Week 4 NFL DFS Picks: Core Plays, GPP Targets, and Stacks
Trevor Lawrence at $5,900, a $7,700 Christian McCaffrey and a $9,100 Jaxon Smith-Njigba anchor my Week 4 NFL DFS picks for the 12-game DraftKings main slate. Lawrence and the Jaguars are my favorite stack in the highest-total game on the board (Jaguars at Bengals, 51.5), McCaffrey is the running back I’m paying for, and Jameis Winston and Brian Thomas Jr. are the cheap tournament darts I want to get different with.
Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season is here, with a nice 12-game main slate available to us at DraftKings. Last week’s NFL DFS picks were solid at a high level: we liked Geno Smith stacks and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and both ended up in the winning Milly Maker lineup.
What looks good for Week 4? Quite a bit, to be frank, as there are several inviting game environments and plenty of viable studs worth paying up for. The goal isn’t to just hand you a winning lineup, though. It’s to map out a player pool worth building with, so below are my favorite spends, the most interesting values, some fun GPP pivots and the stacks I like most.
Twelve Games and a Late-Swap Window
The DraftKings main slate for Week 4 covers 12 Sunday afternoon games: eight at 1:00 PM ET, Dolphins at Vikings at 4:05 PM ET, and Broncos at 49ers, Chargers at Seahawks and Chiefs at Raiders at 4:25 PM ET. Thursday’s Steelers at Browns game, the 9:30 AM ET Colts vs. Commanders game in London, Lions at Panthers on Sunday night and Falcons at Saints on Monday night are not on it. Nobody is on a bye this week, and rosters are the usual nine spots (a quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end, a flex and a defense) under a $50,000 cap.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most expensive player in the pool at $9,100, up from $8,600 last week. Derrick Henry ($8,400), Kenneth Walker III ($8,200) and Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100) are the only other players at $8,000 or more. CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) is next, and Josh Allen and McCaffrey share a $7,700 price tag.
What DraftKings’ Lines Say About Week 4
Jaguars at Bengals owns the top total on the slate at 51.5, two points clear of Patriots at Bills (49.5) and three clear of Cowboys at Texans (48.5). Buffalo (28.25), Baltimore (27.0) and Cincinnati (27.0) carry the highest implied team totals, with Kansas City (26.0) and Houston (25.75) next. Miami’s 14.25 is the lowest on the board, and Baltimore is the biggest favorite at 11.5 points against Tennessee.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Spread | Total | Implied Team Totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars at Bengals | 1:00 PM | CIN -2.5 | 51.5 | CIN 27.0 / JAX 24.5 |
| Patriots at Bills | 1:00 PM | BUF -7 | 49.5 | BUF 28.25 / NE 21.25 |
| Cowboys at Texans | 1:00 PM | HOU -3 | 48.5 | HOU 25.75 / DAL 22.75 |
| Cardinals at Giants | 1:00 PM | ARI -2.5 | 44.5 | ARI 23.5 / NYG 21.0 |
| Jets at Bears | 1:00 PM | CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | CHI 23.5 / NYJ 20.0 |
| Rams at Eagles | 1:00 PM | LAR -3.5 | 42.5 | LAR 23.0 / PHI 19.5 |
| Titans at Ravens | 1:00 PM | BAL -11.5 | 42.5 | BAL 27.0 / TEN 15.5 |
| Packers at Buccaneers | 1:00 PM | GB -3 | 39.5 | GB 21.25 / TB 18.25 |
| Dolphins at Vikings | 4:05 PM | MIN -10 | 38.5 | MIN 24.25 / MIA 14.25 |
| Broncos at 49ers | 4:25 PM | SF -3 | 47.5 | SF 25.25 / DEN 22.25 |
| Chiefs at Raiders | 4:25 PM | KC -4.5 | 47.5 | KC 26.0 / LV 21.5 |
| Chargers at Seahawks | 4:25 PM | SEA -7 | 42.5 | SEA 24.75 / LAC 17.75 |
Lines via DraftKings, captured Friday, October 2. Implied team totals split each total by its spread. They are the market’s numbers, not projections, and they move.
