MLB DFS Picks & Stacks for Monday (8/31/26)
Monday’s seven-game MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings is an interesting one. Jacob deGrom sits alone at the top of my pitcher rankings at $8,800 and draws the softest matchup on the card, there is a game at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, and Coors Field hosts a showdown between two offenses with real power. This slate could be fun or it could be absolutely horrible.
The hitting stands out for sure. deGrom has not been reliable lately, though, and behind him sits a litany of risky arms, so pitcher is where tonight gets decided. Taj Bradley at $8,700 is the pivot, Gage Jump at $7,700 is the value, and Peter Lambert at $8,400 is the tournament swing. One more thing before you build: the Denver forecast is a lot worse than my morning read of it, and it lands squarely on the two stacks at the top of my board.
Slate Breakdown
Baltimore is the only offense the betting market separates from the field, posted at a 5.5 implied team total. Eight teams sit together at 4.5: Colorado, Milwaukee, the Cubs, the Yankees, the Phillies, Texas, Houston and Minnesota. Detroit, the White Sox, Arizona and the Angels are all at 3.5, and Sacramento brings up the rear at 2.5. Those are posted lines from four regulated books rather than projections of ours.
My own board had eleven offenses above 4.0 when I built it this morning. The posted numbers are tighter than that, with nine teams at 4.5 or better and nobody at all in between 3.5 and 4.5, so the middle of this slate is flatter than my model says it is. Two things follow from that. The market is not telling you much about who to stack outside of Baltimore, and the smallest number on the board, Sacramento at 2.5, is a full run clear of the next-lowest offense.
Two Hitting Environments Stick Out Like Sore Thumbs
Coors Field is the best hitting environment in baseball and it is not close. It ranks first of 29 venues on the 2026 Statcast park factors at a 125 runs index, 19 points clear of the four-way tie for second. Baltimore hits there tonight with Kyle Bradish making the trip in the other direction, out of Camden Yards at 104 and into the biggest park upgrade a hitter can get.
Wrigley is the other one, though the number is more complicated than the reputation. The National Weather Service has 83 degrees and a 10 mph wind out of the south-southwest at first pitch, which at Wrigley blows from behind home plate toward the outfield. That is the classic blowing-out setup. The park itself is a different story: Wrigley ties for 22nd of 29 at a 94 runs index, and only its 105 home-run index plays above average. Wind and warm air can override a park for one night, but the baseline here is a pitcher’s yard, and Coors ahead of Wrigley is not a close call for me tonight.
The Starting Pitching Is Thin Behind deGrom
Fourteen arms are listed to start and the pool tops out at $9,000. Here is the whole thing, with the implied run total the opposing offense carries into the game.
| Listed Starter | Salary | Matchup | Opponent Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | $9,000 | MIL at CHC | 4.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | $8,800 | TEX vs. ATH | 2.5 |
| Taj Bradley | $8,700 | MIN vs. DET | 3.5 |
| Peter Lambert | $8,400 | HOU vs. CWS | 3.5 |
| Clay Holmes | $8,200 | CHC vs. MIL | 4.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | $8,000 | ARI vs. PHI | 4.5 |
| Walbert Ureña | $8,000 | LAA vs. NYY | 4.5 |
| Gage Jump | $7,700 | ATH at TEX | 4.5 |
| Kyle Bradish | $7,500 | BAL at COL | 4.5 |
| Aaron Nola | $7,200 | PHI at ARI | 3.5 |
| Anthony Kay | $6,500 | CWS at HOU | 4.5 |
| Jackson Jobe | $6,500 | DET at MIN | 4.5 |
| Elmer Rodríguez | $6,300 | NYY at LAA | 3.5 |
| Tanner Gordon | $6,000 | COL vs. BAL | 5.5 |
One column tells most of the story. deGrom draws a 2.5 implied total and every other arm on the board faces 3.5 or better. That gap is the reason I keep coming back to him even after the month he has had.
