last 10.
- Trend to note: the under is 6–2 in the Cubs’ last eight home games with a total under 8.
Player Prop: Jameson Taillon Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Why we like it:
- Taillon has 98 strikeouts and only five walks this season. He’s been working through lineups well and pitching late into games.
- The Pirates rank eighth in strikeout rate vs right-handed pitching and have had a really hard time with command-driven starters.
- Taillon has gone over this number in four of his last five starts and has hit six or more strikeouts in each of his last two at Wrigley.
- Projection models put him in the 6–7 strikeout range, depending on pitch count and game flow. With how he’s been locating? This should be in play again.
Strategy Tip
If your sportsbook offers same-game parlays, there’s a three-leg combo that’s worth a look! The Cubs ML + Taillon Over 5.5 strikeouts + Under 8.5 (alt total). Here’s why:
- If Taillon clears 5.5 strikeouts, he’s probably gone six or more innings, and that lines up with a Cubs win and a lower run total.
- The under ties in with how both starters have pitched and how few runs the Cubs’ bullpen has allowed as of late.
- Taking the alternate total gives you more wiggle room than the standard 7.5 line without gutting the payout.
It’s not a wild long shot; it’s built around how the game is expected to play out if Taillon stays in his groove and the Pirates continue to come up empty with runners on!
Final Thoughts & Betting Recap
Our Final Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Pirates 3
The Cubs pull ahead once the order turns over, and Taillon gives them six clean innings before handing it off. Chicago adds on late, and the total stays just below the number. The under is still very much in play!
Chicago has the pitching advantage from the first inning up to the last. Taillon is coming off four strong starts with no signs of slowing down, and once he exits, the Cubs have relievers who’ve been minimizing contact and avoiding walks. There’s no drop-off after the starter, and that’s made it pretty hard for teams to make a comeback in later innings.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been building innings, full stop. Heaney’s been fine in short stretches, but the offense has stalled in important spots. They’re not getting doubles. They’re not moving runners. And once they get into their bullpen? The margin totally disappears.
Don’t forget to check the latest odds on your sportsbook—they can change closer to game time!