Our archive of DraftKings lines shows how much three of these games have changed since the look-ahead numbers we captured on September 1. The Giants opened as 7-point favorites over Arizona and are now 2.5-point underdogs, with Jaxson Dart out for the regular season. The Bears have gone from 8.5-point favorites to 3.5 with Caleb Williams sidelined by a hamstring strain, and Packers at Buccaneers has fallen from 46.5 to 39.5, with Green Bay flipping from a 1.5-point underdog to a 3-point favorite, since Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb.
Rain Could Hit Three Early Games
Nine of the 12 games are played outdoors, and none of them has a wind problem: the National Weather Service doesn’t forecast a sustained wind above 12 mph at any of them. Rain is the thing to watch. As of Thursday, the forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of showers in Baltimore for Titans at Ravens, a 50 percent chance in Philadelphia for Rams at Eagles, and a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms after 2 PM in Tampa, where it should also be near 89 degrees for Packers at Buccaneers. The Tampa forecast also raises the chance of a lightning delay.
The rest look fine, with sunny skies in Orchard Park, Chicago, Cincinnati and Seattle, a 30 percent chance of rain after 2 PM at MetLife Stadium and 89 degrees in Santa Clara. NRG Stadium has a retractable roof, while U.S. Bank Stadium and Allegiant Stadium have fixed roofs. These are Thursday forecasts, so check again Sunday morning.
Top Spend at Each Position for Week 4
Josh Allen is my top quarterback spend, Christian McCaffrey my top running back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba my top receiver and Brock Bowers my top tight end. I went 2-2 with my stud plays last week, hitting on Smith-Njigba (38.36 DraftKings points) and Trey McBride (16.5). Patrick Mahomes (16.94) and Ashton Jeanty (12.3) weren’t good enough.
If You Pay at Quarterback, Pay for Josh Allen
This week, I don’t see the point in spending up at quarterback. But if you do, it needs to be Josh Allen. He enters with an insane 25-point projection in my numbers thanks to his rushing floor, and we know he can go off through the air. DraftKings lists him at 33.3 points per game through three weeks, the best average of any quarterback on the slate.
I don’t love the matchup with the Patriots, and Allen came back to earth last week (20.46 points, with two interceptions offset by two rushing touchdowns). But Buffalo is 3-0, owns the top implied total on the slate at 27.5, and no quarterback comes close to his floor or ceiling.
Christian McCaffrey Is the Better Value at Running Back
There is a lot to like up top at running back. This slate is missing some key studs, but guys like Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III both look fantastic. McCaffrey is simply the better value, though. He’s down to $7,700 from $8,300 last week despite putting up 22.6 and 21.6 DraftKings points in his last two games, and he paces every running back in my projections.
His date with the Broncos is more attractive than people seem to realize, too: Denver has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs this season (about 28.7 per game). McCaffrey sat out Wednesday’s practice for rest, then practiced fully Thursday and Friday and carries no game designation.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Only Problem Is the Price
The only difference for JSN this week is that his price went up, from $8,600 to $9,100. The volume he gets is disgusting, and he’s been matchup proof: 29.2 points against the Patriots in Week 1 (eight catches, 122 yards and a touchdown), 45.5 in Week 2 and 38.36 last week.
Nobody comes within five points of his projection in my numbers this week, so whether or not you play JSN really just comes down to stomaching his hefty salary. The 0-3 Chargers visit Seattle as 7-point underdogs, and he looks amazing once again.
Brock Bowers Edges Trey McBride at Tight End
I’m not sure you can really go wrong at tight end if you’re paying for a stud this week. We get access to both Brock Bowers ($6,900) and Trey McBride ($6,500), and both can easily get 25 to 30 points. Bowers feels like the more attractive play based on his athletic traits and projection, and DraftKings lists him at 30.6 points per game for the 3-0 Raiders, but I don’t know if there’s a real wrong answer here.
