The Underdog Advantage: How to Spot and Capitalize on Upset Opportunities

Although upsets are relatively rare in sports betting, there can be much to gain from making a successful pick on an underdog team or player—you can enjoy a much bigger payout than usual and get the satisfaction of spotting an opportunity that most other people missed.

Picking bets where you can take advantage of an upset can’t be done by the seat of your pants. Bettors who find these opportunities look at statistical analysis and head-to-head matchups on both teams or players involved in the wager. You must also understand the reason the lines move, be it for the legitimate likelihood of the outcome or the bookmakers trying to balance out the betting action.

We’ll discuss how to spot and capitalize on underdog bets where you can seize opportunities on upsets. Remember that these bets involve solid research and shouldn’t be used as a day-to-day strategy. Read our guide to betting upsets, and you’ll learn when to strike, the best ways to bet on an upset, and how to use stats and data to inform your approach.

What Is an Upset?

An upset in sports betting is an entirely unexpected result. It occurs when the team or player favored to win doesn’t come through. The underdog wins over the favored player or team (who should take them handily).

Betting on upsets means that you’re getting longer odds because the likelihood of the underdog outcome is less likely to happen. However, getting the bet on the underdog right results in a bigger payout than you’d get betting on your favorite team.

In the example above, the Pittsburgh Steelers are heavily favored to win over the Cleveland Browns, and a $120 bet will profit $100. However, a $100 bet on Cleveland can yield a profit of $230 if they can pull off an upset over the Steelers. You can see that betting on Cleveland has longer odds, but you’ll profit more due to their unlikelihood of winning.

Betting on the underdog team can be much more profitable, but you cannot bet on the underdog willy-nilly and cross your fingers, hoping for them to win. Spotting good underdog betting opportunities with online sports betting is rooted in understanding why lines and odds change before the game and knowing how to identify overreactions in betting markets that create value. Additionally, researching each of your selections using statistical analysis and historical data is crucial. We’ll get into these ideas in the next section, so read on!

How Do You Predict an Upset in Sports Betting?

Before we understand the various strategies for predicting upsets in sports betting, know that upsets only happen occasionally. The favorite usually always wins, so you should expect to lose much of the time when you’re betting on upsets. Betting the underdog is inherently riskier, and you see this with the longer odds and larger potential payout. The excellent news about betting on upsets is that you don’t have to win every bet to make a profit.

Use these strategies and tricks for pinpointing upset opportunities and making the best picks possible:

Look at the Entire Context

The best bets are grounded in statistics and research—the key to long-term success in online sports betting. Working off your gut instinct, hunches, or what other people are anecdotally telling you doesn’t produce the successful results you’ll get from analyzing statistics and historical data. After all, studying prior teams’ or players’ history can be a good indicator of what could happen in the future.

So, what information are you looking into to inform these upset bets? A few of the critical factors you should be examining include the following:

• Keep in the loop on player injuries or suspensions. Sometimes, it doesn’t make much of a difference, but it could impact the outcome if it’s one of the key players. Injuries or suspensions on the favorite team, in particular, are reasonable indications that an upset is imminent.
• Check the weather before the game. If the forecast calls for snow, rain, or some other unideal condition, these are good times to bet on upsets because many of them occur during low-scoring games when the weather is terrible.
• Keep track of which teams have to travel. If the favorite team has to travel through a few time zones to get to the game, they are prone to poor performance due to jet lag or bad sleep.

Good research is your key to staying ahead of public betting sentiment and finding situations where upsets are likelier to happen. There’s still a place for betting based on your gut, but it’s only best when it’s coupled with numbers, historical data, and looking at the complete context of the game or matchup.

Use Data and Statistics to Analyze the Teams or Players

After looking at the entire context of the upcoming game or event, it’s time to research the teams or players who will be participating. Recent performances and current form can’t be emphasized when choosing your upset betting opportunities. Regardless of who the favorite or the underdog is, take some time to see how each team or player has performed recently. You can get a good idea of which momentum is moving, which could be a more accurate indicator of who will win.

Aside from determining where the primary momentum is going, there are a few other factors to consider before betting on an upset:

• Think about two teams facing off with a history of solid defense. It won’t be a high-scoring game, but these are fertile grounds for upsets.
• If the teams have opposite strengths, like the underdog being good at defense and the favorite being good at offense, an upset is less likely to occur. Look for teams with similar strengths—these bets are ripe for upsets.
• Consider betting on upsets if you’re dealing with a strong team with a super specific Achilles heel, like a quarterback who chokes occasionally.
• It’s essential to look at coaching, too. You might have a strong team with a coach who tends to follow the same strategies and style versus a weaker team with a coach who can better adapt to unexpected situations. These are prime opportunities to bet on upsets, too.