Where the Parks Help, and Where They Do Not
Globe Life Field is the best pitching environment on the slate at an 86 runs index, 28th of 29, which is the foundation under both Texas arms tonight. Target Field ties for second at 106, so Taj Bradley is working uphill. Chase Field also ties for second at 106 while carrying a 92 home-run index, a park that produces offense without producing power. Angel Stadium sits 19th at 98 with a 106 strikeout index.
One correction to something I said this morning. I had Peter Lambert pitching in a pitcher’s park, and Daikin Park is not one. It ranks 8th of 29 at a 102 runs index with a 113 home-run index, so it is neutral for scoring and above average for the long ball. Lambert is still a fine tournament arm, but the case rests on his splits rather than his address. Three of tonight’s seven games are under a retractable roof in Texas, Houston and Arizona, and the four outdoor parks are Coors, Wrigley, Target Field and Angel Stadium.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers for 8/31
Jacob deGrom at $8,800 is the arm to build around, Taj Bradley at $8,700 is the pivot at nearly the same price, Gage Jump at $7,700 is the value that pays for bats, and Peter Lambert at $8,400 is the tournament swing.
Jacob deGrom ($8,800): The Easy Click, With a Catch
deGrom appears to implode every other game, and he did exactly that in his last outing. Hopefully that means we are safe. Jokes aside, he tops my projections by a wide margin, and the matchup could hardly be better. He is home in the most pitcher-friendly park in the sport, and a watered-down Sacramento lineup carries the slate’s lowest implied total at 2.5.
Watered down is the right phrase. The Athletics have six bats on the injured list, including Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom, and the group actually available tonight carries a .136 ISO between them by plate appearance. Their season mark against right-handed pitching is .153, so what shows up in Arlington is meaningfully thinner than the season line suggests. deGrom’s 29.4 percent strikeout rate is the ceiling, and that is the whole case.
Two caveats belong on the record. Over his last six starts he has been poor in three of them, on August 1 against Houston (3.1 innings, five earned), August 13 against the Angels (two innings) and August 25 against the White Sox (3.2 innings, eight earned). Those same six starts total roughly 25 innings, about 4.2 per outing against a season rate of 5.2, so the leash is shorter than an $8,800 price implies. And while he tops my own board, DraftKings’ listed season averages do not agree: they rank Kyle Harrison at 18.6 and Taj Bradley at 17.7 ahead of deGrom’s 17.3. That is a season average rather than tonight’s projection, but it is worth knowing which number you are looking at.
Taj Bradley ($8,700): The Pivot at the Same Price
Bradley is the clear pivot. He costs $100 less than deGrom and sits second on my board, and his season line backs it up at a 3.97 ERA with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate. The strikeout upside is there.
I do not love the spot or the projected ownership. Target Field ties for second of 29 on the runs index, and Detroit carries a .166 ISO against right-handed pitching. Bradley’s soft side is the same side Detroit swings from best: he has walked 11.4 percent of the left-handed batters he has faced and given up a .179 ISO with 15 home runs across 369 batters. The one break in his favor is that the Tigers arrive short, with Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter both on the injured list, which takes real thump out of a lineup I would otherwise call dangerous. My ownership projection has him around 30 percent, and no contest ownership is published before lock, so treat that as a direction rather than a number.
Gage Jump ($7,700): The Value That Funds a Stack
Jump is the best value at pitcher tonight. He is under $8,000, he gets the same 86-index park deGrom does, and he has shown solid strikeout stuff at a 25.2 percent rate. Texas whiffs plenty against left-handers too, striking out 24.2 percent of the time in that split.
The profile is dicey, which is why he is priced here. A 4.69 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and a 10.9 percent walk rate are all real, and Texas has some pop in the lineup at a .164 ISO against left-handed pitching. His own exposure is to right-handed bats, where he has allowed a .170 ISO and seven home runs across 286 batters faced. I would play both sides of this game rather than pick one, but he is shaping up as a strong SP2.