Best Values for Salary Relief
Trevor Lawrence, Jeremiyah Love, Kalif Raymond and Brenton Strange are my favorite ways to save salary at each position, and Lawrence is the one I’d call my best dollar-for-dollar play on the slate.
Trevor Lawrence Is the Best Dollar-for-Dollar Quarterback
I don’t know if there is a better dollar-for-dollar play at quarterback than Trevor Lawrence. He’s displayed immense upside with 26.1 and 20.78 DraftKings points in two of his three games, he has a loaded arsenal at his disposal, and this week he faces a beatable Bengals defense that has allowed 260 passing yards per game, the fifth-most in the league.
The game has the slate’s top total at 51.5. On top of that, Lawrence is under-priced at $5,900 and comes in with the third-best quarterback projection in my numbers. Sign me up for all of that.
Jeremiyah Love Is Too Cheap for His New Role
Love is too cheap. Arizona finally handed the reins to the No. 3 overall pick last week, and Love responded with 21.9 points. The production is great, but the fascination starts with his role: he ran the ball 21 times, tacked on five catches (one for a touchdown) and out-snapped Tyler Allgeier for the first time this season.
If the Cardinals are going to commit to giving him the ball anywhere close to 25 times per game, he is flat out too cheap at $5,800. A date with the Giants doesn’t do anything to scare me off of him, either, as they’ve allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points to running backs, and Arizona has moved from a 7-point underdog to a 2.5-point favorite in this game since September 1.
Kalif Raymond Is Priced Like a Punt
Raymond is crazy cheap for the role he’s had in this dynamic Ben Johnson offense. He has churned out 16.4 and 21.0 points in two of three games, has seen at least five targets in every game, and leads the Bears with 19 catches for 214 yards. At $3,600, he’s basically priced like a punt.
I do have hesitation here. Chicago has other mouths to feed, the Jets have allowed the 11th-fewest DraftKings points to receivers, and Ben Johnson still hadn’t named his Week 4 starting quarterback on Friday, though NFL Network reports Tyson Bagent is expected to start over Case Keenum. He could be a trap, but the salary lowers the risk.
Brenton Strange Gets a Soft Tight End Matchup
Ditto for Strange, who admittedly doesn’t get reliable volume on a weekly basis (three, two and five targets so far). He’s in a similar situation to Raymond in that Jacksonville has a loaded roster. That said, Strange did score a touchdown in Week 1, and he could be called upon more due to the matchup.
Opponents have attacked the Bengals through the air rather than on the ground, and Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends so far in 2026. At $3,200, he’s the cheapest way into the best game on the slate.
Best GPP Picks to Target
Jameis Winston, TreVeyon Henderson, Brian Thomas Jr. and Tucker Kraft are my favorite tournament targets. GPP stands for guaranteed prize pool, and the ownership notes below are my expectations for how the field will build, not measured ownership numbers.
Jameis Winston Is the Quarterback Punt
I was all over Geno Smith last week, so if you want to get weird, let’s take another punt dive at quarterback. Now, to be clear, Lawrence is safer and Allen is worth a look. But Winston, the Giants’ confirmed starter with Jaxson Dart out for the regular season, is in an interesting spot against an Arizona defense that has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks and the sixth-most to receivers.
Winston projects poorly, and he threw just 22 passes in a run-heavy 12-7 win over Tennessee last week. But we know he’s aggressive, and last year he put up 36.2 DraftKings points in Detroit (366 passing yards, two touchdown passes and a touchdown catch). Arizona runs a lot of plays (66.7 per game, fourth-most), so if the Giants are going to keep up, Winston may need to air it out more than he did last week.
