Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction (9/13/2026): Sunday Night Football Week 1 Pick
Malik Nabers will make the call himself, about 90 minutes before kickoff, on whether his first game since ACL surgery comes against the Cowboys on Sunday night, and Dallas already knows it is playing without All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith, who went on injured reserve last week. Strip both names out and the matchup still tilts one way: a quarterback who threw for the third-most yards in the NFL last season against a Giants defense that traded Dexter Lawrence and allowed 5.3 yards a carry, worst in the league. That is why we lean Cowboys -3 at -105 (DraftKings), weighted at three-quarters of a unit rather than a full one.
Sunday Night Football opens its season at MetLife Stadium at 8:20 p.m. ET with John Harbaugh’s first game as Giants head coach and Dak Prescott, 14-3 against New York as a starter. The number has sat at 3 everywhere since September 8, so this is a lean on matchup and price. Our Cowboys vs. Giants prop card covers five player props in this game.
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Nabers Decides at 6:50 p.m., and Dallas Already Lost Its Left Guard
Malik Nabers is a game-time decision. The Giants listed him as questionable (knee) on Friday’s final injury report after three full practices, and Nabers says the decision is his: “I can’t put my career at risk.” ESPN reported Saturday that it will come down to the 6:50 p.m. ET inactives, and he averaged 117 receiving yards in his first three games against Dallas.
Tyler Smith is out for at least four games. The All-Pro left guard had thumb surgery and went on injured reserve on September 7, so T.J. Bass starts. Malik Davis (hip) is also out; nobody else carries a game status.
From -2.5 to -3: How the Line Got Here
DraftKings posted this game at Cowboys -2.5 and held it there for more than three weeks before moving to 3 on September 7. Our odds archive has tracked the line since August 13, and the path is a slow drift toward Dallas.
| DraftKings (ET) | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 13 (first snapshot) | DAL -2.5 (-105) | 48.5 | DAL -148 / NYG +124 |
| Sept. 7, 11:29 a.m. | DAL -3 (-110) | 48.5 | DAL -162 / NYG +136 |
| Sept. 9, 8:14 a.m. | DAL -3 (-105) | 48.5 | DAL -162 / NYG +136 |
| Sept. 13, 7:30 a.m. | DAL -3 (-105) | 48.5 | DAL -162 / NYG +136 |
Pinnacle, the sharpest book in the archive’s overseas sweep, opened Cowboys -2 (-127) on August 14 and now sits at -2.5 (-131) with its moneyline at -167, up from -156. That proves nothing about Sunday night; it does say the books have spent a month making Dallas more expensive, worth knowing at -105. Track the number with our line-movement tracker.
Why -3 at -105 Beats the Moneyline at -162
At DraftKings on Sunday morning the Cowboys were -3 (-105), the moneyline Cowboys -162 / Giants +136, and the total 48.5 (Over -105 / Under -115); by late afternoon Dallas -3 had been bet to -112 and the total to 47.5, and the live line below tracks it from here. Vig removed, -162 implies about a 59 percent chance for Dallas: the market’s read, not ours. Three is the NFL’s most common winning margin, so laying -3 at -105 turns a field-goal Dallas win into a push instead of a loss and costs 1.05 to win 1 rather than 1.62 (our point-spread guide covers key numbers).
Dak Is 14-3 Against the Giants, With One Loss Since 2016
Prescott is 14-3 against New York as a starter. Two losses came as a rookie in 2016; the third was the 34-17 loss on January 4, 2026, a game Dallas treated as a rest day (Prescott threw 11 passes in one half). Before that, Dallas had won nine straight in the series.
| Last five meetings | Site | Final |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 10, 2023 (Week 1, SNF) | MetLife | Cowboys 40-0 |
| Sept. 26, 2024 | MetLife | Cowboys 20-15 |
| Nov. 28, 2024 (Thanksgiving) | Dallas | Cowboys 27-20 |
| Sept. 14, 2025 | Dallas | Cowboys 40-37 (OT) |
| Jan. 4, 2026 (Week 18) | MetLife | Giants 34-17 |
The 2023 opener was the last Week 1 Sunday night meeting: 40-0 Dallas, with seven sacks. Giants Country counts New York 1-5 in openers since 2020, outscored 162-62. Harbaugh is the counterweight: he went 12-6 in openers with Baltimore, 8-1 at home, and this is the ninth Week 1 primetime meeting between these teams.
Burns and Carter Against T.J. Bass, Williams Against a 5.3-Yard Run Defense
The Giants’ best path to a cover runs through the Dallas interior. Brian Burns had 16.5 sacks last season, Abdul Carter’s 23 quarterback hits were the most by a Giants rookie since 2006, and they get a left guard making his first start of the year.
The other side of the line is where the lean comes from. Javonte Williams ran for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first Dallas season, and the Giants allowed 5.3 yards a carry in 2025, 32nd in the league, before trading Lawrence for the No. 10 pick. Two new starting linebackers, Tremaine Edmunds and No. 5 overall pick Arvell Reese, replace a group that missed 18.4 percent of its tackles, second-highest in the NFL. Prescott also gets CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (168 catches, 2,506 yards between them last year) against a secondary learning a new scheme under Dennard Wilson.
Dallas allowed 30.1 points per game in 2025, the most in the NFL, and its rebuilt defense (coordinator Christian Parker, edge Rashan Gary, rookies Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence) plays its first game together after a 35-sack season that tied for 24th. Jaxson Dart ran for a franchise-record nine touchdowns as a rookie, and this Dallas run defense gave up 24 rushing touchdowns, tied for the most in the league. A Giants team that stays on the ground and finishes drives can keep this inside three.
Cowboys -3 Gets the Call at Three-Quarters of a Unit
Take Cowboys -3 at -105 (DraftKings). Dallas’s passing game meets a defense that traded its best player and was last in yards per carry, the quarterback is 14-3 against this opponent, and the market has spent a month making Dallas more expensive. It stays a lean because 3 is the key number, Nabers could play, and a Dallas defense that gave up 511 points has not yet proven it is fixed. Weather is a non-factor (78 degrees and a 2 mph breeze at kickoff, per the National Weather Service). The side is the bet we are grading.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Nabers, kickoff, spread versus moneyline, and the total.
When will we know whether Malik Nabers plays, and what does it change for this bet?
Inactives post about 90 minutes before the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, and the decision is his after three full practices. If he plays, the Giants get back a receiver who averaged 117 yards in his first three games against Dallas, which is why this is a lean.
What time is Cowboys vs. Giants on September 13, and what channel is it on?
Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium on NBC, with streaming on Peacock and a broadcast on Universo. It is the Sunday Night Football season opener and John Harbaugh’s Giants debut.
Why lay Cowboys -3 instead of taking the Dallas moneyline at -162?
Three is the NFL’s most common winning margin, so -3 at -105 turns a field-goal Dallas win into a push instead of a loss and costs 1.05 to win 1 rather than 1.62. Vig removed, -162 implies about a 59 percent chance for Dallas.
Should I bet the over 48.5 in Cowboys vs. Giants instead of the side?
The over is the popular play: Cowboys games reached 49 or more points in 13 of 17 last season, per CBS Sports, and the last two meetings produced 77 and 51 points. We are not carding it; Cowboys -3 is our graded bet.
