Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3 Prediction (June 11, 2025)
The 2025 NBA Finals are all tied up at 1-1 going into Game 3. After losing Game 1 on a last-second shot, the Thunder blew out the Indiana Pacers 123-107 in Game 2. It was OKC’s fifth straight win following a loss in this year’s playoffs, and there’s an average margin of victory of just under 20 points.
Game 3 is gearing up to be a good spot for bettors: if you’re looking at sides, totals, or series prices. Why? Because historically, the team that takes a 2-1 lead in a tied Finals goes on to win it all 80% of the time!
The ball goes up at 8:30 pm ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Thunder are currently the 5.5-point favorites, and the total sits at 228.5. And so far in the series, the winner has also covered the number.
Keep scrolling for everything you need to know about Game 3 of the NBA Finals, who we think will take it, and our picks for the best bets!
Game 3 Details
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
- Series Status: Tied 1-1
- Date & Time: Wednesday, June 11, at 8:30 pm ET
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: ABC and streaming live on FuboTV
Prediction Breakdown
56.1%
43.9%
According to GamblingSite.com
Game 2 Recap
Oklahoma City took a double-digit lead in the first quarter and whooped Indiana 123–107 to even up the series. The Thunder forced 17 turnovers and closed down passing lanes all night. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren combined for 38, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was in front of the offense again. Indiana shot poorly, couldn’t hang onto the ball, and never got back within reach.
Main Storylines
We watched two very different games between these teams, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in Game 3! Here’s who and what we will be looking at:
Gilgeous-Alexander put up 38 in Game 2 and ran the show from start to end. Haliburton had the last word in Game 1 with the winning basket, but he never found a groove in the follow-up game. This one will come down to who controls possessions, sets the pace, and doesn’t make costly mistakes. So far, SGA’s done that, but Haliburton is always a threat to take over if he gets the space to work.
The Thunder have been forcing around 17 turnovers per game this postseason, and Game 2 followed that pattern to the letter. Those extra possessions? They turned into easy transition looks and threw off Indiana’s half-court rhythm. OKC doesn’t need long stretches to create separation; all they need is a few broken possessions, and they’re good.
The Pacers got a boost from Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin in Game 1, but they faded in Game 2. OKC’s bench looked better on Sunday; Alex Caruso disrupted Indiana’s guards, Lu Dort brought the usual defensive advantage, and Jalen Williams threw in scoring support. Both are running close rotations, and Game 3 hinges on which bench unit holds its ground longer.
Tactical Matchups
Game 3 turns on three factors: Who has the ball, who dictates shot selection, and who finishes possessions.
Turnover Battle
Oklahoma City forced 17 turnovers in Game 2, and eight of them were in the first quarter. They don’t gamble too much; they rotate fast, clog passing lanes, and pressure the ball without fouling. Indiana needs to cut that number down into single digits if they want to stay competitive. Anything higher keeps OKC in control.
Paint vs. Perimeter
Indiana took 37 three-point tries in Game 2 but made only 12. When they don’t shoot well from outside, their offense stalls, and there’s no backup scoring plan in place. The Thunder attacked the rim 41 times and got to the free-throw line 30 times. Unless Indiana can wall off the paint and stay out of foul trouble? The mismatch will keep happening.
Rebounding and Transition
Oklahoma City had 11 more rebounds than Indiana in Game 2, seven of them on the offensive glass. That gave them extra possessions and let them push the pace off misses. The Pacers can’t afford to do that again. They’ll need stronger work on the defensive boards and quicker recovery in transition, especially after long shots, so that they don’t fall behind in scoring stretches where their perimeter shots aren’t landing.
Betting Odds and Insights
According to DraftKings, here are the latest odds and lines for Game 3 (Updated June 11):
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
OKC Thunder | -5 (-115) | -218 | Over 228 (-110) |
IND Pacers | +5 (-105) | +180 | Under 228 (-110) |
- Series Odds: Thunder –525 | Pacers +400
FYI: Lines can change as it gets closer to game time, so don’t forget to check the latest odds!
Best Bets for Game 3
Ready for our best bets? Below are the five plays we think are worth a look!
- Thunder –3.5 (Spread) -110 | OKC is 5–0 after a loss in this postseason, winning by close to 20 points on average.
- Under 227.5 Total Points – 110 | Game 2 finished at 230, but with both sides tightening their rotations? Game 3 might slow down in terms of pace and possessions.
- Jalen Williams Over 20.5 Points -115 | He found more space to work in Game 2 and got back to 8-of-13 shooting; we expect more of the same from Jalen.
- T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 Assists +100 | Saw an increased run in Game 2 and likely earns 20+ minutes again as Indiana looks for stability.
- First Quarter: Thunder ML -130 | OKC had a double-digit first-quarter lead last game and has opened really strong in 4 of its last 5.
Prop Bet
- Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander Over 30.5 points: SGA put up 38 in Game 2 and was aggressive from the start. Indiana gave him a lot of space to work, and he made them regret it. Unless they change the coverage, he’s in a really good place to clear this number again. He’s taken 20+ shots in five of his last six games.
The Moment of Truth in Indy: Game 3’s High Stakes
It’s tied at 1–1, and Game 3 in Indianapolis puts both teams in a high-pressure position. Oklahoma City got it done in Game 2, but now they have to do it again in enemy territory.
This is the Pacers’ first Finals home game. The crowd will feed them, and Indiana plays faster in that kind of setting. The Thunder want to slow it down, force half-court possessions, and stay aggressive on defense.
Jalen Williams and Tyrese Haliburton will both have major roles in Game 3—Williams provides scoring support for Oklahoma City, while Haliburton runs Indiana’s offense and sets up shooters. The difference could be which of them stays composed against pressure and keeps their team executing in the half court.
Our Final Score Prediction: Thunder 111 – Pacers 106
We think Game 3 will be more competitive than the last outing (not a blowout), but Oklahoma City’s defensive control and more reliable support pieces give them the slight advantage in Indianapolis!
