Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic Prediction (February 21st, 2026)
UFC Fight Night arrives this weekend, bringing a halt to a one-week break from UFC betting. There are several bouts worth targeting on this slate, and one that stands out is a showdown between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic.
Both of these guys are lethal finishers, while Neal is more experienced and has a more impressive resume behind him. Neal is also just 1-3 over his last four fights, of course, and at age 35, it’s fair to wonder if his best days are simply behind him.
Neal enters as the clear betting favorite over at DraftKings with -205 odds. The question is whether or not he’s worth backing at that price, or if Medic can finish him off. These guys are not big “go the distance” fighters, so there are other paths to success for this bout if you’re not compelled to pick a side.
I’ll break this thing down and nudge you in the right direction, and wrap things up with a final Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic prediction.
Event Overview
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
- When: Saturday, February 21
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston United States
- Schedule:Main Card – 8:00 pm ET
- How to Watch: Streaming on Paramount+
- See the full UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez card
Current Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
Check out the latest Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic odds over at DraftKings:
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
Geoff Neal | -218 |
Uros Medic | +180 |
Fight to Go the Distance | Yes (+450) | No (-750) |
Method of Victory | KO/TKO (-650) | Submission (+800) | Decision (+450) | Draw (+5000) |
What the Odds Tell Us
The odds favor Neal as the likely winner, and the pricing is very much favoring a win inside the distance, with a knockout of some sort being the most likely method of victory.
Matchup Preview & Fighter Profiles
Geoff Neal
Neal is a nasty striker who can unleash a variety of combinations, along with raw power. He has a boxing background, and he knows how to apply pressure, as well as how to finish.
His striking ability has allowed him to rack up 16 wins with 10 via knockout. He is not immune to getting finished, of course, as he has been KO’d twice and has tapped out twice. In fact, his most recent match against Carlos Prates resulted in a spinning back elbow that rocked him.
That alone doesn’t mean Neal is toast, but he’s 35 now, and he’s been tough to trust with a shaky record of late. His resume is very strong, and the matchup in front of him does favor him slightly, but if he fights like he did at UFC 319 – surprisingly timid – then he could be in serious trouble.
Uros Medic
Medic is a menace, as he is extremely aggressive. Much like Neal, he is a strong striker. He’s also fairly one-dimensional, and he will chase finishes early.
Medic’s resume is not as good as his opponent’s, but his style is what makes him a potential problem. He will be pretty relentless in pursuit, and his power and striking can end any fight in a hurry. In fact, all 15 of his professional MMA fights have ended early.
Part of that is he can leave himself open to unnecessary damage, and he can also get baited into mistakes. But that’s just the type of fighter he is, and it will make him a risky pick, but also a very interesting one when you consider the price.
Tale of the Tape
| Geoff Neal | Uros Medic | |
|---|---|---|
Record | 16-7 | 12-3 |
Age | 35 | 32 |
Height | 5’11” | 6’1” |
Reach | 75” | 71” |
Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
Style | Striker | Mixed Martial Artist |
These are two very similar fighters. They’re both vulnerable to getting finished, while 24 of their combined 28 victories have come by stoppage.
They are both strikers at heart, while they both have some red flags. Medic loses a huge four inches in reach to Neal, while he also has never had a single fight go the distance. Neal is older by three years and has suspect form as well.
Key Matchup Factors to Watch
Check out some key Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic matchup angles for this bout:
- Grappling: There is no real grappling edge here, but that’s the type of fighter Neal has actually had trouble with. His takedown defense is fantastic, though, and Medic is not a big threat to try taking the fight to the mat.
- Stand and Trade: These guys are pure strikers, but Neal is the more technical fighter, and he also has better pacing and superior defense overall. He won’t leave himself open to as much damage as Medic will, although his last fight creates skepticism that he still has the killer instinct he needs in a fight like this.
- Reach Advantage: The four inches Neal has in reach is pretty huge here. He doesn’t have to worry about takedowns, so he can just use that reach to keep Medic at bay and/or pick him apart with jabs and combinations.
Best Bets & Betting Strategy
Check out my top Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic bets for this weekend:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Geoff Neal ML (-218) | Neal has the reach edge, he’s better defensively, he’s more patient, and he’s just as nasty with his striking. Medic will come at him early, but I think his approach should allow him to get the KO win early. | 7/10 |
Under 1.5 Rounds (-188) | There’s a tiny chance Medic wins, but if he does, it’s almost definitely coming early. Both guys can take care of business right away, so betting on this thing finishing in the first round makes a lot of sense. | 8/10 |
Odd lines are tightening for Neal vs Medic as bettors hammer the Under 1.5 and inside-the-distance props. Compare updated UFC odds at our trusted UFC betting apps.
Risk Factors & Things to Watch
Things can go wrong when betting on a high-variance sport like MMA. Here’s why our Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic picks could fail:
- Instant KO: The major issue here is that Medic still has that raw power and a general lack of regard for his own body. If he just goes all out and bombards Neal early, he could finish him off in the first round and ruin things for us.
- Decision Time: Nothing about this fight says it will go the distance. However, the pricing associated with the most likely outcome (KO) is not worth targeting. It’s also always possible two strikers are more careful than usual, and they dish out damage, but don’t cave.
The Bottom Line: Geoff Neal Bounces Back, Finishes Medic in 1st Round
The pricing for this bout kind of stinks. Neal definitely looks like the correct call, but you’re earning money at -205. If you’re looking for a Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic prediction, though, I do think hammering his moneyline makes the most sense.
Neal is older and coming off a pretty brutal effort, but he is still the better striker, has superior defense, and is more patient. Medic is 100% live for the upset, while none of his fights have ever gone all the way. One way or another, I am quite confident someone is getting knocked out, and history suggests Medic is probably the one to get put to sleep here.
You can also target this fight to go Under 1.5 total rounds, while you can definitely go after the two additional bets below with even greater confidence.
Final Prediction Summary
- Match Winner – Geoff Neal -218| Confidence: 7/10
- Total Rounds – Under 1.5 -188 | Confidence: 8/10
- Fight to Go the Distance – No -750 | Confidence: 10/10
- Method of Victory – KO/TKO -650 | Confidence: 10/10