TreVeyon Henderson Is a Low-Owned Running Back Pivot
Hendo is a fun GPP play. He’s a pivot off of Braelon Allen at the same $5,200 price, provides savings off some of the chalk plays below $6,000, and I don’t expect him to garner much attention. New England is a 6.5-point underdog and he’s in a timeshare with Rhamondre Stevenson (23 snaps to Stevenson’s 33 last week), but the matchup with Buffalo honestly looks good.
We know he can be explosive, with a 39-yard touchdown run in Week 2, and the Bills have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to running backs (about 29.7 per game). If this game stays close, Henderson busting off long runs will be a huge reason why.
Brian Thomas Jr. Is a Way to Get Different in the Best Game
Everyone is eyeing the Jaguars vs. Bengals game, so following suit won’t get you different. However, accessing low-owned options within that game could do two things: get you stacks inside the best game of the slate, and also make you unique. BTJ is one way to do that, as I expect everyone to be off of him because of his snap count.
He played just 23 of 62 snaps last week, and Liam Coen put that down to more two-tight-end sets. The reality is he hasn’t been needed much this year (seven catches in three games), but a shootout with Cincinnati could demand his best outing of the year so far. With his price down to $4,300 from $5,500 in Week 1, he looks like an awesome tourney flier.
Tucker Kraft Is the Overlooked Middle Tier at Tight End
The attention at tight end is going up top or way down low, leaving middle-of-the-road plays like Kraft somewhat overlooked. He probably shouldn’t be ignored, though. Jayden Reed went on injured reserve Wednesday after neck surgery, which opens up more looks, and Kraft was already involved (eight targets at Atlanta last week).
Green Bay is 1-2 and in panic mode, and this week it draws a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points to tight ends. Tampa Bay will also be without Baker Mayfield, so the Packers are 3-point favorites. The 39.5 total is the second-lowest on the slate and Tampa has a storm risk, so this is a tournament play, but I think he delivers his best outing of 2026.
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 4
My favorite Week 4 stack is Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing game, and my favorite leverage plays run through the Jets and Giants. Each is listed with its team’s implied total from the betting market, which splits each game total by its spread.
Lawrence and Burrow Are the Safest Ceiling
My favorite stack in terms of safety and ceiling is Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing game. How far you go with that and which Bengals you use to run it back is another story, but this game has the highest total on the slate, the spread is only 2.5 points, and the best way for the Jaguars to generate offense should be through the air. Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins is the other side of the same bet.
Stroud Stacks Work With or Without Nico Collins
Stroud and Nico is fun if Nico is in and not limited. Collins was limited Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring strain, then practiced fully Friday and carries no game designation, so he’s on track to play. If anything changes before Sunday, we can roll out Stroud and Dalton Schultz stacks instead. Dallas has been bad on defense (27.3 points and 387 yards allowed per game), and the 0-3 Texans have to win, so I think one way or another Stroud stacks produce.
The Bears Stack Hinges on Sunday’s Quarterback
Keenum and the Bears passing game figure to be pretty popular. Obviously if Keenum is going to be super owned, I’ll try to get away from that in tourneys. But you can’t ignore that he crushed on Monday night (24.48 points in a 27-7 win over the Eagles) and knows how to execute Ben Johnson’s offense. One big catch: Keenum may not start. Tyson Bagent ended training camp as the backup, missed last week only because he was in the concussion protocol, and Johnson has made it clear that Bagent starts if he gets a full week of practice. Bagent took most of the first-team reps this week, and NFL Network reports he is expected to start, but Johnson would only say Friday that “we’ll find out on Sunday,” so confirm it before you lock this stack in. If it’s Bagent ($4,800), Raymond and Luther Burden III still work, but the cheap Keenum angle goes away.
Jacoby Brissett Brings Back His 2025 Form
Jacoby Brissett was a printing press for the Cardinals last year, averaging close to 19 fantasy points per game across 12 starts, and the Giants present a winnable matchup with Arizona favored on the road. Brissett and Trey McBride stacks make the most sense, but Michael Wilson is in play, and even a dusting of Marvin Harrison Jr. (gulp, four catches through three weeks) isn’t that crazy.