Peter Lambert ($8,400): The Tournament Swing
Almost nobody is going to play Lambert tonight, and I understand why. deGrom is the easy click and Bradley is right behind him, which should keep Lambert’s exposure down even though the matchup is better than it looks. That is the entire appeal.
He gives up nothing to left-handed hitters: a .083 ISO with five home runs across 300 batters faced, behind a 3.66 ERA and a 23.1 percent strikeout rate. That matters because Chicago’s power skews left, and the White Sox carry a .167 ISO against right-handed pitching. What the split does not cover is the walks. Lambert has handed free passes to 13.3 percent of the lefties he has faced, and a 9.3 percent team walk rate on the other side means the traffic is real. Wide range of outcomes, low projected ownership, and a park that gives him no help. That is a tournament arm rather than a cash-game arm.
One name I left off the board deserves a mention. Kyle Harrison at $9,000 is the most expensive listed starter on the slate and the leader in DraftKings’ own season averages, with a 2.79 ERA and a 30.0 percent strikeout rate. I am not playing him because the Cubs hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching (.186 team ISO against .174) and Harrison has allowed a .177 ISO with 13 home runs to right-handed bats. If you disagree with that read, he is a defensible alternative to any of the four above.
Top MLB DFS Hitters for Monday
Gunnar Henderson at $6,200 is the top spend, Dylan Beavers at $4,100 is the cheapest real access to Coors Field, and Ben Rice at $6,100 is the tournament bat I like most.
Gunnar Henderson ($6,200): No Discount in Coors
You do not get a discount with the Orioles tonight. Pete Alonso looks great here too, but Henderson is $500 cheaper at $6,200 and the platoon points his way. Henderson bats left-handed and carries a .166 ISO against right-handed pitching across 418 plate appearances.
Tanner Gordon is the reason. He has been much worse against left-handed hitters in 2026, striking out just 19.0 percent of them while giving up a .273 ISO and 12 home runs across 210 batters faced. Against right-handed bats that ISO drops to .188. A lefty with real power, in the best hitting park in baseball, against a right-hander who cannot miss bats or contain lefty power is about as clean as a top spend gets on this slate.
Dylan Beavers ($4,100): Cheap Access to the Best Park
We can stay in Baltimore for the best value on the board. Beavers is barely over $4,000 and he walks into Coors Field with the same platoon advantage Henderson has.
His number against right-handed pitching is a .161 ISO across 225 plate appearances, which is a genuine power mark for a bat at this price. Given what Gordon does to left-handed hitters, I am happy to trust it. Saving $2,000 against the top of the hitter pool while getting into the 125-index park is the kind of roster construction that lets you pay up twice elsewhere.
Ben Rice ($6,100): The Tournament Spend Outside the Obvious Parks
Rice looks like a killer tournament spend. He projects well, he is in a fine park for scoring, and he is neither in Wrigley nor Coors, which is exactly why the Yankees may go overlooked. That is the thing to exploit.
The power is not in question. Rice has a .305 ISO against right-handed pitching with 25 of his 35 home runs coming off righties, and he is the most expensive Yankees bat by $1,000. The matchup is what will curb the field’s exposure, and fairly so: Walbert Ureña has allowed a .092 ISO and three home runs to left-handed batters across 273 batters faced, behind a 2.94 ERA. The way in is his control. Ureña has walked 15.4 percent of the lefties he has faced and 12.8 percent of everyone, and he strikes out only 19.4 percent of left-handed bats. Free passes are how this game gets away from him.
Monday’s Best MLB DFS Stacks
Baltimore is in the best spot on the slate and the market agrees, posting the Orioles alone at 5.5. Colorado, Milwaukee, the Cubs and the Yankees fill out my core, and the Angels, Athletics and Phillies are where I go to get different. The numbers in the board below are the posted implied totals, and the order is mine, because outside of Baltimore the market has these offenses stacked on top of each other.
