Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Odds and Predictions

Journalism (my favorite name for a horse since Seabiscuit) is a bay colt with a near-flawless record (4 wins in 5 starts) trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli. Journalism has won three straight stakes races in California, including a hard victory in the Santa Anita Derb, where he overcame trouble and still powered home first. 

He’s a stalker by running style, meaning that he stays just behind the early leaders and then pounces—a tactical approach that tends to work well in all of the Derby chaos. 

Why Journalism Is the Fav

The bay colt has fewer holes in his résumé than any other horse. He’s shown speed, stamina, and composure in every outing. His Equibase speed figures are among the best in the field, and his pedigree (by Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare) suggests the 1¼ mile distance will be in his wheelhouse. Perhaps most importantly, Journalism is ultra-professional, and he brings his “A game” every time, which gives bettors a good feeling that he’ll fire again on Derby Day. If Rispoli can work out a decent trip from mid-pack, this colt should be right in the win conversation at the wire. Journalism has earned the favorite’s role by doing everything right so far.

Another bay colt, Sovereignty, hails from the powerhouse Godolphin stable, is trained by Hall-of-Famer Bill Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado. Sovereignty announced himself last fall with a win in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, and he continued to impress this spring after winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes and then finished a fast-closing second in the Florida Derby. He’s a deep closer, meaning that he’ll drop towards the back early and attempt to pass the pack late. 

Why Sovereignty Is a Threat

This colt has a tremendous finishing kick and proven Churchill Downs form. In the Florida Derby, he was flying late and just missed catching the winner. If there’s a hot pace up front in the Kentucky Derby (a good bet with 20 horses), Sovereignty will be coming hard down the stretch. He’s also bred for the distance by Into Mischief out of a Bernardini mare, and Mott has him peaking at the right time. 

One minor concern is that closers need some racing luck (weaving through traffic in a big field can be super tricky). But Sovereignty’s consistency (never worse than second in 5 starts) and his experience on this track make him a really strong contender. Don’t be surprised if he’s launching himself into the exacta or trifecta in the final strides.

A striking gray colt trained by Mark Cassen will be ridden by Jose Ortiz. Sandman took a while to put it all together, but he sure figured it out in his last prep—he came from far back to win the Arkansas Derby with an explosive move. He’s another late-running closer, perhaps even more extreme than Sovereignty, as he usually trails the field early.

Two words: Momentum and stamina. Sandman’s Arkansas Derby win was his first try at 1⅛ miles, and he excelled with more distance, suggesting the even longer Derby distance could suit him perfectly. He also has the pedigree for it (by Tapit, known for classic-distance progeny). 

But Sandman will need some things to go his way: a swift early pace to tire out the frontrunners, and a clean path to navigate through 19 other horses. Some experts are lukewarm on him despite his talent, noting that no horse since American Pharoah (2015) has won the Derby off a win in the Arkansas Derby, and that Sandman has lost to a couple of these rivals before. Still, best-case scenario, we could see Sandman roaring down the lane late. Even those who doubt he can win concede he could hit the board with that late kick. Keep an eye on him if the front end is falling apart—he’ll be closing in.

This talented colt is Bob Baffert’s best hope this year. Rodriguez is a dark bay who will be ridden by icon Mike Smith, and he brings a pacesetting style—he likes to be on or near the early lead. After some tough battles out west against horses like Journalism, Baffert shipped Rodriguez to New York for the Wood Memorial, and it paid off with a front-running 3½-length win under Smith. 

Baffert does NOT send a horse to the Derby unless it’s live, and he really doesn’t come unless he thinks he can win. Rodriguez gives him a legit shot at Derby victory number seven. The colt has big speed figures (one of the highest in the field with a 111 Equibase Speed Figure), and if he gets loose on the lead or sits just off a moderate pace, he could be really dangerous. 

In Santa Anita races, both Journalism and Citizen Bull got the better of Rodriguez when he dueled and faded. But the Wood Memorial showed a new dimension—he carried his speed the whole way and finished strong. Under Mike Smith (who has expertly piloted wire-to-wire Derby winners before), Rodriguez might try to steal the race on the front end. If the track is playing kindly to speed on Derby day or if he’s allowed an easier lead than expected, watch out. At 12-1, he’s the kind of upside play that could pop in a big way.

We’d be remiss not to mention Burnham Square, who’s been ultra-consistent and comes off a narrow win in the Blue Grass Stakes. Trained by Ian Wilkes and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., this colt is a dedicated closer who will be rolling late just like Sovereignty and Sandman. He hasn’t run a bad race in six starts, and he proved he can handle a fight, prevailing in a photo finish last out. 

The speed figures suggest he’s a notch below the very top, but he’ll get pace to run at, and he clearly loves a stretch battle. Burnham Square’s win at Keeneland was a bit slow time-wise, but he still earned competitive figures and showed a lot of heart. If you’re looking for a horse that could outrun his odds and maybe snag second or third (or better with racing luck), Burnham Square is one to watch. He’s the kind that could be overlooked among the other names, but come Derby? A reliable closer like this can be deadly if things get chaotic up front.

We all love a Cinderella story, and the Kentucky Derby has given us plenty. Double-digit longshots have won the last three Derbys, including 80-1 shocker Rich Strike in 2022 (the second-biggest upset in Derby history). In light of that, which underdogs could light up the tote board in 2025? The following are some sleepers (odds 20-1 or more) that merit consideration!

– Citizen Bull (20-1): Last year’s 2-year-old champ has elite speed but drew a tough rail post. A huge gamble, but if he clears the field early, he could pull off an upset.
– Final Gambit (30-1): Hasn’t raced on dirt yet but blew away the field on synthetic at Turfway. If he likes Churchill Downs, he could close into a meltdown pace.
– Chunk of Gold (30-1): A $2,500 bargain buy who keeps outrunning expectations. With a strong closing kick, he’s a real underdog to root for.
– Owen Almighty (30-1): A front-runner who could sneak into the top four if things break perfectly.