Geno Smith and Jameis Winston Are the Leverage
Geno Smith sickos unite again? It’s not that silly. The Bears want to put up a lot of points, and if the Keenum infatuation is any indicator, they just might. If so, the Jets will need to air it out for the second week in a row after Smith threw 37 passes in Detroit. Chicago made Bryce Young look like Superman in Week 1 (361 passing yards and four total touchdowns), if you recall. Kenyon Sadiq (back) was limited all week and is questionable, so check on him before you add him. Mason Taylor (thumb) and Breece Hall (quad) are both ruled out.
I already mentioned Winston. He’s quite the GPP pivot away from a likely chalky Bears passing game. It could be of the “getting too cute” variety, but his aggressive nature and the matchup have me reliving the Geno Smith magic we saw last week.
Building Winning NFL DFS Lineups in Week 4
For the most part, we should do ourselves a favor and stick to the best plays. You don’t need to get too crazy out there, folks. Just pay for the guys that look amazing, eat the good chalk, and make a few plays that nobody else will.
I’m paying for McCaffrey and one of Ja’Marr Chase or Smith-Njigba on this slate. I’m fine eating value with guys like Strange, Love and perhaps even Raymond, too. All of that opens us up to take some shots, which I’ll gladly do with some of the GPP plays and stacks above.
Build out a healthy framework and stick to the sane stuff (Lawrence, Bears stacks and so on) as much as possible. But adding darts like Thomas and similar GPP options can be just what you need to separate yourself from the pack at DraftKings in Week 4. If you’re splitting entries between contest types, my breakdown of NFL DFS cash games vs. GPPs covers how to build for each, and more slate breakdowns live on our daily fantasy sports hub.
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Frequently Asked Questions
A 12-game slate with an unsettled Bears quarterback room and rain in three early games raises a few questions. Here are the ones I get asked most about Week 4.
Who Is the Best Value Quarterback on the Week 4 DraftKings Main Slate?
Trevor Lawrence at $5,900 is my favorite. He has scored 26.1 and 20.78 DraftKings points in two of his three games, and he plays in Jaguars at Bengals, which owns the slate’s highest total at 51.5. Cincinnati has allowed 260 passing yards per game, the fifth-most in the league. Jameis Winston at $4,500 is the cheaper tournament punt.
Is Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent Starting for the Bears in Week 4?
Ben Johnson had not named a starter as of Friday, but NFL Network reports Tyson Bagent is expected to start after taking most of the first-team reps this week. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring strain, and Johnson has said Bagent, his backup coming out of camp, starts if he gets a full week of practice after clearing the concussion protocol. Keenum scored 24.48 DraftKings points in a 27-7 win over the Eagles on Monday night, so confirm the starter before you play a Bears stack with Kalif Raymond or Luther Burden III.
Is Christian McCaffrey Worth $7,700 Against the Broncos?
I think so. He’s down $600 from last week after scoring 22.6 and 21.6 DraftKings points in his last two games, and Denver has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs. He sat out Wednesday’s practice for rest, practiced fully Thursday and Friday with no game designation, and he plays in the 4:25 PM ET window, so you can late swap if anything changes.
Which Week 4 Games Should I Target for NFL DFS Stacks?
Start with Jaguars at Bengals, the only game with a total above 50 (51.5), where Cincinnati is implied for 27.0 points and Jacksonville for 24.5. Patriots at Bills (49.5) and Cowboys at Texans (48.5) are next. For leverage, I like Geno Smith with Garrett Wilson in Chicago and Jameis Winston with Malik Nabers against Arizona.
Will Rain Affect Any Week 4 Main Slate Games?
Three early games carry rain risk as of Thursday: a 60 percent chance of showers in Baltimore for Titans at Ravens, 50 percent in Philadelphia for Rams at Eagles, and a 60 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms in Tampa for Packers at Buccaneers. No outdoor venue has a sustained wind forecast above 12 mph. Check again Sunday morning.