Baltimore Orioles (5.5). No need to overthink this one. Coors Field is great for scoring, the Orioles have power, and Tanner Gordon has been much worse against left-handed hitters all year. I am starting Orioles stacks from the left side, and finishing them with Alonso is a good idea if he is in the lineup. Their .161 ISO against right-handed pitching understates the group in this park.
Colorado Rockies (4.5). Colorado looks almost as good from the other side and may be more appealing once you factor in projected ownership. The Rockies carry a .174 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Kyle Bradish arrives with a 21-point park downgrade from Camden Yards, a 21.8 percent strikeout rate that misses nobody, a 10.5 percent walk rate against left-handed bats and a .165 ISO allowed to that side. Hunter Goodman at $5,600 is their most expensive bat and he is available. Stack your Rockies, once Baltimore confirms Bradish.
Milwaukee Brewers (4.5) and Chicago Cubs (4.5). I am less interested in Wrigley than the wind suggests, and it comes down to the pitching. Clay Holmes genuinely suppresses power, having allowed a .107 ISO to lefties and a .037 mark to righties with four home runs in 303 batters faced behind a 2.26 ERA. Kyle Harrison is the tougher read: he holds left-handed bats to a .095 ISO but has surrendered a .177 ISO and 13 home runs to right-handed hitters, and the Cubs hit lefties better than righties. Both stacks stay viable, and I have no interest in either pitcher, but Coors ahead of Wrigley is where I land.
New York Yankees (4.5). New York is my third favorite stack in practice and I am placing them ahead of both Wrigley teams. Ureña’s power prevention is the part I do not love, but the strikeouts and walks are troubling for him, and the Yankees are built to punish that with a 10.2 percent walk rate against right-handers. One thing to price in: this lineup is carrying a .178 ISO against righties while Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both on the injured list, so the version of New York you are stacking is not the version the season numbers describe.
Where I Go to Get Different
The three leverage plays are the Angels, the Athletics and the Phillies. All three should be quieter than the Coors game, and each one is a tournament play rather than a cash-game play. If getting to under-owned offenses is new to you, our guide to finding low-owned MLB DFS stacks covers the approach.
Los Angeles Angels (3.5). I said this morning that the Angels appeal partly on park factor. That was wrong, and Angel Stadium is 19th of 29 at a 98 runs index with a 106 strikeout index. The real case is Elmer Rodríguez, who strikes out only 15.2 percent of batters and walks 12.4 percent of them, 15.2 percent against lefties and 10.2 percent against righties. I also had the handedness backwards: I called the Angels’ right-handed bats the downside here, and right-handed hitters are actually hitting .283 off him against .206 for lefties. Sample size is the caveat, since that is 5 starts and 23 innings, but the split runs in the Angels’ favor rather than against them.
Sacramento Athletics (2.5). Even sneakier are the A’s, and this is less about liking them than about taking a small position against deGrom. I strongly prefer leaning into him. But he has been poor in three of his last six starts, and if he runs it back after the eight-earned-run outing, the Athletics could tee off in the one game where nobody would have them. Keep it small, and remember why their total is 2.5 with six bats on the shelf.
Philadelphia Phillies (4.5). Philly is going to get overlooked because of the more obviously smashable spots elsewhere, even though the market has them level with the Cubs and the Yankees. They carry a .166 ISO against right-handed pitching, with Kyle Schwarber ($6,300) and Bryce Harper ($5,800) both swinging from the left side against Brandon Pfaadt, who strikes out 16.7 percent of batters and has allowed a .190 ISO and 11 home runs to left-handed hitters. Chase Field ties for second on the runs index at 106 while sitting at a 92 home-run index, which is exactly what I meant about a park that is very good for offense without being good for power. The Phillies closing out the night at low ownership sounds fun, and the Arizona start is still unannounced.
Building Your Monday DFS Lineups
Every successful build tonight starts with the Texas pitcher. deGrom is still capable of being very good, he is in the best park in the sport for pitching, and this version of the Athletics is not one to fear. A small dash of Sacramento in non-deGrom lineups is fine, and that is where the leverage against him lives.