As mentioned before, looking for recent performances, such as the last five to ten games, can give you much insight into the team’s current form and the likelihood of how well they’ll perform in their next matchup.

The Importance of Line Movement

Upsets can be profitable for bettors because of the line movement in online sports betting. Knowing why lines move and how they affect value for the underdog team or competitor is the other half of successful upset betting that you’ll want to pair with the statistics and research you’re doing to inform your selections.

Bookmakers want relatively even action on either side of a bet to be profitable no matter the outcome. If the book sees that a lot of the public is backing the favorite, which happens all the time, they offer a reduced price on the odds for betting on the underdog to incentivize people to place bets on the dog. This creates value that appeals to those who are looking for a deal.

So, to balance the betting action, the books usually have odds that don’t truly reflect the likelihood of each outcome. This is why good research on your betting selections is essential. You can’t always trust the books’ numbers. The odds could actually signify the actual likelihood of who will win or lose, or they could be significantly skewed!

The Public Bets the Favorite

The casual betting public is usually drawn to wagering on the biggest names in sports and games where many points will be scored. This is why you see a lot of recreational bettors betting on your favorite team or competitor. You can find some good opportunities for betting on an upset with games like these, where a lot of the betting public will heavily favor one side because the books are bound to discount the odds for the dog—line movement. It can give you an excellent idea of what the public thinks!

Ways to Bet on Upsets

The best way to bet on upsets is with singles bets like money lines (betting on the winner), point spreads (betting the margin of victory), or over/unders (betting on the final combined score).

Money Lines

Money lines are bets where you try to predict the winner of the game correctly. Let’s go over an example of how you can successfully bet on upset for an upcoming football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers:

According to your favorite online sportsbooks, these are the odds of either team winning. The implied probability for each set of odds is as follows:

You begin researching both teams to see if there’s a chance for an upset to occur here, where the Packers can win over the Bengals. This is what you find that indicates an upset is possible:

• The Cincinnati Bengals have won the last three games in a row, but they’ve been close each time.
• One of their linebackers is on suspension, which could affect the outcome, though it’s not sure.
• If you consult historical data and look at prior games between the Bengals and the Packers, you will find that the Packers have won quite a few games against Cincinnati.

Despite this research, the Bengals remain the favorite to win this upcoming game. However, based on the statistics and data you’ve reviewed, you give them a lower probability of winning. You give them a 1 in 5 shot of reigning victorious over the Packers, which translates into 20%. When you compare this with the implied probability of 31.25% of Green Bay winning, you smell an upset, but you’ll want to get the best price possible on the odds for betting, which shouldn’t be hard considering the situation at hand!

Knowing that the Bengals are favored to win, you know all too well that most of the public’s money will go toward Cincinnati, forcing the book to lower their price on the odds for Green Bay. When betting on the Bengals gets hyped up, watch for the odds to get longer but for the prices to go down in your favor. When the line moves, place your bet!

Point Spreads

One of the safer routes for betting on upsets is doing it through point spreads or handicap betting, where you’re trying to predict the margin of victory correctly. Bettors can get excellent value on bets where the favorite is expected to win by a wide margin. You’ll get a lot of casual bettors wagering on the favorite, thus creating some good value on the odds for the dog.

Let’s look at another example of the Cincinnati and Green Bay game to give you a little more context:

Using standard American odds of -110, a bet for the favored Bengals to win means that they must win by over 4 points; otherwise, it’s considered a lost bet. Betting on the Packers results in a win if they win outright over the Bengals or lose by less than 4 points. If you’re dealing with two teams that are evenly matched when scoring points, you could be dealing with a game that could go either way, especially with a point spread this narrow.

Follow the steps outlined in our section on finding upset opportunities in moneyline betting and apply them to spread betting. Just wait for the line to move and then spring into action to get the best value possible.

Wrapping Up: Turning Underdog Insight into Betting Success

Betting on underdogs isn’t just about chasing big payouts—it’s about identifying value where others overlook it. Through careful research, understanding of line movement, and close attention to situational factors like injuries, travel, and recent performance, you can begin to spot upset opportunities that casual bettors miss. Upset betting may not produce frequent wins, but with a calculated approach, even a modest hit rate can yield long-term profitability.

Ultimately, success in underdog betting hinges on preparation and discipline. By combining statistical analysis with market awareness—like spotting sharp money or tracking public betting patterns—you equip yourself to bet smarter, not harder. Whether you’re new to betting or sharpening an existing strategy, learning how to capitalize on underdog value can give you a real edge in a market that often favors the favorite.