You can get different at SP2. I would rather not pair deGrom with Bradley, so doing virtually anything else at the second pitcher slot makes your arms unusual compared with the field. Jump is the version of that I like best, because it saves $1,000 against Bradley and gets me to both sides of the game I am already invested in.
On offense I am fine rolling out either side of Coors or Wrigley, with the Rockies likely to be cheaper and less owned than Baltimore. For leverage, the Yankees and Phillies are the offenses I find most interesting: good spots, real ceilings, and the kind of exposure the field skips because more attractive hitting environments exist elsewhere. Whatever you build, keep the Denver forecast open, because a postponement there takes out both of the stacks at the top of the board. Our breakdown of weather strategy in MLB DFS goes deeper on how to handle nights like this one.
Build the Core in the Optimizer
Want to build around these plays? The optimizer below opens with tonight’s DraftKings pool loaded and my core already locked in: deGrom and Jump on the mound, with Henderson, Beavers and Rice in the lineup. Bradley and Lambert are alternatives to those arms rather than additions, so unlock whichever pitcher you want to swap. Every projection is yours to edit, and the lineup rebuilds around whatever you change. The full-page version lives on our DFS lineup optimizer if you would rather start from a clean board.
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Frequently Asked Questions
A few things readers ask me most weeks, plus three that are specific to this slate.
Which pitcher should I build around on Monday’s DraftKings main slate?
Jacob deGrom at 8,800 dollars is the arm I want. He is at home in Globe Life Field, which ranks 28th of 29 on the 2026 Statcast runs index, and Sacramento carries the slate’s lowest implied team total at 2.5 runs, a full run below every other offense. The Athletics have six bats on the injured list and the group actually available carries a .136 ISO between them. The catch is his recent form: deGrom has been poor in three of his last six starts and has averaged about 4.2 innings across that stretch, so the price assumes more length than he has been giving.
Is the Coors Field game actually going to be played?
It was still listed as scheduled at publication, but the risk is real. The National Weather Service has Denver at a 62 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the 6, 7 and 8 PM MT hours, and first pitch is 6:40 PM MT. That is the highest precipitation number on the slate by a wide margin. A postponed game scores zero for every player in it, and it does not give you the roster spot back, so if you are stacking Baltimore or Colorado, check the Denver forecast right before the 7:40 PM ET lock and have a pivot ready.
Should I stack the Rockies if Baltimore has not announced a starter?
Only after you confirm it. MLB still lists the Baltimore probable as TBD while DraftKings has Kyle Bradish at 7,500 dollars with no injury flag and prices every Rockies hitter against him. The whole case for the stack is Bradish specifically: a 21-point park downgrade from Camden Yards to Coors, a 21.8 percent strikeout rate, a 10.5 percent walk rate to left-handed bats and a .165 ISO allowed to that side. A different arm changes that math entirely. The same applies to the Phillies stack, where Arizona’s starter is also unannounced and DraftKings lists Brandon Pfaadt.
Why would I stack the Phillies when they are not in Coors or Wrigley?
Because the market has them level with the teams that are, and nobody is going to notice. Philadelphia sits at a 4.5 implied total, the same number as the Cubs, Brewers and Yankees, and Chase Field ties for second of 29 on the runs index at 106. Brandon Pfaadt strikes out just 16.7 percent of batters and has allowed a .190 ISO and 11 home runs to left-handed hitters, which points straight at Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. One thing to know about the park: its home-run index is 92, so this is a spot for hits and traffic more than for a barrage of homers.
What does it mean when DraftKings lists a hitter as day-to-day?
It means the decision has not been made yet, which is different from being ruled out. Pete Alonso is listed day-to-day at 6,700 dollars tonight and Samuel Basallo at 5,000 dollars, and both could easily be in the lineup. The risk is the timing. If a day-to-day player is scratched after the 7:40 PM ET lock, you do not get the roster spot back in a classic contest, and you play the rest of the night a man down. Wait for the posted lineup card before you commit, and keep a same-priced replacement in mind.
